Nixon: Diplomatic Genius Or Mad Bomber?

• Eisenhower's VP - exceptional apprenticeship in foreign affairs
•  wanted to help French @ Dienbienphu with airstrikes - willing to use small nukes

• defeated in 1960 presidential election - held no political office for 8 years afterward & stayed in news with foreign policy announcements
•  said victory in Vietnam essential to survival of freedom - ironic
•  leader of Republican opposition to foreign policy - Nixon spurred Democrat Johnson in to greater involvement - whatever Johnson did Nixon urged more
• approved the sending of American ground troops
• "The United States cannot afford another defeat in Asia"
• called for victory and nothing less - victory = two independent Vietnamese states, one not Communist
• 1964 onward Nixon aimed at being the 1968 Republican presidential candidate
• as a Republican he naturally accused the Democrat Johnson of getting everything wrong
• criticised Johnson for lacking new ideas, but had none himself.

• Nixon seemed the last man likely to advocate withdrawal from Vietnam
• criticised the anti-war protestors as a traitorous minority

Tet/Vietnamisation

• 1967 - Nixon seemed last man likely to advocate withdrawal
•  criticized anti-war protesters as traitors
•  early 1968 Tet shocked Nixon - large turning point
•  started to call for increase use of S.V soldiers - became known as Vietnamisation
•  US forces withdrawn while AVRN strenghtened - stopped talking about escalation
• no more talk of a 'victorious peace', only 'honourable peace'
• "I pledge to you, new leadership will end the war and win the peace in the Pacific"

Could Thieu survive without US forces?

• He probably genuinely believed that Thieu could survive with the help of a change of emphasis in American aid and radical change of diplomatic direction
• America needed to diversify its methods in Vietnam - i.e using diplomatic leverage with the S.U
• emphasised that world Communism had changed - no longer a monolithic Communist bloc, therefore next President should replace the era of confrontation with era of negotiation

Johnson and peace talks in 1968

• final months of Johnson presidency were dominated by Paris Peace Talks
• Doves suggested a bombing halt - would lead Hanoi to negotiate a coalition gov.
• Nixon couldn't allow this, as his 'peace with honour' necessitated the continuation of Thieu's Saigon regime
• October 1968 - possibility of a breakthrough in Paris Peace Talks - Hanoi offered Thieu an opportunity to remain in power with a coalition government
• Nixon disliked idea of a coalition and feared that successful talks would ruin his chance of beating Hubert Humphrey, the Democrat presidential candidate - if Democrats bought end to the war their approval would skyrocket, and Johnson already said not re-electing himself
• privately, Nixon encouraged Thieu not to attend
• Thieu totally rejected the idea of a coalition containing Communists and so did Nixon  - sabotage of the PPT?

• Nixon changed position on Cold War, but was still a political opportunist
• when he advised Thieu against compromised at PPT, he had tried to ensure that it was not Johnson who won 'peace with honour' in Vietnam

• proved war was not going well
• America needed to withdraw as soon as possible, leaving SV to fight its own war

Sino Soviet Split*

• Cold War world changed
•  Sino-Soviet split shattered threat of monolithic Comm. bloc
•  Nixon decided US could play off the two rival Comm. giants by improving US relations with both sides and then press Hanoi to 'peace with honour' in Vietnam.

Peacemaker*

• being a world peacemaker appealed to Nixon - foreign policy success could help his re-elction
• improving relations with S.U + China would reinvigorate America and ensure his place in the history books.
• being seen as a world peacemaker would improve his chances of being re-elected in 1972 - purely self gain

Nixon + Kissinger and the Vietnam problem - The Nixon-Kissinger relationship*

• Kissinger became very influential over time
•  Kissinger always respected by media - Nixon wasn't
•  American foreign policy became moral-less in its emphasis on the survival and strength of US power

Nixon + Kissinger and the Vietnam problem - Vietnam: the problems and solutions*

• Vietnam = Nixon's greatest issue
•  sought peace settlement that would allow Thieu to remain in power in independent S.V - hoped to achieve through Vietnamisation and through pressure on S.U/China - Nixon tempt S.U with promises of arms agreements and trade, China with normalisation of diplomatic relations

• Kissinger believer in personal and secret diplomacy
•  distrusted bureaucrats
• treated his staff as mushrooms: kept in the dark, stepped on, and frequently covered in manure
•  felt foreign policy too complex 'for the ordinary guy' - Nixon felt the same
•  Nixon/Kissinger didn't always explain their policy - lost public support for policy - both thought in terms of American national interest little regard for moral considerations - Realpolitik

• tried, but failed, to attach himself to the Kennedy family
• until late 1968 Kissinger hated Nixon - considered him an anti-communist fanatic
• Kissinger's desire for power caused him to compromise
• "the secret of my success" "is to forget my old friends"
• "what interests me is what you can do with power"
• "power is the ultimate aphrodisiac"

• Kissinger + Nixon had exceptional knowledge of foreign affairs
• Rogers knew little about foreign policy/affairs but Nixon told Kissinger that this was an advantage as it would ensure White House control
• Nixon later wrote - "Rogers felt that Kissinger was Machiavellian, deceitful, egotistical, arrogant, and insulting. Kissinger felt that Rogers was vain, uninformed, unable to keep a secret, and hopelessly dominated by the State Department bureaucracy"

• "I'm not going to end up like LBJ...I'm going to stop that war. Fast!" - Nixon
• His aim was clear: peace.
• could not invade North Vietnam or destroy the PAVN
• straightforward American withdrawal? no.
• Honour required that Thieu remained in power
• hoped for a Korean-style settlement
• 1953 Eisenhower had obtained the Korean armistice through pressure on the USSR and China. Tempt the Soviets with promises of arms agreements and trade and the Chinese with a normalisation of diplomatic relations.
• another ploy = the Madman Theory - convince N.V he was insane and may use nukes at any time
• "the greatest honour history can bestow is the title of peacemaker" - he had to bring peace to America and to Vietnam

• Nixon attempted 3 solutions to 1969 military problem - bombing HCm trail in Cambodia 'madman' ploy and Vietnamisation
•  Feb 1969 - Comms. launched another attack on S.V
•  Rolling Thunder + 66-68 ground offensives clearly hadn't worked
•  March '69 tried secret aggressive bombing vs HCM trail in Cambodia - hoped to sever supply route to encourage Hanoi to accept peace agreement
• also hoped to destroy Vietnamese Communist Headquarters in Cambodia(COSVN)
• March - Nixon secretly ordered bombing of Cambodia sanctuaries - failed to destroy COSVN or slow trail, so April escalated bombing
• advocated blocking Haiphong and invading N.V - deliberately leaked to press to emphasises his Madman ploy

• Spring 1970 - Nixon announced withdrawal of 150,000 US troops from S.E Asia
• nevertheless Nixon appeared to be extending the war to Laos and Cambodia - escalating again?
• believed demonstrations of US power would counter Saigon's pessimism about US troops withdrawals, protect remaining Americans in Vietnam, intimidate Hanoi and gain better peace terms
• January 1970 - air offensive escalated to HCM trail in Laos and Cambodia, and N.V AA bases
• 12th february N.V launched huge offensive in Laos
• congress was considering cutting off Nixon's money - Nixon needed to get acceptable peace, quickly.
• 30,000 US and ARVN forces moved in to S.W Cambodia - encountered no resistance and didn't find COSVN
• pressure from US anti-war protesters now forces Nixon to make a speedy withdrawal from Cambodia
• offensive captured vast quantities of Comm. war material and made it nearly 2 years before Hanoi could launch another offensive - gave ARVN time to grow stronger
• unexpected result of Cambodian invasion was it forced Comms. further inland, where they destabilised Cambodian gov. and US bombing increased popularity of Cambodian Communists.

• April 1969 Nixon suggest Washington+Hanoi should have secret negotiations - Hanoi always favored as excluded Saigon
•  secret talks in May - Nixon offered new peace terms - instistent Thieu remain in power but dropped Johnson demand US troops would only withdraw 6 months after ARVN handover - offered simultaneous handover - N.V delegation unimpressed
• Nixon told Kissinger to tell N.V delegation that they must withdraw troops and accept result of S.V elections, else Nixon would do something dramatic - gave 1st November deadline - N.V said they had no troops in South, and that Thieu must be replaced with coalition gov.
•  making slow progress with Hanoi Nixon turned to Moscow - put pressure on SU Oct 1969 promised detente for help in ending war - linkage(concessions to S.U and China for their assistance in ending Vietnam war)

• Nixon made no real progress
• He wanted to be out of Vietnam before the presidential election November 1972, leaving pro-Moscow governments in South Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos
• also wanted Hanoi to release US POW's
• his only means of persuasion were 'Mad Bomber' performances and linkage

• Nixon used several tactics to keep homefront quiet - series of troop withdrawals from Vietnam(announcements timed to diffuse public opposition)
• september 1969 - anti-war activists + congressmen planning large protest - Nixon announced withdrawal 60,000 men
•  heart of opposition = male college students threatened with draft - adjusted draft so older students less likely to be picked - approval rating rose to 71%
•  Nixon very secretive with actions(i.e 1969 Cambodia bombing)
•  regularly used speeches to keep home front quiet - 3rd November 1969 delivered speech asking for time to end war - huge success approval shot up to 68% - "North Vietnam cannot defeat or humiliate the United States. Only Americans can do that."
• America's first defeat in its 190 year existence would be a national disgrace

• speeches, troop withdrawals, adjustements to the draft and secrecy were insufficient to halt the protests
• October 1969 - largest anti-war protest in US history. Millions protestors took to streets in every major city. Made Nixon drop the 1st November ultimatum to Hanoi
• 14-16th November, 250,000 peaceful protestors took over Washington
• news of The My Lai Massacre surfaced - many thought that if the price of war was making murderers out of American youths, then it was too high.

• when Sec State Bill Rogers heard about planned Cambodia invasion he said "this will make the students puke"
• April 1970 - Nixon told he dare not attend his daughter Julie's graduation, as students chanted "**** Julie!".
• 5 May 1970 - 4 students shot dead by National Guard at Kent State university
• student protests escalated
• Californian colleges shut down by state governor
• Nixon backed down and declared he would get US troops out of Cambodia by June 1970
• government policy was once again dictated in the streets.
• Cambodian intervention divided US: 50% approved Cambodian offensive, 39% dissaproved.
• escalation of the war solely by the president - aggravated relations between Nixon and Congress
• 1970-72 Senate supported bills to stop Nixon waging war in Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam
• Nixon could not get re-elected unless he removed US from Vietnam - he would not be able to save Thieu, honour, or peace if he just withdrew
• wanted a face saving formula that would enable US withdrawal and leave Thieu in power
• "I will not be the first President of the United States to lose a war"
• Vietnamisation and linkage with Russia and China took time, and that was exactly what Nixon lacked.

• 1971 Nixon's approval rating dropped to 31%
• Congress questioned Nixon about his undemocratic ally, Thieu
• a constitution for Saigon that had decreed a presidential election for October 1971. Thieu held it, but the only candidate was himself.

• January 1972 - Nixon's military + diplomatic pressure still unsuccessful
• bombing offensive angered many Americans
• US pilots shot down during air attacks - increasing number of POWs
• congressmen willing to abandon S.V in exchange for POWs - but Nixon used them as a reason to continue war

• S.U+China pressuring Hanoi to settle - Hanoi didn't want to face superbly equipped ARVN supplied by US
• March - PAVN began offensive against S.V
•  ARVN crumbled - Nixon vietnamisation discredited in presidential election year
• Nixon was furious with N.V - believed they used negotiations as a smokescreen for the offensive
• also angry with USSR for providing the tanks and artillery

• B-52s used first time since 1968
• PAVN still advanced
• Laird feared Soviet AA bases, congressional reaction and the loss of a planned summit with Soviets - Nixon went ahead anyway
• bombed oil depots around Hanoi and Haiphong
• Nixon divided Hanoi and Moscow by threatening to cancel the summit
• April 16th - US bombers hit 4 USSR merchant ships in Haiphong, but Soviets didn't respond as were keen to have the summit. linkage clearly working.
• Kissinger began to prioritise detente, and hinters to S.U that US may consider a coalition gov without N.V withdrawal

• second half 1972 Nixon running out of time + money
• Troop[ withdrawals meant Congress could no longer be shamed into granting funds to 'help our boys in the field'
• Pools showed 55% support for continued heavy bombing of N.V, 64% for mining Haiphong, 74% felt important S.V shouldn't fall to Communism
• Kissinger - "tell those sons of ******* that the President is a madman and you don't know ho to deal with him. Once re-elected i'll be a mad bomber"

• Seemed Hanoi would let Thieu stay in power while US would let PAVN stay in S.V and not insist upon a caesefire in Cambodia + Laos
• Hanoi insisted upon a voice in Saigon gov. - no chance of Thieu accepting that
• Kissinger rejected the idea of a coalition but offered Committee of National Reconciliation( one third S.V, one third Communist, one third neutral) to oversee the constitution and elections
• Kissinger thereby agreed Comms. were legitimate political force - thieu had always denied

• October - Kissinger had an agreement:
  • US would withdraw armed forces, continue to supply ARVN
  • National Council of Reconciliation with Communist representation
  • US POW's released
  • Thieu remain in power
  • PAVN remain in S.V
  • US help economic reconstruction of N.V as humanitarian gesture
• Nixon got cold feet and reject the terms for following reasons:
  • worried accusation that peace at this time was an electoral ploy
  • appear he had given in to people like Jane Fonda who travelled to Hanoi to shame her country's deeds
  • advisers feared if peace came before the election, people might vote Democrat as the Democrats were supposedly better at peace time governing
  • US right wing opposed the National Council
  • Thieu rejected the settlement and Nixon shared his doubts
  • Nixon not sure this constituted peace with honour
  • Thieu wanted PAVN out of S.V and loathed National Council
  • Thie had to make some concessions, was threatened with Withdrawl of US sopport

• November 1972 - Nixon re-elected, new Democrat COngress unwilling to carry on the war
• the only way forward was to force Thieu to accept the unacceptable
• Nixon gave Thieu his 'absolute assurance' that if Hanoi broke the peace, he would take 'swift and severe retaliatory action'
• Some of Kissinger's staff even suggests assassinating Thieu

• 18th December Nixon bombed and mined Haiphong again
• no public explanation
• caused worldwide uproar - hadn't Kissinger promised peace before 1972 election?
• 1000 died in Hanoi - 15 B-2's shot down with 93 US airmen
• Kissinger was cracking - leaked to US press he opposed Christmas bombing - a lie.
• was Nixon trying to reassure Thieu of US strength and support? - weaken Hanoi so it couldn't rapidly take S.V after peace declared? - disguise US retreats and compromises? - had he lost control?
• several congressmen and influential newspapers questioned Nixon's sanity and accused him of waging 'war by tantrum'