Risk, Global Trends and Patterns
Rising risks due to increasingly unfavourable risk equation H x V C
Increasing impacts of short-term climate change -> extreme weather = more hydro-meteorological hazards. Level of vulnerability is increasing, peoples capacity to cope is decreasing (especially in developing nations)
Global trends - the number of disasters = increasing, especially hydro-meteorological disasters. Number of people affected = increased. Deaths from disasters have levelled out, mainly because of improved management of major hazard events. Economic losses = increased!
Global patterns - distribution of geophysical hazards explained plate tectonics. Distribution of hydro-meteorological hazards is explained by the occurrence of particular meteorological and climatic conditions. Slides can be caused by weather events in mountain areas.
Where several different types of hazard occur in an area with vulnerable people, multiple disaster hotspots occur. California and Philippines illustrates this.
Long-term: caused by the Milankovitch cycles - evidence from ice cores. Medium-term: historical change caused by sunspot activity - evidence from proxy records. Short-term: caused by oscillations (El Nino/ La Nina) and global warming, rising of Greenhouse gases.
Arctic - experiencing ecological and environmental impacts as temperatures rise at twice the rate of the rest of the world.
Africa - shoes how the vulnerability of people can magnify the socioeconomic impacts.
Indirect impacts include rising sea levels. Climate change is an uncertain science as predicting the level of greenhouse gas emissions and their likely impact is complex.
Solutions = shorter term local adaptations and longer term mitigation. Solutions rely on a range of actions from key players operating at all scales from local to global.
Chronic hazards such as short-term climate change provide a huge challenge for the future and rely on the development of sustainable strategies for disaster management.