Factors affecting mortality rates
DEMOGRAPHIC: Population structure - 'Greying' or aging populations, e.g. Italy and Germany.
ECONOMIC: Widespread proverty and poor living conditions.
SOCIAL/CULTURAL: Lack of exercise or sedentary lifestyle. Smoking, drinking or drug use. Take inoculations where avaliable. Education makes people aware of health risks. Education of healthy living. Increased medical research.
POLITICAL: Policies to improve access to education and healthcare.
ENVIRONMENTAL: Too cold - hypothermia risk - e.g. Britain most winters. Too hot - Heat exhaustion e.g. France, August 2004. Natural hazards - tsunami/floods/tectonic hazards/extreme weather events. Danger of urban environments - crime/industrial/road accidents.
Factors affecting fertility rates - Demographic
High infant mortality rates
- Families often try to compensate for high infant child mortality by having a large number of children.
- This is in the hope that some of the children will survive and reach adulthood.
- In Africa (2000) a woman must have 10 children to have a 10% chance of survival.
High proportion of people living in the reproductive age range
- Girls often get married young, as they can start to reproduce from 12 years.
- A higher population means a higher rate of births leading to a population increase.
- Those surviving can reach the reproductive age range.
Factors affecting fertility rates - Economic
Children regarded as economic asset (producers)
- Viewed as producers rather than consumers.
- Parents will encourage them to contribute to the family income.
- Parents will encourage their children to have a large family as it could make for money for the family.
- The children can look after the elderly.
- They can be used for home/agricultural work for the family.
- E.g.Sub Saharan Africa, Asia and Latin America.
Children regarded as financial burden (consumers)
- It costs a lot of money to raise a child.
- E.g. approx $100,000 from birth to 18 years old.
Factors affecting fertility rates - Social/Cultura
- More women are more career driven - this means that children are born later, so as a women's fertility rate ends around 45 years, they will have less children.
- Low literacy rates and drop of fertility rates.
Security in old age
- Many families have many children in the hope that they will look after them at an old age, as they don't get pensions. E.g. in Africa.
Religion (use of contraception/age and type of marriage)
- Some religions e.g. Jewish people, do not approve of using contraception.
- This can lead to high fertility and birth rates.
Factors affecting fertility rates - Social/Cultura
Status in community
- To have a lot of children is regarded to have a high status in community.
- E.g. Fai Mankoh has 6 wives and 36 children!
Factors affecting fertility rates - Political
Inducements and concessions offered to large families (pro-natal policies)
- Government can encourage families to have children. E.g. France. This will increase the birth rates of that country.
- The one child policy. E.g. China.
- Enforcement of sterilization
- Encourage abortions.
- Post war 'baby boom'
- During war there was a low birth rate.
- Population pyramids are graphs that show the age structure of a population by age and gender.
- Normally males are of the left and females are on the right.
- Age categories are in 5 year increasing intervals labelled up the centre axis.
- The horizontal axis is measured in millions
- Expansive or expanding population pyramids have a triangular/pyramid shape. The wide base indicates a high birth rate and the narrow top indicates a narrow top indicates a high death rate.
- Stationary or stable population pyramids have a 1/2 ellipse shape. The base of this is similar in width to the population of reproductive ages which indicates a stable population.
- Contractive or contracting population pyramids have a narrower base than the reproductive age population. This indicates a decreasing population trend. The low birth rate is indicative of a well-developed country.
STAGE 1: High birth rate, rapid fall in each upward age group due to high death rates. Short life expectancy.
STAGE 2: Still as high birth rate. Fall in death rates as more living in middle age. Slightly longer life expectancy.
STAGE 3: Declining birth rate, declining death rate, more people living to an older age.
STAGE 4: Low birth rate, low death rate, higher dependency ratio, longer life expectancy.
The dependency ratio can be shown by calculations. It is the ratio between those in the non-economically active age group and those in the economically active age group.
Case study: Italy
- Life expectancy at birth is rising
- Life expectancy at 65 rising
- Fertility rising by 1.2%
Italy will face a much greater percentage of its population being inactive, reflected by over 45%+ increase in the total dependency ratio and an 85% rise in old age dependency rates between 2000 and 2030.
What do the italian government need to do?
- Rising retirement age
- Encouraging a higher birth rate
- Reducing less use of contraception
In 2003, Robert Maroni, offered 1000 Euros to every woman who had a second child. This was paid to 190,00 people and was extended to people who had a first child too. Rocco Falivena, gave 10,00 euros to increase the birth rate also.
The Demographic Transition Model
- Offers good description of general trends.
- Provides basis for comparison between countries
- Predictive for fertility rates
- Attempts to offer explanation of transition changes
- Has provided a starting point for more sophisticated models.
- Derived from a limited database - European countries only eurocentric view that all countries would pass through the same four stages. In reality many countries especially in Africa will never become industrilised.
- Does not predict total population numbers for a country, as migration is not included.
- Causes in decline of birth rates not wholly understood
- Impact of external influences from other countries not concerned.
- Does not predict when transitions will occur, length of stay.
Validity of the DTM: Europe and LEDC's
- Suggest fertility decline is even - European countries do vary.
- Suggests fertility decline is linked to increase in literacy urbanisation and decreases in mortality.
- Ignores birth control in stage 1.
- The transition in fertility and mortality occurs in a shorter time.
- Growth of population is greater in LEDC's
- Comparisons with MEDC's because of the above^ are difficult.
- DR's have fallen faster and for different reasons than Europe.
- Mass contraceptive availability.