Population - As geography

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Population Indicators

National population growth – An increase in the number of people that reside in a country.
   - [(BR + Immigration) – (DR + Emigration)].

National Increase – The difference between the number of births & deaths for every 100 people per year (%).

Birth Rate – Number of live births recorded, per 1000 persons, per year.

Fertility Rate – Number of children, born to a woman, during reproductive lifetime.

Death Rate – Number of recorded deaths, per 1000, per year.

Infant mortality Rate – Number of recorded deaths, in the 1st year of life, per 1000 liver births.

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Population Indicators 2

Population Structure –The breakdown of a countries population, into groups defined by sex & age.

Dependant population – How many young people (<16) & older people (>65) depend on people of working age (16-64).

Dependency Ratio – % of Working age  /  % of Dependants

Sustainable Development – Impact on planet = Total Population  Level of affluence  Technologies in use.

Population Density –Measurement of population per unit area.

Migration Rate – Difference of immigrants & emigrants, divided per 100 inhabitants.

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Kenya : Japan

BR - Number of live births per 1000 people, per year.
Japan [8] - Women have careers & marrying later, fewer children at a later age.
Economic burden of children, 'Cost', ↓ Infant mortality rate, no need for kids.
↑ Urbanisation - Smaller houses/flats = ↓ 'Child' space.
Kenya [34] - Social norm for large families. Only 1/3 of women use contraception.
↑ Infant mortality rate, lots of children (Only some will survive).

TFR - The average number of children born to a women during reproductive years.

Japan [1.35] - $3000 for every child (By Demographic party of Japan).
Kenya [4.5].

DR - The number of deaths per 1000 people, per year.
Japan [10] - Developed country (MEDC), good medical treatment.
Healthy Japanese diet.

Kenya [14] - LEDC, Youthful pop, few dying, nutrition advice, ↑ access to clean water.
AIDS - 13% 15-49 have it (↑DR).

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Kenya : Japan 2

Infant mortality rate - Number of deaths in the 1st year of birth per 1000 births per year.
Japan [1.3]- MEDC, good medical treatment. Vaccines to diseases when young is standard.
Kenya [4.5]- Rural families are far away from any medical treatment.
But, ↑ No. of babies vaccinated, still large whom are not.
Poverty is common, babies not receiving food & water to survive.

Life expectancy 
Japan [81]- By 2020, 2:1 Workers:Retiree. Working pop. will ↓ 1/3 from 2000 0- 2050.
Kenya [48].

Net migration rate - Immigrants - Emigrants per 1000 people.
Japan  [0] - Very tight immigration policies, need special permit (May be relaxed soon).
Kenya [-0.2].

Population Density - The number of people per Km².
Japan  [340].
Kenya [51].

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Kenya Case Study - [Youthful Population]

•Population - 44 million.

•TFR - 4.7. •Stage 2/3 of the DTM, High BR, DR↓, Life expectancy is longer [52 (men) & 61 (women)].

•A Nation Increase of 20%. •Youthful population - 43% < 15 [Implications for balance with population & reserves].

•Low population density [But most living in the SW & the SE Coast].

•Population - 30million in 2000  ‖ 39million 2009  ‖ 52million 2020  ‖ 66million 2030
→ Will still ↑ even if BR ↓due to population momentum - If the TFR falls by 1 to 3.7, the population will still ↑ to 66million in 2030.

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Kenya Case Study - [Youthful Population] Effects

Social
Brain drain - Likely to migrate as young adults.
↑ In Urbanisation → Development of slums on city outskirts [E.g. Kibera Slum, Nairobi]. - Rate of Urbanisation is 4.2%.
↑ Services & School demand → Shortage of places = Pupils Uneducated. 
↑ Population = ↑ Food grown to meet demand = Imports ↑.
Unemployment → Poverty.

Economic
Unemployment- Not enough jobs for many young; [↑ in Poverty - Unable to feed & clothe themselves and their family].
40% employment rate [75% of workforce is in Agriculture].
Overfishing of Lake Victoria = Lake pollution & ↓ Fish stocks.
But... ↑ Population = Jobs are filled → Economic development and growth.

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Kenya Case Study - [Youthful Population] Effects

Environmental
75% employed in agriculture [51% of GDP].
20% Arable land.
2/3 of land Insufficient for future generations.
 715 million without clean water & sanitation.
Malnourishment - 20% Underweight.

Political
Attempts to ↓ population growth.
FPAK - Family Planning Association of Kenya.
   - Aims to provide Contraception, Education on family planning & creation of family care centres in  every major city.

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UK Case Study - [Ageing Population]

Economic Positives

Grey Pound - Elderly count for 50% of consumer spending.
•Contribute £320bn to the economy.
•Over 50's have 75% of nation wealth.
•Jobs in the elderly sector→ Demand for services [Care homes].
•Demand for housing (Retirement villages), near city centre → Money spent in shops. •Many work part time.

Social Positives

Volunteers - Food banks, counselling, and charities. - Tradition British activities [Churches & Bowls].
•Cultural/Historic experiences - Theatres & Libraries.
•↓ Crime rate.
•Elderly a lot fitter today = Participate in economy & Society.
•Politics - Grey Vote [Help an active democracy] - Twice as likely to vote as <25 & twice as many.

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UK Case Study - [Ageing Population]

Economic & Social Negatives
Direct
Health care burden [NHS].
Meeting care needs.
Dependants & Pension payments.
Transport needs.

Indirect
Immigration of careers [Holding youth back].
Also hold youth back by diverting Government spending → Elderly.

Sources of Income for the Elderly
State Pension
Personal/Private Pension
Continued employment
Investments
Family support

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France Case Study - [ProNatalist Policy]

Why?
•High end of DTM [Need to stop Stage 4].

•Declining BR. - ↓ Fertility rate - 2.75 1960  ǁ 1.67 1992  ǁ 1.98 2007 (2nd highest in Europe). - Due to educated women pursuing careers.
By 2050 1/3 >60 → €12bn on Health care & Pensions for the elderly.
•Retirement age only 60-62.

What did the policy include
•‘Code de la famille’

•Maternity leave – Up to 3 years for mother & father.
•20-40 weeks maternity leave [Full pay].
•Free transport [Rail card ‘Carte FamileNumbreuse → 30% ↓ for 3rd child families.
•Grants for number of children [Take benefit - ↓ Tax for ↑ Children]. - £675 monthly wage for mother to stay off work after 3rd child.
Subsidised childcare, free for those on low income.

•Money spent on kids instead of elderly.
↓ Fertility + ↑ Life Expectancy = ↓ Labour + Ageing population + ↓ Population = ↑ Dependency ratio. 

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France Case Study - [ProNatalist Policy]

Was it Successful, or not?

•Population growth only 0.5%.
•Population 62million → 75 million 2050. - UN say only ↑ to 70 million 2050.
If stopped in the future → Full circle = another ageing population.
•Cost the government a lot – strain on the Treasury [£1064 for 3rd child].
•Could bankrupt the country if fails. - Economic impact, but strong political support [Unquestioned in poles]. - Too costly & Ineffective?

•Fertility rate still below replacement rate [2.1].
•Cheaper to cancel policy & look after elderly? - May have to cut programme [3% budget deficit].

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China Case Study - [1 Child policy]

•Fertility rate - 5.8 1970  ǁ 2.9 1978  ǁ 1.8 2008.

•20% of world’s population & only 7% of land.
•Early 70’s – Informal policy of encouraging delayed marriage, longer intervals & fewer kids - ‘Later longer fewer’.
•30 million died in 1960 famine.
•Set up to ↓ Socio economic problems & to support population with facilities [Education, food and health care].
•Need to balance population & resources - Not enough resources = ↑ poverty.
•Need to ↑ standard of living.
•Helped China move through Stage 3 quickly.

What did the policy include?

•Only 1 child allowed in urban areas [Now allowed 2 if both only child’s].
•Couples got priority housing, education, health care, and a 5% salary bonus.
•Granny police – Abortions really late [48 months].
•Exceptions for ethical minorities, those in rural areas or if the 1st is a girl/disabled.
Extra children = Large fines & implications [10,000 yuan & no rice rations for 2nd child].
•Exceptions for ethical minorities, those in rural areas or if the 1st is a girl/disabled.

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China Case Study - [1 Child policy]

Was it Successful, or not?
•Fertility rate ↓ to 1.8 in 2008 - Policy worked for intended purpose.
•Controlled potential population explosion. •Saved 400 million births & stopped a 2nd famine post 1960.
•↓ Epidemics, slums & overwhelming of social services. •Only child healthier & better educated.
•Population will peak in 20 years at 1.34 bn. - Population will only by 700 million by 2080.
•When only child’s grow up → Not enough workers & brides. Little emperors’ syndrome for only child.
•Gender imbalance → 110million men : 100million women [Selective abortions].
•Many orphanages/murder – Babies abandoned/aborted [Especially of girl – Family name].
•Dependency ratio set to ↑ to unsustainable level [Ageing population – ¼ >60 by 2030].
•4 : 2 : 1 problem – Elderly need care.
•Still face food security concerns, water shortages, unemployment & urbanisation.

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Poland & UK Case Study - [Impact on migration]

•Poland joined the EU in 2004.
•UK 1/3 countries not to restrict immigration from 10 new entrant countries.
•500,000 Poles have gone to the UK [3rd largest ethnic minority].

Why migrate?
•2005 polish unemployment 18.2% ǁ 2005 UK unemployment 5.1%. •Skill shortages in UK – Demand for semi/un skilled labour. •2006 Polish GDP $13,000 ǁ 2006 UK GDP £31,000.

Polish pyramid change
•↑ Elderly due to ↑ Life expectancy [ ↑ Health care ↑ Standard of living.
↑Nutrition.
•Poland reached Stage 5 on DTM [BR<DR]. -Communist rule (to 1980) → Gender equality, educated women etc., legal abortion. 
  - Economy during rule was failing = ↓Food [And so no more kids?]. 
•Smaller families [Due to women careers, contraception & cost of kids in MEDC’s]. 
•↓ young – Consequence of out migration of young adults (2000) = ↓ Adults in productive age groups.

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Poland & UK Case Study - [Impact on migration]

Positive consequences
•Polish jobs for those who’ve stayed.-But those leaving are consumer of goods & services = ↓ Demand [Unemployment remained high].

•↓Pressure on resources [Housing, Food, Education & Health].- House prices not raised too much [Affordable].
•Remittances – Reinvested in home country [Economy].
•Returning migrants bring back new skills & saving, revitalising economy  [1/2 return home] and ↑ Social expectations, improving facilities.
•Population density ↓.

Negative consequences
•Loss of young labour force & skills = Shortage & Brain drain → Slow economic growth [-VE multiplier effect].
•Imbalanced structure, elderly  ↑ & males .

•Social cost of returning migrants [Retiring].

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Poland & UK Case Study - [Impact on migration]

Impact of Polish migrants on UK

•Jobs in crop picking/food processing [Repetitive, long hours, least qualified] - On the contrary Polish doctors/ those with degrees.
•Low cost airlines – 9 Polish airports, 18 UK airports [Easy Jet].

Benefits to the UK

•£2.5 bn contributed annually to economy by Eastern European migrants.
 - Contributing 1% of economic growth in 2005&2006.
•80% of Working age [18-35]- Offsetting ageing pop.
•Stereotype – Hardworking, enthusiastic, skilled & flexible.
[Hidden costs – Translators, Xenophobia, Remittances, House prices].

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Indonesia case Study - [Transmigration]

Main goals;
To move millions from densely populated areas (Java & Bali), to less densely populated islands (Samatra), to achieve a more balanced population density.]

•To alleviate poverty by providing land & new opportunity for poor landless settlers to generate income. •To exploit more effectively the potential of outer islands.

•Java - ↑ Unemployment, ↑ air & water Pollution, ↑ Traffic congestion & Lots of Shanty towns. •Government gave transport to new sites, housing & farming plot and a living allowance for 1st 18 months.
•World bank donated $500 million to the scheme.
•500,000 moved 1979-1984. 250 new settlements set up.

•Expansion angered Environmental & Human rights groups
[Programme included fraud & environmental disaster].

•Islands moved to (Samatra) contained 10% of worlds rainforest. - Transmigration → Deforestation, "Rainforests ploughed up". 
"Tribal people pushed off their land." - people killed in clashes.

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Indonesia case Study - [Transmigration]

•Average settlement cost - $7000/family = ↑ National Debt.
•10% of new settlements failed due to infertile acid soils.
•Failed to achieve core goals
 - Redistributed poverty Poor access to markets Neglect of soil & water.

•Virtually no dent on Java population.
•Foreign investment trying to improve existing settlement of Java & Bali.
•1997 Financial Crisis of Indonesia changed the programme.

•Transmigration numbers ↓ as wasn't needed as much.
•Forced migration has stopped and no voluntary.
•Government now exploiting natural resources one existing islands.
•Money needed for new migration to other areas of low population.

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Comparing an Inner city area to a fringe Urban are

•Case Study - Skerton
Next to the River Lune and Ryelands Park, the A6 runs through Skerton.
•16 Schools within 1 mile.

•46 Bus stops within 1/2 a mile.
•<1% born in EU, 2% born outside EU. 96% White British.
•39% flats. 54% Terrace. Victorian terrace, council housing, or housing associations.

•18% full time students. <80% gaining 5GCSE's.
•<2% Higher professionals.
•29% claiming working age benefits. 16% Claiming incapacity benefits.

•Nearly 4x as much crime reported.
•Football fields, park & cycle track.

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Comparing an Inner city area to a fringe Urban are

Case Study - Standen park

•7 Schools within a mile.
•Under 1/2 as many bus stops within a mile.
•2% born in Eu, 4% born outside. 91% White British.
•Semi/dethatched housing - Gardens & Garage.
•33% full time Students.
•5% professional occupancy.
•6% Working age benefit, 3% Incapacity benefit.
•Young families. Williamsons park.
•1/4 of crime reported.
•University facilities, 2 grammar schools. 

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