Demographic Transition Model - AS

The demographic transition model shows how the population of the country changes over time through five stages. The model shows changes in birth rate, death rate and total population.

Stage 1 - high birth rate and high death rate.

Birth rate and death rates fluctuate at a high level - the population remains stable but low.  There aren't any countries in Stage 1, but some tribes in the rainforests of Brazil are in the this stage.

• Birth rate is high because there's no birth control or family planning, and education is poor.
• It's also high because there's high infant mortality, so people have more children to replace those who've died.
• Death rate is high and life expectancy is low becaused there's poor health care, sanitation and diet - leading to disease and starvation.

Birth rate - around 35/1000  Death rate - around 35/ 1000

Stage 2 - high birth rate, death rate falls.

Death rate falls, but birth rate remains high - the population increases rapidly.  Countries like Nepal and Afganistan are in Stage 2.

• Birth rate is still high as there's still little birth control or family planning and education is poor.
• Birth rate also stays high for labour reasons - family members (including children) all have to work, e.g. on farms.  A larger family can tend to a larger farm, helping to bring in more food and money.
• Death rate falls and life expectancy increases due to improved health care, sanitation and diet.

Birth rate - around 35/100  Death rate - falls to around 15/1000

• Birth rate decreases due to the increased use of birth control and family planning, and improvements in education.
• The birth rate also drops as the economy moves towards manufacturing - fewer children are needed to work on farms, so having a larger family isn't as advantageous as it once was.
• Birth rate falls further still as more women work rather than stay at home to have children.
• Some countries introduce government population policies to try to reduce the birth rate.

Birth rate - falls to around 13/1000  Death rate - falls to around 10/1000

Stage 4 - low birth rate and high death rate.

Birth rate and death rate fluctuate at a low level - the population remains stable but high.  Most developed countries are in Stage 4 (e.g. most of Europe and USA).  Birth rate stays low because increased access and demand for luxuries like holidays and material possessions means there's less money available for having children (their expensive to raise).  Also, there are fewer advantages to having children, e.g. they're not needed to work for the family.

Birth rate - falls to around 10/1000  Death rate - around 10/1000

Stage 5 - birth rate drops below death rate.

Birth rate begins to decline further while death rate remains stable - the population begins to decrease.  Some highly developed countries - e.g. Japan, are in Stage 5.

• The birth rate decreases because children are expensive to raise and many people have dependant elderly relatives, so lots of people choose not to have children.
• Death rate remains steady as there are more elderly people, so more people die of old age, despite advances in health care.

Birth rate < Death Rate