NIV Forecast Display

  • Created by: ellieedf
  • Created on: 19-03-20 15:38

National Demand Forecast

National Grid, Tesla and Meteo provide forecasts of the national demand forecast. This forecast includes 'normal' demand such as residential and industrial consumers. 

NDF - National Demand Forecast 

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Transmission System Demand Forecast

Published by national grid.

This includes station transformer demand (stable), pumped storage demand(PNd) and interconnector exports(PNd) . Because these are all PNd or stable it is easier to forecast this section of demand so that is why only national grid do it.

We add this number on to tesla's, meteo and our own demand forecasts to turn them into TSDFs.

TSDF - Transmission System Demand Forecast

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INDGEN - Indicated Generation

A forecast of generation on the system.

A sum of all the PNs submitted for BM units,  including interconnectors. 

Updated values are published every 30 mins, at 16 and 46 mins past the hour.

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Initial Transmission System Demand Out-turn.

The average MW value of demand for a settlement period. 

Because it includes transmission losses, station transformer load, pumped storage demand and interconnector demand it is directly comparable with TSDF. 

This is published every 30 mins, 5 mins after a half-hour finishes delivering.

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A forecast of imbalance in the system.

The forecast for each period is the difference between INDGEN and TSDF.

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Demand Error

The difference between TSDF and ITSDO is the demand error. 

We factor in the demand error by using the previous settlement period's demand error and carrying it forward when estimating the imbalance in the current settlement period.

The grey bars are the forecast NIV taking into account the demand error.

The blue bars ignores this demand error and provides a forecast based on current demand forecasts.

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Generation Error

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