Demographic transition model

Briefly outlines each stage of the DMT

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Stage 1

A period of high birth and death rate. Both of which fluctuate. Population growth is small.

Reasons for high birth rate include:

  • children are a future source of income
  • limited birth control / family planning
  • high infant mortality rate which encourages the birth of children

Reasons for high death rate include:

  • high incidence of disease
  • poor nutrition and famine
  • poor levels of hygiene
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Stage 2 - Early Expanding

Period of high birth rate but fallling death rate. Population begins to expand rapidly.

Reasons for falling death rate include:

  • Improved public health and medical care
  • better nutrition, veg + fruit availible.
  • improved medical provision; hospitals, nurses, antibiotics.
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Stage 3 - Late expanding

Period of falling birth rate and continued fall in death rate. Population growth slows down.

Reasons for falling birth rate include:

  • preferances for smaller families
  • compulsary schooling making the raising of children more expensive
  • lower infant mortality rate
  • changing socioeconomic conditions
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Stage 4 - Low fluctuating

Period of low birth and death rate both of which fluctuate.

  • Population growth is small
  • More women in the work force
  • Many people having high incomes
  • More leisure interests
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Stage 5 - Decline

A later period, death rate slightly exceeds birth rate. Causing population decline. This stage has only been recognised in recent years.

Reasons for low birth rate include :

  • Greater financial independance of women
  • A rise in the concept of children
  • Aging population ( baby boomers dying)
  • concern about the impact of an increased populatoin on the resources for future generations
  • Same sex relationships.
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