US Chapter 6 - TV debates

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  • TV debates
    • History and development
      • First debates
        • First one held in 1960, after that they weren't held for another 16 years
        • Town hall style of debate introduced in 1992 - candidates seated on bar stools, facing an audience of undecided voters who put questions directly to the candidates, has been used for 1 of 3 debates since 1992
        • Roundtable discussion style introduced in 2000, in which candidates talked to each other
          • Not used in 2016 and 2020
      • Three 90-minute debates between the two major parties' presidential candidates and one 90-minute debate between their VP candidates
      • The non-partisan Commission on Presidential Debates has sponsored all the debates since 1988
      • Third parties - only third-party candidate allowed: Ross Perot (1992) and his VP James Stockdale
    • How important are they?
      • Time when many Americans give the candidates their closest attention, and they give candidates one of their rare opportunities to talk unfiltered to the electorate
      • Examples of significant debates
        • 1980: Carter and Reagan
          • Increased support for Reagan after he cleverly posed a series of questions to which he knew the majority of voters would answer in the negative, support for Carter fell away after the debate - one week before the election
      • Examples of insignificant debates (in determining winner of election)
        • 2012: Obama and Romney
          • Temporarily turned polls in favour of Romney, who seemed animated, coherent and quite aggressive, whilst Obama seemed disengaged, bored and flat
            • however, Obama swept to comfortable victory on election day
          • Gallup poll - winner of one of the debates: Obama: 20%, Romney: 77%
        • 2016: Trump and Clinton
          • Clinton outperformed Trump in all three debates, but Clinton's poll numbers moved only marginally and she still lost the election
            • That a candidate could perform so poorly in the debates yet come out winner on Election Day massively questions the debates' importance
    • Debate rules of thumb
      • Style is often more important than substance
        • 2000: Gore appeared overly made-up, interrupted frequently, made audible signs, rolled his eyes: came across as rude and disrespectful
        • 2016: Trump widely panned for his abrasive tone, repeatedly interrupting
        • 2020: Biden 'will you just shut up man?'
      • Verbal gaffes can be costly
        • 1976: Ford mistakenly claimed Poland wasn't under control of the Soviet Union
        • 2016: Trump repeatedly refused to say that he'd respect the result whether he won or lost
      • Good sound bites are helpful
        • 1996: Clinton, when asked if Dole was too old: 'I don't think Senator Dole is too old to be president. It's the age of his ideas that I question.'
        • 2012: Obama accused Romney of favouring 'the foreign policy of the '80s, the social policy of the '50s and economic policy of the '20s'
      • Debates are potentially more difficult for incumbents than challengers
        • Incumbents have a record to defend and go into debates, usually, as the front-runner, so expectations are higher
          • Obama found this difficult in 2012
          • Reagan used this to his advantage in 1980
          • Much more opportunity to practice debates before hand

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