The Demographic transition model

Stages of the DTM with reasons for the changes in stages

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  • The Demographic Transition Model
    • Stage 1 (High fluctuating)
      • High birth rate and high death rate fluctuating
      • Small total population growth
      • Limited birth control/family planning
      • High infant mortality rate, encourages the birth of more children
      • Children are a future source of income
      • In many cultures, children are a sign of fertility
      • Some religions encourage large families
    • Stage 2 (Early expanding)
      • High Birth rate, falling death rate
      • Total population expanding rapidly
      • Improved public health
      • Better nutrition
      • Lower chld mortality
      • Improved medical provision
    • Stage 3 (Late expanding)
      • Falling birth rate, continuing fall in death rate
      • Total population growth slows down
      • Changing socioeconomic conditions
      • Greater access to education for women
      • Preferences for smaller families
    • Stage 4 (Low fluctuating)
      • Period of low birth rate and low death rate fluctuating
      • Total population growth is small and fertility continues to fall
      • Significant changes in personal lifestyles
      • More women in workforces with many people having high personal incomes
      • More leisure interests
    • Stage 5 (Decline)
      • Death rate slightly exceeds the birth rate
      • Total population decline
      • Only recognised in recent years and only in some western European countries
      • Rise in individualism
      • Concern about the impact of increased population numbers on the resources for future generations
      • Ageing population


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