Population change - The demographic transition model

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  • POPULATION CHANGE - The DemographicTransition Model
    • About the DTM
      • The DTM describes the relationship between birth rates and death rates
      • The DTM also describes how the relationship between BR's and DR's change over time
      • The DTM when first created was purely a descriptive model
      • The DTM model gradually began to be used as a predictive model
      • When used as a predictive model it suggested that all countries will go through similar demographic transitions or population cycles
      • Demographic = relating to the structure of populations
    • STAGE ONE: High Statutory
      • High death rates = disease, poor healthcare, famine, poor sanitation
      • High Birth rates = no birth control, children are an economic advantage
      • Example country: Remote tribes/groups
      • Natural change: stable or slow increase
    • STAGE TWO: Early Expanding
      • Declining death rates = improved medical care, improved sanitation, improved food production
      • High birth rates = still no birth control, little education and children still seen as economic advantage
      • Example country = Egypt, Kenya, India
    • STAGE THREE: Late Expanding
      • Slowly decreasing death rates = improved healthcare and education and sanitation
      • Rapidly decreasing birth rates = family planning contraceptive, lower infant mortality rates meaning not as much pressure to have lots of children, increased industrialisation meaning children are not an economic advantage and greater independence for women
      • Example country: Brazil
    • STAGE FOUR: Low stationary
      • Low death rates = good healthcare, pensions for older people
      • Still declining birth rate = as children are now seen as an economic disadvantage and high independence for women
      • Example country: USA, UK, France and Japan
    • STAGE FIVE: Declining
      • Low death rates and have leveled out = medical advancement at its peak
      • Still decreasing but low birth rates = as even greater female independence established
        • Example country: Germany
    • Problems with the DTM
      • Does not take into account migration
      • Does not take into account role of governments
      • It is based on the experience of industrialising countries so not relevant to non-industrialising countries
      • Some LEDC's will never progress past stage 2 since diseases such as HIV mean DR's will never fall


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