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The Demographic Transition

The demographic transition model shows how the population of a country changes over
time through five stages.

The model shows changes in birth rate, death rate and total population.

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Stage 1 ­ High Fluctuating
Birth rate and death rate fluctuate at a high level ­ the population remains stable but low.

No countries in stage 1, but some tribes in the rainforests of Brazil are in this stage.

High birth rate Limited birth control
High infant mortality rate

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Stage 4 ­ Low Fluctuating
Birth rate and death rate fluctuate at a low level- the population remains stable but not

Population growth is small and fertility continues to fall.

Most developed countries e.g. most of Europe and this USA are in this stage.

Birth rate decreases Increased access…

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The Validity and Limitations of the DTM
The demographic transition model has strengths and weaknesses.

It is particularly strong as a descriptive model but less strong as a predictive model.

It is universal in concept ­ it can be applied to all countries in the world
Easy to compare…


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