Negotiations part 2

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  • Negotiations (2)
    • risks of negotiating with terrorists (Byman 2006)
      • 1. Recognition arguably rewards the use of terrorism - other groups might take up terrorism or even inc their violence
      • 3. Negotiating may be more difficult post 9/11 - public might not accept
      • 4. Most talks end in failure - credibility of govt and members are on the line
      • 5. Progress may be slow - terrorist groups may not show signs of windling down its behaviour
      • 6.  ******** members may still remain - enough to continue the violence
      • 7. spoilers may emerge
      • 9. political process may transform the political scene and alter ops as it says terrorism works - may radicalise peaceful groups
      • 8. ceasefire may be used as a ruse - groups have used it to rearm in the past and regroup
      • 10. risk of talking to terrorist groups that are active against an ally - anger op govt - harm another state
      • 2. diminishing the stigma of being known as a terrorist group - US Foreign Terrorist Organisation was set up to shame
    • negations dont always yield a clear resolution or cessation it usually continues during talks (Cronin, 2009)
    • success of negotiations in history
      • Northern Ireland
        • 1972 - first attemptat secret talks
          • 1993 - Secret talks were revealed
            • 1994 - First cease fire and talks btw Sinn F & B govt
    • competingexplanations for peace in NI.
      • Stalemate (Zartmann,2003)
        • PIRA or UK could not defeat the other so peace was sought
        • Situation not so ripe in 1990s
      • Interplay (Tonge, Shirlowand McAuley, 2011
        • interplay f ideological, political, economic and structural as well as military factors
        • interviews with soldiers suggest the absence of the stale mate narrative
    • unsuccessful negotiations
      • more than classic terrorist campaign in Sri Lanka
        • Sri Lankan maj are Buddhist but Tamils were hindu
          • Tamils wanted devolution= not granted
            • Tamil Tigers formed 1972 - secular seperatist group
              • 70,000 deaths
              • greatest users of suicide attacks
          • unsuccessful negotiations cos splits in parties over talks, damaging support fir Tamils and causing problems in govt
  • 1998 - Good Friday agreement- devolved  assembly at Stormont and role for rep of Ireland
    • 1998-2005 - continuing talks until it ended its armed campaign and agreed to decommission
    • 1997 - New PIRA ceasefire and talks resume
      • 1996 - PIRA ends ceasefire and bombs canary wharf
        • 1994 - First cease fire and talks btw Sinn F & B govt

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