Empire Strikes Back

Nuclear Weapons
Nuclear Weapons
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What are the classical ideas of deterrent?
Based on Rational Actor Model, states manage interests strategically, overseeing a balance of power is crucial for peace
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What does Thomas Schelling (1966) believe military strategy now incorporate?
Art of coercion, intimidation and deterrence
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How does Sauer (2011) believe nuclear weapons should be used / not used?
Not weapons to be used, but to prevent enemy from attacking vital interests
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What is Existential Deterrence?
It is the existence of nukes that deters
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What is Extended Deterrence (NATO)?
Commitment to use nukes to defend allies
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What is Massive Retaliation (Eisenhower)?
All out retaliation, regardless of size of initial attack
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What is Flexible Response / Escalation Dominance (Kennedy)?
FR - Ability to act at various levels to deny enemy confidence to win, ED - Relies on nuclear superiority on every level to win outright
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What country is an example of Minimum Deterrence?
United Kingdom
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What was the 2018 Trident Juncture?
The largest nuclear training exercise
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What delegitimises the use of nuclear weapons with NATO?
Shift in political elites in western Europe towards denuclearisation, public concerns and pacifist movements
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What does Kenneth Waltz think should happen with nukes?
There should be more of them around the world
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What does the Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) principle mean for war?
War will become obsolete
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What has followed since the Cold War regarding warfare?
'Long Peace'
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What is Scott Sagan's argument against nuclear weapons?
'How do we explain when things go wrong'
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What is the argument against missile defences?
Those states might be more willing to use their nukes
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What problems have occurred post-cold war?
Rise of non-state actors, horizontal spread of nukes, deterrence seen as less viable
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Why is terrorism such an issue around the topic of nukes?
They go beyond the Rational Actor Model
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How does the Just War Theory link to nukes?
Nukes are justified in extreme circumstances (WW2), paradoxically saves lives
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What are some examples of arms control / reduction?
1970 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, 2010 START Treaty
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What are some threats surrounding nukes?
Nuclear horizontal proliferation, terrorism, failed or rogue states, missile defences, miscommunication / accidents
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When did North Korea join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty?
1985
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When did the International Atomic Energy Agency accuse North Korea of breaking the treaty?
1993
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When is North Korea called an 'axis of evil' along with over countries by George Bush?
2002
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When did North Korea leave the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty?
2003
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When did North Korea announce it has secretly been building nukes?
2005
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When did talks between the US and NK break down after years of sanctions?
2019
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When was the latest Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty introduced which replaced the 1991 treaty?
2010
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How many missiles does this limit each country to?
1,550
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When does the treaty expire?
2021 (Option to extend to 2026)
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Which country is China copying with regards to their nuclear program?
Soviet Union
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Humanitarian Intervention
Humanitarian Intervention
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What does Vincent define HI as?
Activity which interferes in domestic affairs of another state
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What does Holzgrefe define HI as?
The threat of force to prevent violation of human rights without the permission of the state
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What are the 2 problems with HI?
Norm to not intervene in International Society, HI the hardest test for an International society built on Sovereignty, non-intervention and non-use of force
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What does 2.4 of the UN charter say about HI?
All members shall refrain from use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state
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What does 2.7 of the UN charter say about HI?
Nothing contained in the charter shall authorise the UN to intervene in matters which are essentially within the domestic jurisdiction of any states
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What does 1.3 of the UN charter say about HI?
Promoting and encouraging respect for human rights and for fundamental freedoms
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What is a restrictionist view of HI?
Aside from self defence no exception to 2.4 of the UN charter
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What is a counter-restrictionist view of HI?
Protection of human rights HI is customary International law
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What year was Blair Doctrine of International Community?
1999
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What does sovereignty as a responsibility mean?
Failure to maintain leads to loss of sovereignty
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What are the 7 problems of HI?
No basis in international law, humanitarian reasons, life of soldiers, pursuit of national interests, selectivity, views of international society, mixed record
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When was the Bosnia genocide (An example of poor intervention)
1995
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What year did the UN fail to prevent the Rwanda genocide?
1994
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Who did the UN not protect in 2014?
Darfur
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During the cold war, Pakistan (1971), central African Republic (1979) and Cambodia (1978), were all intervened on the justification of what?
'Self Defence'
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What factors have led to an increase in HI post cold war?
End of superpower rivalry (No risk of escalation), increase in public pressure, expansion of security concerns, 1988-1993 20 new missions, an increase in budget
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What was the budget for peacekeepers in 1988?
$230 million
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What was the budget for peacekeepers in the 1990s?
$800m - $1.6 billion
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What country is an example of too much too soon HI?
Kosovo 1999 (Airstrikes and civilian casualties)
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What country is an example of too little too late HI?
Rwanda 1994 (Non-intervention and genocide)
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When was the Responsibility to Protect Report released?
2001
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In the report who is secondary responsibility for protecting human rights?
International Community
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Who was a recent example of HI in 2011?
Ivory Coast
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How many civilians were without food, water and electricity due to fighting?
4 million
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How many men did France authorise into Ivory Coast?
1,600
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When did Ivory Coast gain independence from France?
1960
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The Nature of War
The Nature of War
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Clausewitz says war is unchanging however what part of war is changing?
The character
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What is the nature of war?
What differentiates it from other social events
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What is the character of war?
How it manifests in the real world
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When is 'modern war' said to begin?
After the 30 year war (1618 - 1648)
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What is modern war defined by?
Centralised states, nationalism, rise in population, science and industrial revolutions, secular ideologies
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What are parts of a post-modern war?
Outsourcing, erosion of national identities, irregular and asymetric warfare, role of media
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Why do wars occur?
Proximate causes, underlying causes (Human nature, issues internal to the state, structure of the International system
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Why does the international system lead to war?
Anarchy, war a final arbiter of disputes, states act in self interest, international organisations, alliances
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Leashing the Dogs of War
Leashing the Dogs of War
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If war is described as a social phenomenom what is it constrained by?
Social forces
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What is St Thomas Aquinas justifications for war?
Must be for a good purpose, waged by a proper authority, peace the main motive for war
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What is Jus ad Bellum?
War as a last resort, fought by legitimate authority, redress a wrong, reasonable chance of success, aim to establish peace better than status quo
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What is Jus in Bello?
Between combatants and non-combatants, civilians never permissable targets, exceptions such as military target in civilian area BUT human shields? where to draw the line?
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What are some issues with Jus in Bello?
Escalation, grey area of joint civilian and military installations
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What is Jus Post Bellum?
Victor still has obligation after war, surrender terms proportionate, no revenge, all sides crimes investigated, rebuild?
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When was the International Committee of the Red Cross established?
1863
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When was the Geneva Convention on the treatment of the wounded?
1864
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When was the St Petersburg Declaration renouncing the use of explosive projectiles under 400 grams?
1868
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Why do Realists believe International Laws have little effect on state behaviour?
Assumption of states being self-interested and power-maximising
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Why do most believe this is true despite states maintaining laws most of the time?
Perception between international and domestic, focus on the breach of laws
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Why do states obey laws?
Law facilitates not prohibits, compliance through - coercion, self-interest, legitimacy, shared rules is how we achieve shared goals
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Clausewitz
Clausewitz
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During the French Revolution whats becomes the driving force of politics and war?
Ideology and nationalism
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What radical changes occurred before Napoleon?
'Nations in arms', conscription, creation of the 'corp' by Lazar Carnot (Self-contained mini-army)
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What are the 2 kinds of war according to Clausewitz?
1. Overthrow the enemy 2. Occupy or annex them for bargaining at peace negotiations
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What does Clausewitz think war is a continuation of?
Politics. By other means
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What 3 things leads to war becoming its absolute form?
Reciprocal action, collision and loss of control, resistance from the enemy
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When considering war as a 'rational calculus' Clausewitz claims war is controlled by its political objective. What must you do to this political objective?
Value it to determine the sacrifices to be made
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What are the 3 parts of the Trinity?
The people, commander and his army, government
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If war is a part of policy what will policy control in war?
Its character (How its manifests in the real world)
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As policy becomes more ambitious so will war. What form of war can this lead to?
Absolute
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What is friction?
What makes war on paper different from real war
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What does Clausewitz think of information and intelligence in war?
Sceptical to any information gathered by spies
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What does Clausewitz refer to as genius?
Psychological factors that are relevant in war, 'intellect' which permits the commander to see beyond the 'fog of war'
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What are the criticisms of Clausewitz?
Absolute war (WW2), impact of nukes, Clausewitzian war now obsolete, new and old wars debate (State-centric, absolute force, total mobilisation)
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What are the parts of the centre of gravity?
Strength and situation of the enemy, government and the people, political sympathies of other states
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What does Clausewitz describe the centre of gravity as?
The hub of all power and movement, on which all depends.. the point against which all our energies should be directed
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Sun Tzu
Sun Tzu
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What are the key principles of Sun Tzu?
Victory without fighting, avoid strength/attack weaknesses, deception, speed and preparation, prepare the battlefield, character-based leadership, harmony between fighters and the people
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What are the 5 kinds of spies?
Local spies, inward spies (officials of the enemy), converted spies, doomed spies (allow spies to report to the enemy for deception), surviving spies (bring back news from the enemy camp)
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What does Sun Tzu claim all warfare is based on?
Deception
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Why should war be short?
To avoid burdens on the state
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If you can't attack an enemies strategy what should you do?
Attack his alliances, or his army or (worst case) his cities
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Like Clausewitz what does Sun Tzu believe war needs to depend on?
The broader aims of politics
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Revolutionary Warfare
Revolutionary Warfare
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What new changes and threats have changed war?
Nukes, globalisation, liberal world order, internet, terrorism
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How does an insurgency differ from terrorism?
They differ in degree of support and scale of means
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What does conventional have as a focal point?
Military
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What does unconventional war focus on?
All levels of society
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When was T.E Lawrence and the Arab revolt?
1916-18
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What are the 3 tenets?
Algebra (physical environment), Biology (value of life), psychology (Legitimacy / support)
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When was Mao Zedong and the Chinese Revolution?
1945-50
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How did Mao Zedong differ from Lawrence?
Killing/capturing enemy a goal, guerillas would later become armies, terror tactics
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What was the main link of Mao Zedong to Clausewitz?
The emphasise of the relationship between war and politics
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When was Che Guevara and the Cuban Revolution?
1953-59
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How do you protect yourself from insurgency?
Location (Defeat them quickly / know the terrain), Isolation (Internal and external support must be denied / diffuse political message), Eradication (Target safe havens / ensure numbers / commitment over long periods of time)
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The War on Terror
The War on Terror
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When was the first war on terror?
1986 - airstrikes against Qaddafi's and Libya
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What occurred in 1993 to mark the start of the second war on terror?
Bombing of the world trade centre
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What year were US facilities bombed in Riyadh?
1995
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What year were US facilities bombed in Dhahran?
1996
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In what 2 countries were there US embassy bombings in 1998?
Kenya and Tanzania
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After the 1993 bombing what was terrorism classed as?
A crime
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What year was there a Bin Laden unit in the CIA?
1996
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What was Bush's approach to terrorism before 9/11?
Sceptical - Criticised Clinton / focused on great power politics
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What date did Ronald Rumsfeld order the Joint Chief of Staff to draw up military options after 9/11?
September 12th
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When was Bush's speech with 'Bullhorn remarks?'
14th September 2001
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What was within the Weinberger / Powell doctrine?
Overwhelming force defined political and military objective, assess necessity of force, reasonable assurance of public and congressional support
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What was within the Rumsfeld doctrine?
'Shock and awe' to replace overwhelming force, high tech, light military, network-centric warfare,
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What was the Joint chief of staffs plan for Afghan (13th - 15 September)?
Cruise missile attacks, longer bombing campaign, large scale invasion
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What was the CIA plan?
US airpower, Soldier of Fortune teams, Afghan local allies
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What was contained in the Bush Doctrine in 2002?
'Axis of evil', link between terrorism and rogue states pursuing WOMAD
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When did the level of violence begin to decrease under Obama?
2008
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What were the 3 points of the white paper for targeting with drones?
Target is deemed a threat to the US, capture is not feasible, operation is in accordance with laws of war
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Card 2

Front

What are the classical ideas of deterrent?

Back

Based on Rational Actor Model, states manage interests strategically, overseeing a balance of power is crucial for peace

Card 3

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What does Thomas Schelling (1966) believe military strategy now incorporate?

Back

Preview of the front of card 3

Card 4

Front

How does Sauer (2011) believe nuclear weapons should be used / not used?

Back

Preview of the front of card 4

Card 5

Front

What is Existential Deterrence?

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