Failure 2

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  • Failure 2
    • Problems with examining failure and interviews
      • Interviews are not the most robust data-gathering technique - qualitative research but are nevertheless, essential
        • difficult to contact fomer members of terrorist groups due to fear for their lives
        • could be trying to rationalise their actions, they could be scared and trying to rationalise their actions or just be dishonest
          • reliability  issues
            • how many interviews would you need to conduct and how big are the group sizes
      • Altier Et Al 2017 used 'semi structured interviews'and interviews
    • Colombia and Demobilisation
      • govt kept a database of 15000 transcripts
        • people exited voluntarily and are expected to discuss their activities while in the group and where, why and how they left
        • part of a programme to reintegrate former militants into Colombian society
        • can help us understand other groups.
      • Motivations for leaving Colombian groups
        • motivations (number)
          • Demoralised about the armed struggle (628)
          • Absence from family (768)
          • Pressure from military operations(2089)
          • Mistreatment (3993)
          • desire for change of life (5002)
    • AL-GAMA'AAL-ISLAMIYYA, EGYPT
      • Active during the 1990s
        • it was splitting between those who wanted to negotiate with the govt and those who didn't.
          • in 1997 it attacked Luxor killing 62 (mostly tourists) one child died and there was a beheading
            • Brutality caused disgust and the pop mobilised against terrorism
              • Wright 2006, says that five years before islamist groups had killed 1200 ppl after than the attacks stopped
    • what can states learn from all this
      • terrorist groups are difficult to keep together and can rarely afford many mistakes
      • can deal with them by highlighting their errors, operational errors may be the most effective way of damaging them
      • internal violence can be encouraged to pull a group apart.
      • not all groups rely on mass support but they need some S base to survive otherwise they're more violent
      • essential to understand how groups fail to find the best way ro nudge them toward failure
  • FARC (12,126)
    • Groups (number)
      • AUC (695)
      • ELN (2,203)
      • OTHER (284)
      • Motivations for leaving Colombian groups
        • motivations (number)
          • Demoralised about the armed struggle (628)
          • Absence from family (768)
          • Pressure from military operations(2089)
          • Mistreatment (3993)
          • desire for change of life (5002)
  • FAILURE IN HISTORY: RED ARMY FACTION GERMANY
    • emerged in the late 60s due to student un rest, frustration of Vietnam war and anger at US military and west German state
    • Failure 2
      • Problems with examining failure and interviews
        • Interviews are not the most robust data-gathering technique - qualitative research but are nevertheless, essential
          • difficult to contact fomer members of terrorist groups due to fear for their lives
          • could be trying to rationalise their actions, they could be scared and trying to rationalise their actions or just be dishonest
            • reliability  issues
              • how many interviews would you need to conduct and how big are the group sizes
        • Altier Et Al 2017 used 'semi structured interviews'and interviews
      • Colombia and Demobilisation
        • govt kept a database of 15000 transcripts
          • people exited voluntarily and are expected to discuss their activities while in the group and where, why and how they left
          • part of a programme to reintegrate former militants into Colombian society
          • can help us understand other groups.
      • AL-GAMA'AAL-ISLAMIYYA, EGYPT
        • Active during the 1990s
          • it was splitting between those who wanted to negotiate with the govt and those who didn't.
            • in 1997 it attacked Luxor killing 62 (mostly tourists) one child died and there was a beheading
              • Brutality caused disgust and the pop mobilised against terrorism
                • Wright 2006, says that five years before islamist groups had killed 1200 ppl after than the attacks stopped
      • what can states learn from all this
        • terrorist groups are difficult to keep together and can rarely afford many mistakes
        • can deal with them by highlighting their errors, operational errors may be the most effective way of damaging them
        • internal violence can be encouraged to pull a group apart.
        • not all groups rely on mass support but they need some S base to survive otherwise they're more violent
        • essential to understand how groups fail to find the best way ro nudge them toward failure
    • decline due to lower appeal and irrelevancewith the end of the cold war
      • generational transfer too
    • announced the dissolutionin 1998
  • 17 November(17N), Greece
    • group lost touch with reality never mind its constituency (Cronin 2009)
      • wrapped up by police in 2004 by this time it had no known support base, ideology was no longer popular and it had repulsed the populace.
    • WHY 17N MEMBERS GAVE UP (KASSIMERIS, 2011)
  • Ultra-leftist group resulting to polytechnic uprising in Athens 1973
    • active btw 1975 - mid 2000s as a reaction to the military junta that ruled Greece between 67-74
    • 17 November(17N), Greece
      • group lost touch with reality never mind its constituency (Cronin 2009)
        • wrapped up by police in 2004 by this time it had no known support base, ideology was no longer popular and it had repulsed the populace.
      • WHY 17N MEMBERS GAVE UP (KASSIMERIS, 2011)
  • He examined two former members to look for causes for disengagement, disassociation and repentance
    • Tselentis - left due to ideologicalreasons, tactical disagreements, moral considerations and doubts about the future of the struggle.
      • He marginalised himself over time by showing less interest
    • Kondylis was facinated by social upheaval and violence but ended up disassociating himself from the group and violence and urged others not to be violent

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