Negociations 1.

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  • Negotiations
    • Basic outline:
      • Many states claim not to work with terrorists, but clearly they end up doing so.
        • deemed repulsive and you need to show it doesn't pay.
        • clearly they do as 43% of groups end by politicisation so negations are happening somewhere.
      • strategic negociationis most common - goals
        • concessions - thing that is granted.
          • penitence  Law in Italy which allowed terrorists to be given shorter sentences in return for co-operation with the police
            • academics disagree over negotiation.some say should be a complete cessation of violence before doing so otherwise a voice is given to them but it is also a chance to engage with deeply held grievances.
    • Initiating negotiations (Byman, 2006)
      • Negotiationcan be hard to start as no one wants to be seen as soft.
        • can't work with the state if the they are arguing the state is the enemy
      • 1. public pronouncements - no commitment but can indicate a desire to negotiate
      • 2. megaphone diplomacy - granting of interviews or sending out media reports that indicate a goats desire to dicuss
      • 3. relying on trusted intermediaries - desecrate passing on of messages - NI
      • 4. intelligence officers - deniable and discrete
      • 5. Low profile talks - discussions kept quiet
      • 6. work through a political wing - govts can allow a group to form eg/ brits working with Sinn Fein
    • what factors might influence the success of negotiations (cronin)
      • stalemate - mutually hurting stale mate can't achieve anything more through violence.
      • strong leadership -  bringing moderates along and strong bipartisan support  for the govt
        • Sinn Fein managed to bring maj of PIRA along with it while both main brit parties were committed to peace
      • sponsors - mediators play a crucial role but they can also undermine talks
        • states have sponsored groups in ME making peace difficult. Scandinavian states have often played mediating roles
      • Sucide attacks Cronin
        • suicide campaign- cause polarisation in societies - MEPP & Tamil Tigers have high lvls of suicide bombings and v diff negocations
        • first evidence of it working was Lebanon 1983 - US left = works
        • splintering - can help isolate ******** but also splinter the mainstream -  negociatewith mderateseg/ IRA vs RIRA weren't happy with peace neg
        • Spolilers - remarkable success in spring peace - 1/4 treaties put into affect
        • setting and story - 9/11 would make it impssible
    • What scholars say on adv and disad
      • BAD
        • Dershowitz (2003) - states should not negociatewith terrorist groups
          • reward, it shows that terrorism works
        • Neuman, 2009 - warns that in desperation, terrorists might resort to WMD
          • GOOD
            • Toros, 2008, legitimisation of terrorist groups can shft a conflict away from violence
            • Neumann, 2009 - perhaps push for a permanent cessationof violence before engaging
        • Wilkinson, 2007 - democracies should admit nothing in negociations - so upper hand
          • GOOD
            • Toros, 2008, legitimisation of terrorist groups can shft a conflict away from violence
            • Neumann, 2009 - perhaps push for a permanent cessationof violence before engaging
      • Advantages of negotiating with terrorists (Byman, 2006)
        • 1. changing the groups real or supposed constituents - may become less supportive of violence - other means and legitimate outlet.
        • 2. Force  a group known for not engaging in politics to do so - progress or tarnish image.
        • 3. strengthen the more moderate elements in the movement - inc the chance of a peaceful outcome
        • 5. risks of not neg - may strengthen extremists and lower any chance of peace
        • 4. Intelligence purposes - use it to defeat them

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