First 375 words of the document:
Are they just a referendum on The President?
What are mid term elections?
These are the elections for the Senate and the House of Representatives
which fall half way in between the President's four year term.
EVIDENCE THAT THEY ARE A REFERENDUM:
· The President's party often leads Congressional seats in mid term
elections in all but three congressional elections held in the last 100
· Obama's losses in the 2010 mid terms to the Tea Party clearly
signified voters unhappiness with his policies.
· Since 1994, elections have become focused on the party as a whole
rather then individual candidate, this is because of the Contract with
America in 1994, the Republicans' manoeuvre to ensure re election by
promising to spend the 100 hours of the new Congress discussing
issues that mattered to the people. The Democrats had a similar
version of this in the 2006 midterms with the Six for '06 Campaign.
· In 2002, Bush's success in dealing with 9/11 lead to a gain in seats in
the midterms, they had gains in both Houses.
EVIDENCE THAT IS NOT:
· Losses by the President's party could be attributed to the absence of
coattails in the midterms ie, candidates are less likely to be voted in
because of the success of the President or Presidential candidate in
· The record of the congressional leaderhsip in the Houses may also be
a factor. The campaigns against Pelosi and Reid in 2010, led by
Republicans, resulted in Republican gains. Similarly, the House
Republican leadership in 1998 pursuing impeachment for Clinton led
to Democrat gains in the midterms.
· Finally, it may be the personal record of their Senator or
Representative that the electorate consider to be ineffective and thus
elect out for example, voters in 2008 voted out Senator Elizabeth Dole
of North Carolina, as they felt she had ineffective in their needs as
They are essentially midterms, as these are able to give a good mood of the
electorate towards how they feel to the President before the election in two