VOTER BEHAVIOUR
- Created by: hermione
- Created on: 17-12-16 19:38
View mindmap
- WHAT INFLUENCES VOTER BEHAVIOUR?
- CHARACTERISTICS OF CANDIDATE
- RACE
- basically all African-Americans vote Dem.
- Dem. pushed for Civil Rights Act '63/ Obama /Clinton v.popular
- 1980-2012: always over 83% pro Dem. / 2008:95% Dem. 2012:93% Dem.
- Dem. pushed for Civil Rights Act '63/ Obama /Clinton v.popular
- Bush popular among Hispanics
- 2004: 43% Rep. 2012: 27%
- basically all African-Americans vote Dem.
- GENDER
- more women vote democrat than republican - 2012 44% of women voted Rep.
- equal pay, gun law, defence, law and order, abortion etc Dem. tend to take positions on these that attract women
- 9/10 elections between 1964 and 2000 women were way more pro Dem. than men
- 2/3 of white men back Rep. and Dem. have steadily lost their support
- more women vote democrat than republican - 2012 44% of women voted Rep.
- PERSON-ALITY
- decisive
- Michael Dukakis - 1988 - indecisive on major issues/ John Kerry 'Flip Flopped' over Iraq War
- energy
- honesty
- decisive
- PARTISAN-SHIP
- party loyalty
- massive influence from parents
- most reliable determinant of voting behaviour
- cross over voter is a measure of partisanship - when a Dem. vote for Rep. vice versa
- small cross over = strong loyalties
- party loyalty
- CLASS
- more likely to vote for someone of a similar background
- Reps. tend to attract the more wealthy
- Dems. tend to attract the less well off
- more likely to vote for someone of a similar background
- RELIGION
- protestant and catholic generally - Rep. - pro life etc
- Jew: solidly Dem.
- AGE
- young pro Dem. 66% '08 / 60% '12
- past 2 elections - old - Rep.
- youth are only 19% of electorate
- RACE
- ISSUES / EVENTS
- voting behaviour can be determined by the events that have shaped the context within the election
- 9/11 and Iraq war shaped 2004 context - homeland security was a defining issue
- 2008 - wall street crash during election campaign - issue dominated campaign
- 2012 - hurricane Sandy was week before election - Obama went to see the affected area, Romney didn't.
- 2016 - black lives matter and especially ISIS threat!!
- in the case of an incumbent - performance evaluation
- Jimmy Carter associated with 'stagflation' and the economic 'days of malaise'
- Reagan benefitted from an upturn in the economy during 1st term in office - hard line foreign policy proved popular 1988
- it is hard to kick out an incumbent - especially in congressionalelections
- retrospective voting
- in 2012 Obama lost support across the board! change??!
- in 2008: 95% black in 2012: 93% / in 2008: 43% white in 2012: 39% (whites make up 72% of electorate)
- their opinions on controversial topics such as abortion or currently the threat of terrorists/blacklives matter/LGBTQcommunity
- voting behaviour can be determined by the events that have shaped the context within the election
- GEOGRAPHY
- As a senator Biden identified with Delaware
- Hilary hadn't spent much time in NY before they voted her into senate - associated more with Arkansas - woman? star power?
- north east = solid Dem.
- south = solid Rep.
- densely populated areas tend to vote Dem.
- sparsely populates areas tend to vote Rep.
- Suburbs are CRUCIAL!!
- for the last 10 pres elections - won the subs won the election
- CHARACTERISTICS OF CANDIDATE
Comments
No comments have yet been made