The Growth of Population in Early Modern Period III (Explaining Population Change)
- Created by: Alasdair
- Created on: 25-05-18 15:20
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- The Growth of Population in Early Modern Period III (Explaining Population Change)
- Traditionally historians explained population change by reference to change in births and death rates
- A fall in population was assumed to result from an increase in the death rate or fall in birth rate (or both)
- An increase in population was seen as the result of falling death rate or rising birth rate (or both)
- Reasons why death rates go up:
- Disease, especially epidemics and plague
- Harvest failure, typically caused by exceptional weather or pestilence
- War, especially major international wars, last a number of years
- Famine, often caused by any or all of the other reasons listed here
- An increase in death rate is often accompanied by a fall in the birth rate
- Fewer children survive to adulthood, to marry and have familes
- Famine and disease reduce fertility in women of child-bearing age
- Couples postpone marriage or having children when times are bad
- Major wars kill large numbers and disrupt society
- Most fundamentally, population growth may outrun available resources
- Farming may not develop fast enough to feed a growing population
- Towns may grow too large for available food supplies
- This is the 'Trap' which in 1790s Thomas Malthus predicted and considered inevitable
- A Malthusian Trap probably accounted for slackening of population growth in early C17th
- But in C18th first England and other western European countries broke through this constraint
- Why was this?
- But in C18th first England and other western European countries broke through this constraint
- A falling death rate after 1700?
- Fewer and less destructive wars
- End of plague in western Europe
- Better medical care available to more people
- Better living conditions for more people
- Increased food production and better distribution
- For similar reasons to why death rate fell, the birth rate rises after 1700
- Better nutrition increases fertility
- Better living conditions generally reduce maternal mortality in childbirth and infant mortality
- But is the real key to growth of population in England after 1700 a change in marriage rate?
- Wrigley and Schofield argued in 1981
- fall in 'female age at first marriage' explains much of this growth
- Most people have since agreed with them
- Wrigley and Schofield argued in 1981
- Why does age at marriage fall?
- Greater availability of housing in towns, compared with countryside
- Greater availability of jobs in industry, compared with farming
- General feeling of greater optimism in an industrialising economy
- Why is fall in age at marriage important?
- Couples are married for longer and likely to have more children
- If infant mortality also falls, more of those extra children will survive to adulthood
- If those children also marry younger, a multiplier effect sets in
- No one factor can explain population growth everywhere in every period
- But a drop in age of marriage appears to be main reason for growth of population in C18th England
- The old 'Punch and Judy' debate between death rate and birth rate is largely superseded
- Traditionally historians explained population change by reference to change in births and death rates
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