US Elections and Direct Democracy

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  • Created by: KDallers-
  • Created on: 30-05-18 20:00
What are the two main functions of the invisible primary?
Fundraising and media profiling
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Who proclaimed that 'money was the message' regarding the 2000 Republican primary campaign?
Elizabeth Dole
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Which formal events may aid candidates with regards to their media profile?
Republicans - Iowa Straw Poll; Democrats - Jefferson-Jackson Day Dinner
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Give an example of an invisible primary winner that did not win the Presidential nomination of their party
Howard Dean in 2004 lost the Democratic nomination to John Kerry
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What is a primary?
An intra-party state election which selects a candidate for an election proper
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Which reform promoted the use of primaries for 'greater transparency'?
1968 McGovern-Fraser Commission
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Name 4 types of primary.
Open, closed, modified, winner-takes-all, proportional
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What is a caucus?
A series of state meetings for activists that indicate their preferred candidate
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How have caucuses been described?
'Low turnout, high intensity' elections
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Which state holds the most important caucus?
Iowa
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What is a criticism of the way the primary calendar operates?
Frontloading - states attempting to bring their primaries and caucuses forward so that they can garner extra media attention
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What is 'Super Tuesday'?
The Tuesday on which many states hold their primaries/caucuses - can be crucial to winning the nomination
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How did the Democrats punish the states that 'front loaded' in 2008?
Democrats - discounted half of the primary votes of Florida and Michigan
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What are the most important primaries/caucuses?
Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary - come first in the calendar
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What are the pros of primaries?
- More democratic than the old system of 'party bosses' (30% turnout 2008), - 6 months long (preparation for Presidency), - weaker candidates are weeded out (Michelle Bachmann 2012)
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What are the cons of primaries?
- Too long (candidate and voter fatigue), - too expensive (Elizabeth Dole 2000), - divisive (Republicans in 1992)
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What are the pros of caucuses?
- Gives ideological candidates a chance (Ron Paul 2012), - gives outsiders national appeal (Clinton in 1992 and Carter in 1976)
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What are the cons of caucuses?
- Too long, - very unrepresentative (only 600 voters in the 2000 IA caucus), - allows extremist candidates to influence (inexperienced Trump 2016)
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What happened at conventions prior to 1968?
The Presidential nominee was selected by the party bosses - since the increased use of primaries in 1968, they have become 'a coronation' of the known nominee.
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What are 'super delegates'?
Also known as 'unpledged' delegates - party officials that are given a vote as delegates at the convention - decided the race for Obama in 2008 - established by the 1980 Hunt Cmn.
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What are the formal functions of the conventions?
1) Select the Presidential candidate, 2) Select the VP candidate, 3) Decide the party platform
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When were the last contested and brokered conventions?
Contested - 1976 Ford v Reagan; Brokered - 1952 Stevenson v Kefauver
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When has the President selected the VP candidate since?
Since 1956; before the convention since 1996 - 2008 McCain-Palin - 2 days before the election
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What does the President look for when selecting his VP candidate?
A BALANCED TICKET - filling the 'gaps' in the President's character - Obama (young, black, inexperienced) and Biden (old, white, experienced)
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Who didn't know the details of his party's platform?
Bob Dole with the Republican platform in 1996.
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What are the informal functions of the conventions?
- Promoting party unity, - firing up loyal members, - attracting media interest
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How can the primary candidates promote party unity?
Endorsing the candidate at the convention - Clinton suspending the roll call in 2008; BUT - Ron Paul refusing to endorse McCain in 2008
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How can a party fire up loyal members at the convention?
By attracting key speakers - Clint Eastwood at the 2008 Republican convention, Ted Kennedy for the Democrats
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What forms of media are the conventions seeking to spread their message through?
Through cable TV (FOX, CNN), and through opinion pollsters
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What is the key event of the convention, and what do candidates seek to achieve here?
The acceptance speech - candidates seek a 'bounce' in the polls as a result of this speech - Clinton got a 16% bounce in 1992, Obama 3% in 2008 after his speech at Mile High Stadium in Denver
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What are the candidates trying to do during the election campaign?
- Energising the core voter group, - win over undecided voters, - create 'momentum'
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What are the factors influencing the campaign?
- Strategy, - October Surprises, - Swing voters, - Incumbency (Washington experience)
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What is an effective strategy during a Presidential election campaign?
Focussing on swing states to win the Electoral College (Nixon visited all 50 states in 1960 and lost - Trump visited mainly swing states in 2016 and won)
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What is an October Surprise and what are some examples?
A revelation late in the campaign that leads to a shock in the polls - 1964, new Soviet Leader Brezhnev meant Johnson could target Goldwater, 2016 - Trump sex scandal, Clinton emails
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What are some key groups of swing voters?
The elderly in Florida, blue collar workers in Ohio and Hispanic voters - can be targeted - Obama, Operation Narwhal 2012
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How can campaigns be focussed?
Candidate centred (Trump v Clinton 2016), or issue centred (Vietnam and 1968; Bush and foreign policy 1992)
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How is media crucial to the result of a campaign?
Through TV ads which can attack candidates (Daisy Girl 1964), cable shows (Clinton playing a saxophone 1992), and the press which have influential opinion columns (NY Times, Washington Post and TIME)
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How can TV debates influence the result of a campaign?
Successful performance is crucial - 1960, JFK beats Nixon, 2000, Bush nodding at Gore in a 'town hall' style debate - also creating soundbites
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How has social media become increasingly important to the Presidential campaigns?
Following Trump 2016, social media has personalised the campaign and created '24/7 media'
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Why is fundraising extremely important in US elections?
To fund TV ads, travel, appeal to many different voter groups, fund staff and fund the 'permanent campaign' - 'money doesn't talk, it shouts'
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What is a PAC?
A 'Political Action Committee' - first in 1944 - they acted as an organisation between corporations and campaigns
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What was the first reform to campaign finance?
The 1971 Federal Election Campaign Act - this limited how much PACs could raise and donate and introduced federal funding for elections ($91.2m McCain 2008)
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When was the FEC set up and what does it do?
Set up post-Watergate in 1974 - designed to regulate campaign finance and act as an organisation that all campaign money must go through
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What is money that abides by these 1970s reforms called?
'Hard' money
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What did Buckley v Valeo state in 1976?
Declared parts of FECA 1971 unconstitutional - established that money = speech, and established that ads that only 'expressly advocated' defeat could be regulated
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What is 'advocation'?
Ads containing words on the 'Magic Word List' - if ads did not contain words on this list, they were not advocate ads.
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What did a 1979 amendment to FECA state?
That unlimited money could be spent on 'party building activities' - created a vague loophole
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What was the campaign finance situation like by the 1990s?
Out of hand - exploitation of 'issues ads' - $260m of all finance was soft money
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What did the 2002 Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (McCain-Feingold) state?
This banned soft money from being raised by private bodies, parties and candidates; also put hard money limits on PACs ($2.5k for candidates, $5k for PACs), and introduced a 'stand by your ad' clause.
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What are some loopholes in the BCRA 2002?
527 groups that could raise 'hard' money for 'general political activities' (attacked Kerry's war record 2004), and 501c4 groups that can raise money on campaign finance anonymously as 'social welfare groups'
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Which SCOTUS case struck down parts of McCain-Feingold?
Citizens United v FEC 2010 - ruled the restrictions on corporations and unions were unconstitutional.
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What were created as a result of Citizens United?
Super PACs
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What are some examples of Super PACs?
Trump - Future 45; Clinton - Priorities Action USA
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How much money did Super PACs raise in 2016?
They cannot donate directly to candidates, and have to disclose their donors, but donated $1.8bn in 2016
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What other cases highlight the need for further restrictions on campaign finance?
Speechnow.org v FEC - groups making 'independent expenditures' are unregulated; McCutcheon v FEC - individuals can donate unlimited amounts to campaigns over 2 years.
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What are the pros and cons of the lack of campaign finance regulations
Pros: - deregulation, - free speech; cons: - can buy success, - empowers the rich, - impossible to limit
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What is the Electoral College?
An indirect method in the Constitution used to select the POTUS - Americans elect electors, not the President directly
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Why did the Founding Fathers implement the EC?
A balance between states' rights and proportional representation
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How are EC votes calculated?
The number of congressional districts in a state = number of ECV - Representatives chosen proportionally, and Senators are chosen by states' rights - smallest is WY with 3, CA has 55
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How are electors selected?
Chosen by the party, as they pledge to vote for their candidate - they are selected at convention, or on a state level - cannot be congressmen or government employees
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How does the winner-takes-all system work?
If you win the popular vote in a state, you win all the electors - this can be disproportionate (winner of popular vote doesn't win the election - 2016)
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What are the pros of the Electoral College?
1) States' rights (CT Compromise, Senate element of EC), 2) Mandate for the winner (rarely deadlocked), 3) Two-horse race always encouraged, so winner often has popular vote, 4) Founding Fathers intention, 4) Ensures a singular executive
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What are the cons of the Electoral College?
1) Overrepresentation (165k voters per elector WY, 617k voters per elector CA), 2) Winner-takes-all causes wasted votes, 3) Excludes 3rd parties (Perot 1992), 4) Deadlock scenario is outdated, 5) Swing states (more influence than others states)
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What are faithless electors?
Electors which abuse the lack of a law in some states binding electors to vote for the winner in that state - Robert Santicum Jr. voting for Faith Spotted Eagle over Clinton in WA 2016
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What are the requirements to be elected to the House of Representatives?
- 25 y/o, - US citizen for 7 years, - LOCALITY RULE or at least resident of your state
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What are the requirements to be elected to the US Senate?
- 30 y/o, - US citizen for 9 years, - resident of your state
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When are Congressional elections held?
Every 2 years - whole House elected, 1/3 of the Senate elected - falls on same day as Presidential election every 4 years
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Since when has the Senate been direct elected?
Since the 17th Amendment of 1913?
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How are candidates for Congress selected?
Through primaries from May to September
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What is gerrymandering?
When House boundaries are reapportioned in a partisan manner by state legislatures - IL-4
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What is the coattails effect?
When a popular political leader attracts voters to a party in Congressional elections - 2008, Obama meant Ds gained 21 House seats
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What is the reverse coattails effect?
When an unpopular political leader detracts voters from his party in Congressional elections - Trump with Rick Saccone in 2018 PA special election
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What is split ticket voting?
When a voter votes for one party in a Presidential election, and another party in Congressional elections - WV votes Republican in Presidential elections, but elects a Democratic Senator - also 'Reagan Democrats'
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How strong is incumbency in congressional elections?
Very - only 70 incumbent defeats in primaries in 30 years of elections - 2 every year - for example Joe Lieberman in CT over Iraq 2006, Albert Wynn in MD 2008
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Why are there fewer competitive races in the House?
Due to gerrymandering and majority-minority districts
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Why is an incumbent's record relevant to success in a Congressional race?
They can defend their record in Congress
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What other factors are there in Congressional elections?
- Pork-barrelling, - mid-term volatility (losing 2 Senate seats and 23 House seats on average for President's party in mid-terms)
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When and where did direct democracy in the USA begin?
In South Dakota, 1878 - has been a tradition since on a state level, in 3 types
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How do referenda work in the USA?
Referendums are held on state legislature proposals by asking a question to voters - they are top-down devices; either a legislative referendum (on a legislative change), or a popular referendum (gathering signatures to force a referendum)
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How many states have referenda in the US?
24 states - 49 (all but Delaware) have referendums for state constitutional amendments - there were 115 referendums in 2012
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What is an initiative and how many states have initiatives in the US?
This is a 'bottom-up' device allowing citizens to propose a change by getting a petition with 5-15% of the populations signatures - the result is binding on a legislature
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How do initiatives work?
Since SD 1898 - petition signed and then either DIRECT (question goes on ballot), or INDIRECT (legislative approval, then on ballot) - examples - Proposition 13 CA 1978 - reducing property taxes, Proposition 8 CA 2008 banned gay marriage
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How do recalls work?
Allow voters to recall an elected official due to incompetence or corruption - a form of direct impeachment - in 18 states
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What examples of recalls exist?
2003 - Gray Davis recalled in CA, replaced by Arnold Schwarzenegger, 2012 - WI Gov. Scott Walker became first to survive a recall election - this provides accountability, but can be politically motivated.
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What are the pros of direct democracy?
1) Pure democracy (peoples' will), 2) Voters get what they want, 3) Encourages participation, 4) Educates voters on issues, 5) Recalls provide accountability
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What are the cons of direct democracy?
1) Burkean view of representative democracy is undermined, 2) Promotes voters short-term interests, 3) Have low turnouts (unrepresentative), 4) Dominated by interest groups (Mormons on Proposition 8), 5) Unfair due to resources for debates on issues
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Other cards in this set

Card 2

Front

Who proclaimed that 'money was the message' regarding the 2000 Republican primary campaign?

Back

Elizabeth Dole

Card 3

Front

Which formal events may aid candidates with regards to their media profile?

Back

Preview of the front of card 3

Card 4

Front

Give an example of an invisible primary winner that did not win the Presidential nomination of their party

Back

Preview of the front of card 4

Card 5

Front

What is a primary?

Back

Preview of the front of card 5
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