"There is no sensible alternative to nuclear power if we are to sustain civilisation" (50 marks)

7. Dr James Lovelock has written in the context of the need to address climate change at the same time as increasing energy production globally: “There is no sensible alternative to nuclear power if we are to sustain civilization.” To what extent do you agree with this statement and why? (50 marks)

• Need to address climate change has been accepted for many years- Energy Trilemma
•  better understanding of science- dangerous for human society- business as usual model= 4.5oC increase by 2100 (Sterman et al, 2015). seen big effects from 1oC since industrial revolution. To prevent dangerous levels of warming >2oC- 80% coal; 1/3 oil and 1/2 proven gas reserves not exploited (McGlade and Ekins, 2015).
• Need to transition to low carbon- this is difficult. Global energy mix= v. similar to that of the 1970's -80% fossil fuels. Reasons for this-fossil fuels= energy dense, cheap and technology and infrastructure=well developed. 
• May be easier for countries with stable demand to plan transitions
• However for many countries developing- huge demand increase due to industrialisation and increasing public affluence leading to greater consumption e.g. China- GDP trending at 9% increase per year. In 2014- 140/100 urban homes had a colour TV- more than one per household. 
• Energy demand is going to continue to increase- rural populations still behind in terms of consumption. 1.2 billion people (16%) world's population have no access to electricity (World Energy Outlook, 2016). Want better quality of life. Global population continuing to grow- 9 bn in 2050.Need alternative to fossil fuels that can meet demand

• From this perspective- Nuclear may be a sensible alternative.
• Reserves of U-238 in Australia, USA, Canada- politically stable countries- improves energy security.
• Reliable- power stations can run 24/7/365. Low carbon- no atmospheric pollutants produced 
• But V.energy dense- fission has the potential to release 1 million times more energy than from a chemical reaction (ITER).  Example: Hinkley point C, UK- should provide 7% UK electricity demand. 
• Help UK to fulfil it's obligation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80% on 1990 levels by 2050.
• Other hand-contraversial-many …