Edexcel: Topic 5, Predicting future climates

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Enhanced global warming due to rising carbon dioxide levels is only one of several factors likely to affect future climates.  Scientists use mathematical models to assess how many of the factors mat affect the future climate.

Making mathematical models


for data of atmospheric carbon dioxide we can ignore annual fluctuation as it will be down to the seasons and create a best fit line.  A best fit like can be extended, this is called extrapolation.  By extending the line we assume that we have enough data to establish the trend accurately and the present trend continues.  To extrapolate a curve you have to identify  its shape.  Computers can extrapolate more exactly than humans can.  An extrapolation is often the basis for a prediction.  However these predictions may not be entirely accurate as steps may be taken to alter the future due to the prediction.  For example if the trend on CO2 was rising dramatically people may try to reduce the future increase


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