Why Did the National Party Decide to Begin Negotiations in the years 1985-89?

Botha's reforms and 'total strategy'

'Total Strategy' aimed to use reform in order to stop criticism and unrest
1985 = Mid of the townships revolt + Western Pressure to phase out apartheid
1985 = Botha gave a keynote speech - meant to expand the reform programme but actually articulated a more cautious stance
In some ways, he did continue with reform
1986 - gov had softened the implementation of many apartheid laws - pass laws were basically abandoned
Gov invested into upgrading some of the townships
Went to generals and security forces (lead by Magnus Malan) to restore order and regain momentum
He often bypassed the tricameral government
Created State Security Council - combined cabinet members and senior military officers
Some opposition press saw this as coming close to a military takeover
Both insisted on imposing control before more reforms could be made
He also made it clear that the reforms were not a step towards democracy
In states of emergency that followed, tens of thousands were arrested
Botha became intolerant of his own Party and political opposition and tricameral parliament.

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By 1984, Botha had managed to stop ANC support from surrounding African Countries
Nambia = under SA direct rule
Lesotho - PM = Leabua Jonathan (1965-86) supported SA at first, then became gradually more independent and eventually supported the ANC openly.
Military in the 80's = used in townships but largely used beyond the borders of SA in pursuit of total strategy
SA was engaged in civil war between Angola and Mozambique
Army staged direct raids on ANC houses and bases in Mozambique
South Africa made life in the region of southern Africa very difficult for its enemies through direct intervention and indirect destabilisation

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1985 - America refused to renew South African loans
The currency slumped in 1985 after investors lost faith in Botha
Even Regan + conservative US government started to support disinvestment
The movement to free Nelson Mandella from prison was gathering steam
It was backed by the AAM and the ANC in exile
Mandela's popularity became obvious in 1988 when there was an event to celebrate his birthday held at Wembley stadium in London

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By the late 1980's, the central South African State could no longer fully control political developments in the homelands and townships
But the ANC, UDF or the youth had the power to threaten white military dominance
Even though the state broadcasting service was controlled by the government, it was hard to totally hide what was going on: political protest
Elements within the gov itself admitted from the mid-80's that reform strategy was likely to be inefficient --> Began to explore the possibility of a negotiated settlement (strongly encouraged by Western Power -- US, UK and Germany)

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70's/80's --> Nelson Mandela had been elevated by the AAM
The gov also realised his standing and his authority over prisoners at Robben Island
1982 - Mandela and Sisulu and 3 others were transferred to Pollsmoor (large general prison in Cape Town)
Plan: give them better conditions and to divide the political prisoners
Mandela was more exposed to news and information and allowed more visitors (1985 this inc British and US emissaries)
January 1985 - Botha offered to release Mandela and other political prisoners IF they agreed to stop violence and the armed struggle and support for political movements that were still committed to violence
Mandela refused - broadcast in a speech read out by his daughter at a UDF rally
Mandela wrote to Coetsee to discuss the possibility of negotiations
1985, was separated from other prisoners and given own flat.
Botha undermined any possibility of negotiations by attacking ANC bases in Botswana, Zimbabwe and Zambia - wanted to show the gov was still in control
After this attack, however, Mandela was taken out for a 3-hour meeting with Coetsee
Botha authorised talks with the ANC in exile.

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From here, pace and density of the talks quicked
Mandela (still imprisoned) met with a committee of 4 gov members almost weekly
He said he spent most of the time explaining the history and values of the ANC
Issues for the gov:
1) ANC's commitment to armed struggle
2) ANC's links with the CP
Botha was concerned with what to tell his supporters (e.g. nationalisation of industries, and protection for the rights of minorities)
ANC wanted SA to go forward as a unitary state with a democratically elected government.
NP didn't think this would give enough protection to White minority
NP now lead by de Klerk --> Less concerned with reform and more about damage being done by the conservative breakaway
Throughout the 80's the gov sent mixed messages; banning the UDF and maintaining repression

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By the late 80's, the UDF were finding it very hard to operate
In 1985, trade unionists formed a new national organisation - Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) --> Became the most organised and sustained opposition movement
Within this = Union of Mineworkers (organised major strikes in 1987)
Was affiliated with UDF and sympathetic of the ANC but independent organisation
1989 - the alliance between UDF and COSATU = Mass Democratic Movement (MDM)
August 1989 - COSATU staged a new Defiance Campaign to try can kill off segregated facilities and free political prisoners

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