Sociology - Demography

What is demography?

Demography is the study of populations and their characteristics. These characteristics include:

• Birth rates - the number of live births per thousand of the population per year.
• Total fertility rate (TFR) - the average number of children, women will have during their fertile year.
• Infant mortality rate (IMR) - the number of infants who die before their first birthday, per thousand live births per year.
• Death rate - the number of deaths per thousand of the population per year.
• Life expectancy - how long on average people who are born in a given year can expect to live.
• Immigration - how many people enter the country from elsewhere.
• Emigration - how many people leave the country to live elsewhere.
• Net immigration - the difference between the number of immigrants entering the country and the number of emigrants leaving it.

There has been a long-term decline in the number of births since 1900. In that year, England and Wales had a birth rate of 28.7, but by 2014 it had fallen to an estimated 12.3. 

Factors that Determine Birth Rates: TFR has risen in recent years but is still lower than in the past. From an all-time low of 1.63 per woman in 2001, it rose to 1.83 by 2014. This is still lower than 2.95 children per woman in 1964 during the 1960's baby boom.

Changes in fertility and birth rates reflect the fact that:

• More women are remaining childless than in the past.
• Women are postponing having children: the average age for giving births is now 30, and fertility rates for women in their 30s and 40s are increasing. Older women may be less fertile and have fewer fertile years remaining, therefore they produce fewer children.

1) Changes in the Position of Women: There were major changes in the 20th century including:

• Legal equality with men, including the right to vote.
• Increased educational opportunities - girls now do better at school than boys.
• More women in paid employment, plus laws outlawing unequal pay and sex discrimination.
• Changes in attitudes to family life and women's role.
• Easier access to divorce.
• Access to abortion and reliable contraception, giving women more control over their fertility.

Harper (2012) argues that the education of women is the most important reason for the long-term fall in birth and fertility rates. This is because it has led to a change in mind-set among women, resulting in fewer children. Educated women are also more likely to use family planning and see other possibilities in life besides the traditional role of housewife and mother. Many choose to delay childbearing or have no children at all to pursue a career (in 2012, 1 in 5 women aged 45 was childless). She notes that once a pattern of low fertility lasts for more than one generation, cultural norms about family size change.

2) Child Centredness: The increasing child-centredness both of the family and society as a whole means that childhood is now socially constructed as a uniquely important period in the individual's life. In terms of family size, this has encouraged a shift from 'quantity' to 'quality' - parents now have fewer children and lavish more attention and resources on these few.

3) Children are now an Economic Liability: Until the late 19th century, children were economic assets to their parents because they could be sent out to work from an early age to earn an income. Since the late 19th century, children have gradually become an economic liability through:

• Laws - banning child labour, introducing compulsory schooling and raising the school leave age meant that children remain economically dependent on their parents for longer.
• Changing norms about what children have a right to expect from their parents in material meant that the cost of bringing up children has risen.

As a result of these financial pressures, parents feel less able or willing than in the past to have a large family.

4) Decline in Infant Mortality Rate (IMR): Harper argues that a fall in IMR leads to a fall in birth rates. This is because, if many infants die, parents have more children to replace those lost which causes an increase in birth rates, In 1900, IMR for the UK was 154 (over 15% of babies died within their first year). These figures are higher than those of less developed countries.

During the 20th century, the UK's IMR began to fall due to:

• Improved housing and better sanitation such as clean drinking water, which reduced infectious disease, Infants are much more susceptible to infection because of their less developed immune system.
• Better nutrition, including that of mothers.
• Better knowledge of hygiene, child health and welfare, often spread via women's magazines.
• Improved services for mothers and children, such as antenatal and postnatal clinics.

In the 1950's medical factors played a greater role such as mass immunisation against childhood diseases and antibiotics fought infection and improved midwifery and obstetric techniques. This caused the IMR to fall to 30 in the 1950's and by 2012 it was 4. Brass & Kabir (1978) argue that the trend to smaller families began in urban areas, where IMR remained higher for longer.

Future Trends in Birth Rates: One reason for the increase since 2001 is due to immigration. On average, mothers from outside of the UK have a higher fertility rate than those born in the UK. Babies born to mother outside of the UK accounted for 25% of all births in 2011. However, the projection for the period up to 2041 expects the annual number of births to be fairly constant, at around 800,000 per year.

Changes in the number of babies born affect several aspects of society.

The Family: Smaller families mean that women are more likely to be free to go out to work, creating the dual-earner couple typical of many professional families. However, family size is only one factor. For example, better off couples may be able to have larger families and still afford childcare that allows them both to work full-time.

The Dependency Ratio: This is the relationship between the size of the working or productive part of the population, and the size of the non-working or dependent part of the population. Earnings, savings and taxes of the working population must support the dependent population. Children make up a large part of the dependent population, so a fall in the number of children reduces the 'burden of dependency' on the working population. However, in the longer term, fewer babies being born will mean fewer young adults and a smaller working population, so the burden of dependency may begin to increase again.

Vanishing children - falling fertility rates mean fewer children. As a result, childhood may become a lonelier experience as fewer children will have fewer siblings and more childless adults mean fewer voices speaking up in support of children's interest. Conversely, fewer children could mean they will come to be more valued.

Public Services and Policies: A lower birth rate has consequences for public services. For example, fewer schools and maternity and child health services may be needed. It also affects the cost of maternity and paternity leave and the types of housing needed to be built. However, we should remember that many of these are political decisions. For example, instead of reducing the number of schools, the government could decide to have smaller class size.

An ageing population - an effect would be that the average age of the population is rising - more old people relative to young people.

The death rate is the number of deaths per thousand of the population per year. In 1900, the death rate stood at 19, whereas by 2012, it had more than halved to 8.9.

The death rate had already begun falling from about 1870 and continued to do so until 1930. It rose slightly during the 1930s and 1940s - the period of the great economic depression, but since the 1950's it has declined slightly.

Improved Nutrition: Mckeowm (1972)argues that improved nutrition accounted up to half the reduction in death rates and was particularly important in reducing the number of deaths from TB. Better nutrition increased resistance to infection and increased the survival chance of those who did become infected.

However, McKeown does not explain why females, who received a smaller share of the family food supply, lived long than males.He also fails to explain why deaths from infectious diseases, such as measle, rose at a time of improving nutrition.

Medical Improvements: Before the 1950's, medical improvements played almost no part in the reduction of death rates from infectious diseases, However after the 1950's, medical knowledge improved as well as techniques and organisation, which helped to reduce death rates. Advances such as introducing antibiotics, immunisation and blood transfusion, improved maternity services, as well as the setting up of the NHS. Improved medication, by-pass surgery and other developments have reduced deaths from heart disease by one-third.

Smoking and Diet: Harper argues that the greatest fall in death rates is simply from a reduction in the number of people smoking. However, in the 21st century, obesity has replaced smoking as the new lifestyle epidemic. For example, in 2012, 1/4 of all UK adults were obese.

Although obesity has increased dramatically, deaths from obesity have been kept low as a result of drug therapies. Harper suggests we may be moving to an 'American' health culture where lifestyles are unhealthy but where long lifespan is achieved by the use of costly medication.

Public Health Measures: In the 20th century, more effective central/local government with the necessary power to pass/enforce laws led to a range of improvements in public health and the quality of the environment. These included improvements in houses (less crowded and produced drier better-ventilated accommodations), purer drinking water, laws to combat adulteration of food and drink, pasteurisation of milk and improved sewer disposal methods of milk. The Clean Air Acts reduced air pollution such as smog, which led to 4,000 deaths in five days in 1952.

Other Social Changes: 

• The decline of dangerous manual occupations such as mining.
• Smaller families reduced the rate of transmission of infection.
• Greater public knowledge on the causes of illness.
• Lifestyle changes, especially the reduction in the number of men who smoke.
• Higher income, allowing for a healthier lifestyle.

Life Expectancy: Refers to how long on average a person born in a given year can expect to live. As death rates have fallen, life expectancy has increased, for example:

• Males born in England in 1900 could expect on average to live until they were 50 (57 for females).
• Males born in England in 2013 can expect to live for 90.7 years (94 for females).

One reason for lower average life expectancy in 1900 was the fact that so many infants and children did not survive beyond the early years of life. We can note that a newborn baby today has a better chance of reaching its 65th birthday than a baby born in 1900 had of reaching its first birthday.

If the trend to greater longevity (lifespan) continues, Harper predicts we will soon achieve 'radical longevity', with many more centenarians (people aged over 100). There is currently about 10,000 in the UK; by 2100 there are projected to be one million.

Despite the overall reduction in death rates and increase in life expectancy over the last 100 years, there are still important class, gender and regional differences. For example, women generally live longer than men - although the gap has narrowed due to changes in employment and lifestyles.

Those living in the North and Scotland have a lower life expectancy than those in the South, while working-class men in unskilled or routine jobs are around three times as likely to die before 65 compared with men in managerial or professional jobs.

Walker (2011) argues that those living in the poorest areas of England die on average seven years earlier than those in the richest areas, while the average difference in disability-free life expectancy is 17 years.

The average age of the UK population is rising: 1971 was 34.1 years 2013 was 40,3, and by 2037 it is predicted to be 42,8 years. There are fewer young people and more old people. In 2014, the number aged 65 or over equalled the number of under-15's for the first time ever.

'Age pyramids' show how older age groups are growing as a proportion of the population, while younger groups are shrinking. Hirsch (2005) notes the traditional age 'pyramid' is disappearing and being replaced by more or less-equal sized blocks representing the different age groups. For example, by 2041 there will be as many 78 year olds as 5-year-olds.

The ageing of the population is caused by three factors:

• Increasing life expectancy - people are living longer into old age. 
• Declining infant mortality - so that nowadays hardly anyone dies early in life. 
• Declining fertility - fewer young people are being born in relation to the number of older people in the population.

Public Sevices: Older people consume a larger proportion of services such as health and social care than other age groups. This is true of the 'old old' (75+) as against to the 'young old (65-74). However, we should be aware of over-generalising since many people remain in relatively good health well into old age. Also, due to the increased expenditures on health care, an ageing population may mean changes to policies and provision of housing, transport and other services.

One-Person Pensioner Households: The number of pensioners living alone has increased and one-person pensioner households account for about 12.5% of all households. Most of these are female because women generally live longer than men and are usually younger than their husbands. Among the over-75's, there are twice as many women as men, described as the 'feminisation of later life'.

Ageism: Refers to the negative stereotyping and unequal treatment of people on the basis of their age. Ageism towards older people shows itself in many ways, such as discrimination in employment and unequal treatment in health care. Much of the discourse (way of speaking and thinking) about old age and ageing has been constructed as a problem, such as the cost of pensions or health care for the old. For example:

• The Griffiths Report (1988) on the care of the elderly saw society as facing the problem of meeting escalating costs of health and social care for the growing numbers of old people.

Townsend (1981) argues that one reason for negative attitudes to the elderly in our society is that old age has been socially constructed as a period of dependency by creating a statutory retirement age, at which most people are expected or required to stop working and are forced to rely on inadequate benefits that push many into poverty.

Modern Society and Old Age: Many sociologists argue that ageism is the result of 'structured dependency'. The old are largely excluded from paid work, leaving them economically dependent on their families or the state. In modern society, our identity and status are largely determined by our role in the production. Those excluded from production by compulsory retirement have a dependency status and a stigmatised identity.

From a Marxist perspective, Phillipson (1982) argues that the old are of no use to capitalism because they are no longer productive. As a result, the state is unwilling to support them adequately and so the family often has to take responsibility for their care.

In modern society, life is structured into a fixed series of stages, such as childhood, youth etc. Age becomes important in role allocation, creating fixed life stages and age-related identities, such as worker or pensioner. The old are therefore excluded from a role of the labour force and made dependent and powerless.

Postmodernist sociologists argue that in today's postmodern society, the fixed, orderly stages of the life course have broken down. For example, trends such as children dressing in adult styles, later marriage and early retirement all begin to blur boundaries between life stages. This gives individuals a greater choice of lifestyle, whatever their age.

Unlike in modern society, consumption becomes the key to our identities and we can define ourselves by what we consume. Hunt (2005) argues that this means we can choose a lifestyle and identity regardless of age: our age no longer determines who we are or how we live.

As a result, the old become a market for a vast range of 'body maintenance' or 'rejuvenation' goods and services through which they can create their identities. These include cosmetic surgery exercise equipment, gym memberships and anti-ageing products. These trends begin to break down the against stereotypes found in modern society. Two other features of postmodern society also undermine old age as a stigmatised life stage: 

• The centrality of the media - media images now portrays positive aspects of the lifestyles of the elderly.
• The emphasis on surface features - the body becomes a surface of which we can write identities. Anti-ageing products enable the old to write identities for themselves.

Pilcher (1955) argues that inequalities such as class and gender remain important. Many of these are related to the individual's previous occupational position.

Class - the m/c have better occupational pensions and greater savings from higher salaries. Poorer old people have a shorter life expectancy and suffer from more infirmity (more difficult to maintain a youthful self-identity). 

Gender - women's lower earnings and career breaks as carers mean lower pensions. They are also subject to sexist as well as ageing stereotyping, e.g. being described as 'old hags'. 

Postmodernists understate the importance of such inequalities. These are related to structures of wider society and play a major part in shaping the experience of old age, often restricting the freedom of the elderly to choose an identity through their consumption. Older people face discrimination that limits their choices: Age Concern (2014) found more people (29%) reported suffering age discrimination and any other form.

Hirsch (2005) argues that a number of important social policies will need to change to tackle the new problems posed by an ageing population.

The main problem will be how to finance a longer period of old age. This can be done by paying more from our savings and taxes while we are working, or by working longer, or both. Housing policy may need to change to encourage older people to ‘trade down' into smaller accommodation. This would release wealth to improve their standard of living and free up housing for younger people.

As Hirsch recognises, these policy changes require a cultural change in our attitudes towards old age. His view illustrates the notion that old age is a social construct - not fixed but something shaped and defined by society. E.g. in an ageing society, our idea of how old is enough to retire may change.

Another factor affecting the size and age of the population is migration. This refers to the movement of people from place to place (internal, within a society or internationally). 

Immigration: From 1900-1945 the largest immigrant group were the Irish (for economic reasons), followed by Eastern and Central European Jews (often refugees fleeing persecution) - very few immigrants were non-white.

During the 1950's, black immigrants from the Caribbean began to arrive in the UK, followed during the 1960's and 1970's by South Asian immigrants from India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.

One consequence is a more ethnically diverse society. By 2011, ethnic minority groups accounted for 14% of the population = greater diversity of family patterns. More people left the UK than entered and most immigrants were white. 

A series of immigration and nationality acts from 1962 to 1990 placed severe restrictions on non-white immigration. Before the 1980's, more people were emmigrating. By the 1980's, non-whites accounted for little more than a quarter of all immigrants, while the mainly white countries in the EU became the main source of settlers in the UK.

Emigration: From the mid-16th century until the 1980's, the UK was almost always a net exporter of people: more emigrated to live elsewhere than came to settle in the UK. Since 1900, emigrants have gone to the USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and South Africa.

The main reasons for emigration have been economic:

• 'Push' factors such as economic recession and unemployment at home.
• 'Pull' factors such as higher wages or better opportunities abroad. 

There has been an increase in both immigration and emigration in recent years. These trends have affected the size of the UK population, its age structure and the dependency ratio.

Population Size: It is growing in the UK, partly as a result of immigration:

• Net migration is high (e.g. 260,000 in 2014), with more immigrants than emigrants. 47% of the immigrants were non-EU citizens and 14% were British citizens returning to the UK.
• There is a natural increase, with births exceeding deaths. However, births to the UK born mothers remain low, whereas births to non-UK born mothers are higher and account for about 25% of all births (still remain below the replacement level of 2.1 per woman - the number needed to keep the population size stable). If not for net migration, the UK's population size would be shrinking.

Age Structure: Immigration lowers the average age of the population both directly and indirectly.

• Directly - immigrants are generally younger (e.g. 2011, the average age of UK passport holders was 41, whereas that of non-UK passport holders living in Britain was 31).
• Indirectly - being younger meant immigrants are more fertile and therefore produce more babies.

The Dependency Ratio: Immigration has three effects:

• Immigrants are more likely to be of working age and this helps to lower the dependency ratio. In addition, many older migrants return to their country of origin to retire.
• However, because they are younger, immigrants have more children, therefore increasing the ratio. Over time, however, these children will join the labour force and help to lower the ratio once again.
• Finally, the longer a group is settled in the country, the closer their fertility rate comes to the national average, reducing their overall impact on the dependency ratio.

Globalisation is the idea that barriers between societies are disappearing and people are becoming increasingly interconnected across national boundaries. 

Globalisation is the result of the growth of communication systems and global media, the creation of global markets, the fall of communism in Eastern Europe and the expansion of the EU. Many see globalisation as producing rapid social changes. One change is increased international migration - the movement of people of people across borders. 

There are three trends to global migration: acceleration, differentiation and the feminisation of migration.

There has been a speeding up of the rate of migration. For example, according to the United Nations (2013), between 2000 and 2013 international migration increased by 33%, to reach 232 million or 3.2% of the world's population. In the same year, 862,000 people either entered or left the UK.

There are many types of migrants, including permanent settlers, temporary workers, spouses, and forced migrants such as refugees and asylum seekers. Some may have legal entitlement and others may enter without permission. Globalisation is increasing the diversity of types of migrants. For example, students are now a major groups of migrants; in the UK in 2014, there were more Chinese-born (26%) than UK-born (23%) postgraduate students.Prior to 1990's, most immigrants had the right to settle and become citizens. They formed stable, geographically concentrated ethnic communities.

Super-diversity - Vertovec (2007) argues that since the 1990's globalisation has led to super-diversity. Migrants now come from a much wider range of countries. Even within a single ethnic group, individuals differ in terms of their legal status; e.g. as citizens or spouses. A given ethnic group may also be divided by culture or religion and be widely dispersed throughout the UK. 

Cohen (2006) distinguishes three types of immigrants:

• Citizens - with full citizenship rights (e.g. voting rights and access to benefits).
• Denizens are privileged foreign nationals welcomed by the state, e.g. billionaire.
• Helots are the most exploited group. States and employers regard them as 'disposable units of labour power', a reverse army of labour - found in unskilled, poorly paid work.

Today almost half of all global migrants are female. This has been called the globalisation of the gender division of labour, where female migrants find they are fitted into patriarchal stereotypes about women's roles as carers or providers of sexual services. Ehreinreich and Hochschild (2003) observe that care work, domestic work and sex work in western countries like the UK and USA is increasingly done by women from poor countries. This is a result of several trends:

• The expansion of service occupations (which traditionally employ women) in western countries has led to an increasing demand for female labour. 
• Western women have joined the labour force and are less willing or able to perform domestic labour.
• Western men remain unwilling to perform domestic labour.
• The failure of the state to provide adequate childcare.

The resulting gap has been partly filled by women from poor countries. E.g. Shutes (2011) reports that 40% of adult care nurses in the UK are migrants (most are females). There is a global transfer of women's emotional labour, e.g. migrant nannies provide care and affection for their employers' children at the expense of their own children left behind in their home country. Migrant women enter western countries as 'mail order' brides. This often reflects gendered and racialised stereotypes, e.g. of oriental women as subservient. Women migrants also enter the UK as illegally trafficked sex workers (slaves).

Today almost half of all global migrants are female. This has been called the globalisation of the gender division of labour, where female migrants find they are fitted into patriarchal stereotypes about women's roles as carers or providers of sexual services. Ehreinreich and Hochschild (2003) observe that care work, domestic work and sex work in western countries like the UK and USA is increasingly done by women from poor countries. This is a result of several trends:

• The expansion of service occupations (which traditionally employ women) in western countries has led to an increasing demand for female labour. 
• Western women have joined the labour force and are less willing or able to perform domestic labour.
• Western men remain unwilling to perform domestic labour.
• The failure of the state to provide adequate childcare.

The resulting gap has been partly filled by women from poor countries. E.g. Shutes (2011) reports that 40% of adult care nurses in the UK are migrants (most are females). There is a global transfer of women's emotional labour, e.g. migrant nannies provide care and affection for their employers' children at the expense of their own children left behind in their home country. Migrant women enter western countries as 'mail order' brides. This often reflects gendered and racialised stereotypes, e.g. of oriental women as subservient. Women migrants also enter the UK as illegally trafficked sex workers (slaves).

For migrants and their descendants, their country of origin may provide an additional source of identity. Migrants may develop hybrid identities made up of two or more different sources. Eade (1994) found that second-generation Bangladeshi Muslims in Britain, created hierarchal identities: they saw themselves as Muslim first then Bengali, then British. Those with hybrid identities may find that others challenge their identity claims or accuse them of not 'fitting in'.

Transitional Identities: Eriksen (2007) argues that globalisation has created more diverse migration patterns. Migrants do not see themselves as belonging to one country or culture but instead, develop transnational (neither one/nor) identities. Technology and the globalised economy encourages links and ties to countries of origin. E,g, he found that Chinese migrants in Rome benefited from speaking Mandarin as opposed to Italian as it was more important for their global connections.