Demographic Transition Model Case Study

Stage 1: Traditional rainforest tribes

In parts of Indonesia, Brazil and Ecuador, small numbers of people live separtely with little contact with the outside world. Retain high birth and death rates, makes them the people closest to a true stage 1 situation in the world today.

Stage 2: Afghanistan

Is an extremely poor country, held back by political instability. It has one of the worlds highest birth rates at 46.2 and a much lower death rate of 20.0. Natural increase is therefore 2.62 per cent per annum. Some 79 per cent of people are farmers, often normadic, so need children to help with crops and livestock. Cities like Kabul, the capital, have even higher rates of natural increase because easier access to medical care reduces the death rate while high numbers of young adults (who have migrated to the cities) increase the birth rate.

Stage 3: Brazil

Newly industrailising country (NIC). Although it is a country at a lesser stage of development, it is developing fast economically. The population will have almost doubled between 1975 and 2015, from 108millions to 210 million people. As a Roman Catholic country, it has a high birth rate, but rapidly improving standards of living mean people can see benefits from having fewer children.

Stage 4: USA

USA is the largest and most developed economy in the world. The world's third largest population (after China and India) with over 301million people in 2007, its growth is quite high for a Stage 4 country-mostly due to immigration. Many immigrants, come from Catholic Central America, but the USA is now encouraging a more highly trained Asian workforce who are likely to have lower birth rates.

Stage 5: Germany

Is almost as well developed as the USA but it has moved a stage further in the DTM. Women achieving high-powered positions at work, plus an ageing population, are factors that have brough Germany clearly into stage 5. One of the first countries to enter this stage, Germany's birth rate is well below replacement rate. The government has to cope with the costs of a large elderly population and a declining work force.