Voting behaviour

  • Created by: meliasyd
  • Created on: 18-05-19 13:44
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  • Most important factors affecting voting behaviour
    • Age
      • 2017 General Election = most important factor
        • 18-25 = 27% Conservatives 62% Labour
        • 65+ = 61% Conservatives 25% Labour
          • Labour's young votes makes less difference because they have lower turnout
            • 18-25 = 27% Conservatives 62% Labour
      • 2010 = age less important
        • 18-24 = 30% Conservatives 31% Labour
    • Class
      • Class dealignment = Traditions of working class and Labour and middle class and Conservative no longer exist
        • Reasons for : Margaret Thatcher + working class vote. Labour vote moved to UKIP. Increase of recency voting. Decline of working class. Expansion of middle class.
        • Partisan dealignment
      • Sociological model = Classes AB = Conservatives, Classes DE= Labour
      • 2017 = sociological model, AB voters = 47% Conservative, 37% Labour DE voters = 38% Conservative, 47% Labour.
        • Sociological model = evident, but less stark
    • Gender
      • Little significance
        • 2015 - Men = 38% Conservative, 30% Labour Women = 37% Conservative, 33% Labour
        • 2010 - Men = 38% Conservative, 28% Labour Women = 36% Conservative, 31% Labour
        • 2017 - Men = 44% Conservative, 40% Labour Women = 43% Conservative 42% Labour
    • Race
      • Black and Minority Ethnic groups consistently vote Labour
        • 2015 election - 65% Labour , 23% Conservatives
        • 2010 election - 60 % Labour, 16% Conservatives
        • 2017 election - 73% Labour , 19% Conservatives
    • Recency Factors
      • eg. Valence issues - similar to rational choice theory
        • Competence of each party
      • Economics (Personal and National)
      • Centrism = avoiding voting for extremes
        • eg. 2010, all parties moved towards centre to attract majority vote in wake of Blair premiership
      • Media Influence
        • Dominant ideology theory
          • 'It's the Sun wot won it', the Sun newspaper's claim to Conservative victory in 1992 election.
      • Party leadership
        • Image of party leader
          • 2010 General Election debate swayed opinion polls towards Nick Clegg + against Gordon Brown
    • Region
      • North / South divide - Middle England = battleground, swing seats
      • Inner cities / industrialised areas = Labour support
    • Issue voting
      • Biggest issue in recent times = Brexit.
        • Big impact in European elections, Local Elections recently held in 2019
      • Other issues with big impact = Sleaze (1997), Iraq War (2003)
      • RATIONAL CHOICE VOTING THEORY
        • Which manifesto best represents issues and how people wish for them to be dealt with
        • Ivor Crewe
        • Personal benefit

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