Are long term or short term factors more influential in influencing voting behaviour of the electorate of Wales and the UK?

Do long term or short term factors have the greatest influence on voting behaviour in Wales and the UK?

Paragraph 1 - Long term 

 Party loyalty can create a feeling of secureness, build community. Becoming a member shows loyalty towards your political party. The Labour party as a membership of 432,000 members who consistently vote for them. However, the LibDems have only 74,000 members, and do consistently worse in General Elections- currently have 15 seats compared to Labours 200. 

 Paragraph 2 - Short term 

Issue voting, winners of the election will be the ones who appeal to the salient issues of the electorate. In 1997, Labour was more intune with the views of the electorate. Labour highlighted salient…