The Growth Of World Population
Growth Over the Years
- In 1999, the world population reached 6 billion
- In 2013, the world population reached 7 billion.
Causes of Population Change
- Health - the control of disease, birth control measures, ifant mortality rates, sanitation and numbers of doctors.
- Education - health education, females in education and literacy levels.
- Social Provision - levels of care for elderly and clean water supply.
- Cultural Factors - religious attitudes to birth control and the role of women in society.
- Technology - advances and developments in technology.
How the Population Measured?
- Population Structure:- the breakdown of a country's population into groups defined by age and gender.
Reasons for Growth
Reasons for Exponential Growth
- The development of crop growing rather than simple gathering.
- The invention of metal tools.
- Advances in plant breeding.
- Inventions of machinery that could be used in agriculture.
- Advances in medicine and hygiene.
- Developments in preservation and storage of food.
Reasons for Zero Growth
- There will be not enough land for people to live and growing crops at the same time.
- Stretch of resources, such as fossil fuels and jobs.
- Not enough of food so starvation causes deaths.
Definitions of Population Change
Birth rate:- A measure of an area's fertility. It is expressed as the number of live birth per 1000 people in a year.
Death rate:- The number of deaths per 1000 people in a year.
Life expectancy:- The average number of years from birth that a person can expect to live.
Longevity:- The increase in life expectancy over a period of time.
Natural change:- The change in size of a population caused by the interrelationship between birth and death rates.
Infant mortality:- A measure of the number of infants dying under one year of age, usually expressed as the number of deaths per thousand live births per year.
The Demographic Transition Model
Stage 1 (High Fluctuating)
- High birth rate and high death rate.
- Limited birth control.
- Poor sanition/more disease.
- E.g. Amazon Tribes
Stage 2 (Early Expanding)
- High birth rate and falling death rate.
- Improved health.
- Lower child mortality.
- E.g. Sri Lanka
Stage 3 (Late Expanding)
- Falling birth rate and falling death rate.
- Greater access to edication for women.
- Compulsory schooling.
- E.g. China
The Demographic Transition Model 2
Stage 4 (Low Expanding)
- Low birth rate and low death rate.
- Significant changes in personal lifestyles.
- More women in the workforce.
- People have high personal incomes.
- E.g. Australia
Stage 5 (Decline)
- Death rate slightly exeeds the birth rate.
- The population starts to decrease.
- Greater financial independence of women.
- An increase in non-traditional lifestyles.
- E.g. Italy
Strengths and Weaknesses of Demographic Transition
- It is dynamic, shows change through time.
- Many other countries in Europe and North America went through similar stages.
- Some newly industrialised countries such as Singapore and South Korea seem to be going through the similar stages.
- Based on industrialising countries, so not relevant to non-industrialising countries.
- The model assumed that stage 2 followed from indutrialisation.
- Stage 3 follows from stage 2 after a few decades, but some countries are held back.
- Countries in Africa have an increased death rate because of HIV/Aids.
Demographic Change in the UK Case Study
- During medieval times, both birth and death rates in the UK were high.
Falling death rate
- From the mid-eighteenth century to about 1875 was a tie of rapid urbanisation.
- The provision of clean, piped water and the installation of sewage systems, which improved personal and domestic clenliness.
- The combination of better nutrition and the general improvements in health brough the Public Health Acts
Falling birth rate
- After 1875, the death rate continued to decrease, and there was a reduction in the birth rate.
- There was a increase attention to merternity and child welfare.
- The desire of smaller families were due to financial costs and schooling (to age 13) became compulsory.
- By 1940, the birth rate fell again to 14 per 1000, due to the war.
- Migration:- A permanent or semi-permanent change of residence of an individual or group of people.
Causes of Migration
- Better climate
- Natural distaster
- More jobs
- Less taxes
- Closer to family
- Racial tension
Refugees:- persons unable or unwilling to return to the homeland for fear of certain factors, e.g. persecution, religion or race.
Asylum seekers:- the formal application by a refugee to reside in a country when they arrive in that country.
- International migration make up about 3% of the world's population.
There have been increases in:
- Attmepts at illegal, economically motivated migration.
- Those seeking asylum.
- Migration between more developed countries.
- Short-term migration.
- Movement of migrants between less developed countries.
There has been a decline in:
- Number of people who decline for life.
- Legal, life-long migration, particularly from less to more developed countries.
- The number of people migrating with the purpose of reunitinng family members.
Migration Case Study - Poland
Poland to the UK
- In July 2006, 447,000 people from Eastern Europe applied for work in the UK, 65% were from Poland.
- Average unemployment in Poland of 18.5% in 2005.
- Youth unemployment of around 40%.
- Rural unemployment of 40%.
- Unemplyment in the UK at 5.1%.
- Skill shortages along with high demand for skilled and semi-skilled labour.
- GDP in Poland was $12,700 per heads compared to $30,900 in the UK.
Poland Case Study 2
Benefits on the UK
- $2.5 billion contributed to the economy by Eastern European immigrants.
- They filled a skills gap, in reality they took on undesirable low paid jobs.
- New migrants typically hard working, enthusiastic, skilled and flexible.
Impacts on the UK
- Additional stress on NHS.
- Demand for housing leading to higher rents/prices.
- Increased pressures on education placed by children of immigrants.
Benefits on Poland
- Less pressure on resources.
- Political will raise standards of living to bring the emigrants back.
Impacts on Poland
- Brain drain of ckilled workers seeking employment abroad.
- Poland has lost 7% of it workforce in 2006.
Over and Under Population
Overpopulation:- when there are too many people and not enough resources available, e.g Bangladesh.
Underpopulation:- when there are no enough people compared to the number of sources, e.g. Canada and Austrlia.
Optimum population:- the balanced amount of people compared to the resources available, e.g. Germany.
Carrying population:- the point at which you have optimum population. This is the maximum number of people that can be supported by an area of land.
Population Case Study - Italy
Facts about Italy's Population
- Italy's population will decline from 58 million in 2005, to 56 million by 2025.
- The fertility was 1.33 in 2004.
- Life expectancy is 81.
Why is this happening?
- More Italians stay in full time education - more dependent on their parents.
- The price of hosuing has increase - difficult for young adults to set up home of their own.
- Fewer well-paid low-skill jobs.
Italians Cohabiting with Their Parents
- In 2003, 92.3% of men aged 20-24 were living with parents.
- In 2003, 83.7% of women aged 20-24 were living with parents.
What is Italy doing?
- Grants for education and allowances for families.
- Manage immigration by selecting new mmigrants to match labour force vacancies.
Population Case Study - China's One-Child Policy
Facts about China
- China's fertility rate is 1.7 children born/woman.
- Life expectancy is 73.
- The policy slogan was, "Later, Longer, Fewer."
1970 Population Policy
- Late marriage - men were encoraged to marry no earlier than 28 years old and women no earlier than 25 years old.
- Longer spacing between births - 4 year gap.
- Fewer children - urban families limited to 2 children, and rural families to 3 children.
China's One Child Policy Continued
1979 One Child Policy
- Since 1949, China's population began to grow causing a problem feeding the population.
- Each couple was allowed one child.
- To encourage, there was education, childcare and healthcare to all.
- Free birth control/family planning.
- Cash bonuses, improved hosuing, free education and childcare for couples with 1 child.
- These benefits will be taken away and a finacial penalty will be given out if rules the broken.
- Couples had to wait until 25 (men) or 23 (women) to get married.
- Women pregnant with their 2nd child could be forced to have an abortion and offer to be sterilised.
- 'Granny police' were recruited in settlements to spy on people who might try ro keep a pregnancy secret.
- By the end of the 1970' - the use of contraception has increased and fertility rate has halved.
- In rural areas sons were more respected as they could work the fields and look after their parents.
- Many baby girls were abandoned and killed - now there is more men than women.
Population Case Study - The Policy Today
- Couples who are only children are allowed two children.
- Government officals are expected to set an example by only having one child.
- People are getting wealthier - they have larger families - pay the fines.
- Couples don't need permission to have a first child.
- It is illegal to disciminate against women who give birth to girls.
- Also, sex-selected abortions are prohibited.
Successes of One-Child Policy
- 400 million less births have happened.
- Women can concentrate on having a career.
- The total fertility rate has been decreased.
- China is successfully industrialising.
Failures of One-Child Policy
- Now 60 million more men than women.
- China has still got 1 million more births than deaths every 5 weeks.
- The policy resulted in an ageing population - 7% of the population are over 65 years.
- There has been a water shortage.
Population Case Study - Iran's Baby Boom
- Iran's population was at over 70 million in 2006.
- 1/4 of its people are aged 15 or younger.
- Between 1979 and 1989 - 18 million babies were born.
- The baby boom could either provide a large amount of skilled people or it could result in a second baby boom.
Population Case Study - Sub-Sahara
- These countries are undergoing a population crisis.
- These countries are typically in stage 2 - with rapid popullation growth.
- In 1990, the HIV/Aids epidemic struck the area.
- It spred rapidly - poor health and education, high cost of drugs.
- He said that the population will grow at a much higher rate than food.
- The world will hit a crisis point - causes war and famine.
- Then there will be a population crash.
- Boserup believed that people have the resources of knowledge and technology to increase food supplies.
- Pressure would promote innovation.
- She admitted that overpopulation could lead to unsuitable farmland.
- He said that before we hit a crisis point, we would find more resources.
- He also said we would discover alternative resources and produce alternative ways of organising society without a specific resource.
The Club of Rome
- They said that there are limits on the populations growth.
- This would cause a uncontrollable decline in population.
People in Cities Case Study - London
- In 1900's London was the biggest city with around 6.5 million people.
- By 2005 London was 25th in the world city population ranking.
- Londons population has fluctuated - it increase in 1939 and deacreased in the Second World War.
- London's population has decreased because people have moved to the countryside - rising house prices and increased transport.
- The populatio is now increasing because of immigration.
What Makes Cities Grow?
- The hope of jobs
- The hope of being able to earn money to send back home.
- Shortages of land, food and opportunities in the rural areas.
- The pull of bright lights (entertainment).
- War, natural disasters.
- Hope that they will recieve support from the state.
- Crop failure.
- Lack of job opportunities.
- Lack of services.
- Lack of education.
Case Study - Indonesia
Transmigration in Indonesia
- Transmigration was a scheme set up by the government - provided transportation to new and rural areas.
- The scheme provided a house and a farming plot, with basic infrastructure and living allowance.
- The main goal was - to move millions of Indonesians from densely populated to less populated islands.
- Indonesia's outer islands contain 10% of the world's rainforests.
- Transmigration violated customary land rights.
- Transmigration failed to reach its core goals.
- Rather than alleviating poverty - the programme redistributed poverty.
- The governemnt has stooped he tranmigration government.
- Central government are relying on exploitation of natural resources (logging, mining, oil palm and industrial shrimp farming).
Case Study -The USA
Economic Migration: the USA
- Immigration has been a dominant trend in the demography of the USA.
- In 1965, an act was passed to only let 290,000 immigrants in.
- In 1990, the quota was raised by 40%.
- Between 1991 and 1996 - more than 5 million immigrants arrived.
- In 1997, over 25% of the population of California were born outside of the USA.
- In Los Angeles it was almost 40%.
- Authorities have estimated that 2.5 to 4 million illegal immigrants entered in 1990's.
- In 1996, congress increased the number of guards on the border with Mexico.
- Immigrants on average pay 32% less tax
- Over a period of 40 years, the children of immigrants will pay far more to the state in taxes than they will take.