Population Change

Growth Over the Years

• In 1999, the world population reached 6 billion
• In 2013, the world population reached 7 billion.

Causes of Population Change

• Health - the control of disease, birth control measures, ifant mortality rates, sanitation and numbers of doctors.
• Education - health education, females in education and literacy levels.
• Social Provision - levels of care for elderly and clean water supply.
• Cultural Factors - religious attitudes to birth control and the role of women in society.
• Technology - advances and developments in technology.

How the Population Measured?

• Population Structure:- the breakdown of a country's population into groups defined by age and gender.

Reasons for Exponential Growth

• The development of crop growing rather than simple gathering.
• The invention of metal tools.
• Advances in plant breeding.
• Inventions of machinery that could be used in agriculture.
• Advances in medicine and hygiene.
• Developments in preservation and storage of food.

Reasons for Zero Growth

• There will be not enough land for people to live and growing crops at the same time.
• Stretch of resources, such as fossil fuels and jobs.
• Not enough of food so starvation causes deaths.

Birth rate:- A measure of an area's fertility. It is expressed as the number of live birth per 1000 people in a year.

Death rate:- The number of deaths per 1000 people in a year.

Life expectancy:- The average number of years from birth that a person can expect to live.

Longevity:- The increase in life expectancy over a period of time.

Natural change:- The change in size of a population caused by the interrelationship between birth and death rates.

Infant mortality:- A measure of the number of infants dying under one year of age, usually expressed as the number of deaths  per thousand live births per year.

Stage 1 (High Fluctuating)

• High birth rate and high death rate.
• Limited birth control.
• Poor sanition/more disease.
• E.g. Amazon Tribes

Stage 2 (Early Expanding)

• High birth rate and falling death rate.
• Improved health.
• Lower child mortality.
• E.g. Sri Lanka

Stage 3 (Late Expanding)

• Falling birth rate and falling death rate.
• Greater access to edication for women.
• Compulsory schooling.
• E.g. China

Stage 4 (Low Expanding)

• Low birth rate and low death rate.
• Significant changes in personal lifestyles.
• More women in the workforce.
• People have high personal incomes.
• E.g. Australia

Stage 5 (Decline)

• Death rate slightly exeeds the birth rate.
• The population starts to decrease.
• Greater financial independence of women.
• An increase in non-traditional lifestyles.
• E.g. Italy

Strengths

• It is dynamic, shows change through time.
• Many other countries in Europe and North America went through similar stages.
• Some newly industrialised countries such as Singapore and South Korea seem to be going through the similar stages.

Weaknesses

• Based on industrialising countries, so not relevant to non-industrialising countries.
• The model assumed that stage 2 followed from indutrialisation.
• Stage 3 follows from stage 2 after a few decades, but some countries are held back.
• Countries in Africa have an increased death rate because of HIV/Aids.

• During medieval times, both birth and death rates in the UK were high.

Falling death rate

• From the mid-eighteenth century to about 1875 was a tie of rapid urbanisation.
• The provision of clean, piped water and the installation of sewage systems, which improved personal and domestic clenliness.
• The combination of better nutrition and the general improvements in health brough the Public Health Acts

Falling birth rate

• After 1875, the death rate continued to decrease, and there was a reduction in the birth rate.
• There was a increase attention to merternity and child welfare.
• The desire of smaller families were due to financial costs and schooling (to age 13) became compulsory.
• By 1940, the birth rate fell again to 14 per 1000, due to the war.

• Migration:- A permanent or semi-permanent change of residence of an individual or group of people.

Causes of Migration

• Physical:
  • Better climate
  • Natural distaster
• Economic:
  • More jobs
  • Less taxes
• Social:
  • Closer to family
  • Retirement
• Cultural:
  • Religion
  • Racial tension
• Political:
  • Conflict
  • Dictatorship

Refugees:- persons unable or unwilling to return to the homeland for fear of certain factors, e.g. persecution, religion or race.

Asylum seekers:- the formal application by a refugee to reside in a country when they arrive in that country.

• International migration make up about 3% of the world's population.

There have been increases in:

• Attmepts at illegal, economically motivated migration.
• Those seeking asylum.
• Migration between more developed countries.
• Short-term migration.
• Movement of migrants between less developed countries.

There has been a decline in:

• Number of people who decline for life.
• Legal, life-long migration, particularly from less to more developed countries.
• The number of people migrating with the purpose of reunitinng family members.

Poland to the UK

• In July 2006, 447,000 people from Eastern Europe applied for work in the UK, 65% were from Poland.

Push Factors

• Average unemployment in Poland of 18.5% in 2005.
• Youth unemployment of around 40%.
• Rural unemployment of 40%.

Pull Factors

• Unemplyment in the UK at 5.1%.
• Skill shortages along with high demand for skilled and semi-skilled labour.
• GDP in Poland was $12,700 per heads compared to $30,900 in the UK.

Benefits on the UK

• $2.5 billion contributed to the economy by Eastern European immigrants.
• They filled a skills gap, in reality they took on undesirable low paid jobs.
• New migrants typically hard working, enthusiastic, skilled and flexible.

Impacts on the UK

• Additional stress on NHS.
• Demand for housing leading to higher rents/prices.
• Increased pressures on education placed by children of immigrants.

Benefits on Poland

• Less pressure on resources.
• Political will raise standards of living to bring the emigrants back.

Impacts on Poland

• Brain drain of ckilled workers seeking employment abroad.
• Poland has lost 7% of it workforce in 2006.

Overpopulation:- when there are too many people and not enough resources available, e.g Bangladesh.

Underpopulation:- when there are no enough people compared to the number of sources, e.g. Canada and Austrlia.

Optimum population:- the balanced amount of people compared to the resources available, e.g. Germany.

Carrying population:- the point at which you have optimum population. This is the maximum number of people that can be supported by an area of land.

Facts about Italy's Population

• Italy's population will decline from 58 million in 2005, to 56 million by 2025.
• The fertility was 1.33 in 2004.
• Life expectancy is 81.

Why is this happening?

• More Italians stay in full time education - more dependent on their parents.
• The price of hosuing has increase - difficult for young adults to set up home of their own.
• Fewer well-paid low-skill jobs.

Italians Cohabiting with Their Parents

• In 2003, 92.3% of men aged 20-24 were living with parents.
• In 2003, 83.7% of women aged 20-24 were living with parents.

What is Italy doing?

• Grants for education and allowances for families.
• Manage immigration by selecting new mmigrants to match labour force vacancies.

Facts about China

• China's fertility rate is 1.7 children born/woman.
• Life expectancy is 73.
• The policy slogan was, "Later, Longer, Fewer."

1970 Population Policy

• Late marriage - men were encoraged to marry no earlier than 28 years old and women no earlier than 25 years old.
• Longer spacing between births - 4 year gap.
• Fewer children - urban families limited to 2 children, and rural families to 3 children.

1979 One Child Policy

• Since 1949, China's population began to grow causing a problem feeding the population.
• Each couple was allowed one child.
• To encourage, there was education, childcare and healthcare to all.
• Free birth control/family planning.
• Cash bonuses, improved hosuing, free education and childcare for couples with 1 child.
• These benefits will be taken away and a finacial penalty will be given out if rules the broken.
• Couples had to wait until 25 (men) or 23 (women) to get married.
• Women pregnant with their 2nd child could be forced to have an abortion and offer to be sterilised.
• 'Granny police' were recruited in settlements to spy on people who might try ro keep a pregnancy secret.
• By the end of the 1970' - the use of contraception has increased and fertility rate has halved.
• In rural areas sons were more respected as they could work the fields and look after their parents.
• Many baby girls were abandoned and killed - now there is more men than women.

• Couples who are only children are allowed two children.
• Government officals are expected to set an example by only having one child.
• People are getting wealthier - they have larger families - pay the fines.
• Couples don't need permission to have a first child.
• It is illegal to disciminate against women who give birth to girls.
• Also, sex-selected abortions are prohibited.

Successes of One-Child Policy

• 400 million less births have happened.
• Women can concentrate on having a career.
• The total fertility rate has been decreased.
• China is successfully industrialising.

Failures of One-Child Policy

• Now 60 million more men than women.
• China has still got 1 million more births than deaths every 5 weeks.
• The policy resulted in an ageing population - 7% of the population are over 65 years.
• There has been a water shortage.

• Iran's population was at over 70 million in 2006.
• 1/4 of its people are aged 15 or younger.
• Between 1979 and 1989 - 18 million babies were born.
• The baby boom could either provide a large amount of skilled people or it could result in a second baby boom.

• These countries are undergoing a population crisis.
• These countries are typically in stage 2 - with rapid popullation growth.
• In 1990, the HIV/Aids epidemic struck the area.
• It spred rapidly - poor health and education, high cost of drugs.

Malthus

• He said that the population will grow at a much higher rate than food.
• The world will hit a crisis point - causes war and famine.
• Then there will be a population crash.

Esther Boserup

• Boserup believed that people have the resources of knowledge and technology to increase food supplies.
• Pressure would promote innovation.
• She admitted that overpopulation could lead to unsuitable farmland.

Simon's Theory

• He said that before we hit a crisis point, we would find more resources.
• He also said we would discover alternative resources and produce alternative ways of organising society without a specific resource.

The Club of Rome

• They said that there are limits on the populations growth.
• This would cause a uncontrollable decline in population.

• In 1900's London was the biggest city with around 6.5 million people.
• By 2005 London was 25th in the world city population ranking.
• Londons population has fluctuated - it increase in 1939 and deacreased in the Second World War.
• London's population has decreased because people have moved to the countryside - rising house prices and increased transport.
• The populatio is now increasing because of immigration.

Pull Factors

• The hope of jobs
• The hope of being able to earn money to send back home.
• Shortages of land, food and opportunities in the rural areas.
• The pull of bright lights (entertainment).
• War, natural disasters.
• Hope that they will recieve support from the state.

Push Factors

• Crop failure.
• Lack of job opportunities.
• Lack of services.
• Lack of education.

Transmigration in Indonesia

• Transmigration was a scheme set up by the government - provided transportation to new and rural areas.
• The scheme provided a house and a farming plot, with basic infrastructure and living allowance.
• The main goal was - to move millions of Indonesians from densely populated to less populated islands.

Criticisms

• Indonesia's outer islands contain 10% of the world's rainforests.
• Transmigration violated customary land rights.
• Transmigration failed to reach its core goals.
• Rather than alleviating poverty - the programme redistributed poverty.

Recent Changes

• The governemnt has stooped he tranmigration government.
• Central government are relying on exploitation of natural resources (logging, mining, oil palm and industrial shrimp farming).

Economic Migration: the USA

• Immigration has been a dominant trend in the demography of the USA.
• In 1965, an act was passed to only let 290,000 immigrants in.
• In 1990, the quota was raised by 40%.
• Between 1991 and 1996 - more than 5 million immigrants arrived.
• In 1997, over 25% of the population of California were born outside of the USA.
• In Los Angeles it was almost 40%.
• Authorities have estimated that 2.5 to 4 million illegal immigrants entered in 1990's.
• In 1996, congress increased the number of guards on the border with Mexico.
• Immigrants on average pay 32% less tax
• Over a period of 40 years, the children of immigrants will pay far more to the state in taxes than they will take.