Population Change

  • Created by: Sophie
  • Created on: 16-01-14 17:36

The Growth Of World Population

Growth Over the Years

  • In 1999, the world population reached 6 billion
  • In 2013, the world population reached 7 billion.

Causes of Population Change

  • Health - the control of disease, birth control measures, ifant mortality rates, sanitation and numbers of doctors.
  • Education - health education, females in education and literacy levels.
  • Social Provision - levels of care for elderly and clean water supply.
  • Cultural Factors - religious attitudes to birth control and the role of women in society.
  • Technology - advances and developments in technology.

How the Population Measured?

  • Population Structure:- the breakdown of a country's population into groups defined by age and gender.
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Reasons for Growth

Reasons for Exponential Growth

  • The development of crop growing rather than simple gathering.
  • The invention of metal tools.
  • Advances in plant breeding.
  • Inventions of machinery that could be used in agriculture.
  • Advances in medicine and hygiene.
  • Developments in preservation and storage of food.

Reasons for Zero Growth

  • There will be not enough land for people to live and growing crops at the same time.
  • Stretch of resources, such as fossil fuels and jobs.
  • Not enough of food so starvation causes deaths.
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Definitions of Population Change

Birth rate:- A measure of an area's fertility. It is expressed as the number of live birth per 1000 people in a year.

Death rate:- The number of deaths per 1000 people in a year.

Life expectancy:- The average number of years from birth that a person can expect to live.

Longevity:- The increase in life expectancy over a period of time.

Natural change:- The change in size of a population caused by the interrelationship between birth and death rates.

Infant mortality:- A measure of the number of infants dying under one year of age, usually expressed as the number of deaths  per thousand live births per year.

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The Demographic Transition Model

Stage 1 (High Fluctuating)

  • High birth rate and high death rate.
  • Limited birth control.
  • Poor sanition/more disease.
  • E.g. Amazon Tribes

Stage 2 (Early Expanding)

  • High birth rate and falling death rate.
  • Improved health.
  • Lower child mortality.
  • E.g. Sri Lanka

Stage 3 (Late Expanding)

  • Falling birth rate and falling death rate.
  • Greater access to edication for women.
  • Compulsory schooling.
  • E.g. China
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The Demographic Transition Model 2

Stage 4 (Low Expanding)

  • Low birth rate and low death rate.
  • Significant changes in personal lifestyles.
  • More women in the workforce.
  • People have high personal incomes.
  • E.g. Australia

Stage 5 (Decline)

  • Death rate slightly exeeds the birth rate.
  • The population starts to decrease.
  • Greater financial independence of women.
  • An increase in non-traditional lifestyles.
  • E.g. Italy
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Strengths and Weaknesses of Demographic Transition


  • It is dynamic, shows change through time.
  • Many other countries in Europe and North America went through similar stages.
  • Some newly industrialised countries such as Singapore and South Korea seem to be going through the similar stages.


  • Based on industrialising countries, so not relevant to non-industrialising countries.
  • The model assumed that stage 2 followed from indutrialisation.
  • Stage 3 follows from stage 2 after a few decades, but some countries are held back.
  • Countries in Africa have an increased death rate because of HIV/Aids.
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Demographic Change in the UK Case Study

  • During medieval times, both birth and death rates in the UK were high.

Falling death rate

  • From the mid-eighteenth century to about 1875 was a tie of rapid urbanisation.
  • The provision of clean, piped water and the installation of sewage systems, which improved personal and domestic clenliness.
  • The combination of better nutrition and the general improvements in health brough the Public Health Acts

Falling birth rate

  • After 1875, the death rate continued to decrease, and there was a reduction in the birth rate.
  • There was a increase attention to merternity and child welfare.
  • The desire of smaller families were due to financial costs and schooling (to age 13) became compulsory.
  • By 1940, the birth rate fell again to 14 per 1000, due to the war.
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  • Migration:- A permanent or semi-permanent change of residence of an individual or group of people.

Causes of Migration

  • Physical:
    • Better climate
    • Natural distaster
  • Economic:
    • More jobs
    • Less taxes
  • Social:
    • Closer to family
    • Retirement
  • Cultural:
    • Religion
    • Racial tension
  • Political:
    • Conflict
    • Dictatorship
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International Migration

Refugees:- persons unable or unwilling to return to the homeland for fear of certain factors, e.g. persecution, religion or race.

Asylum seekers:- the formal application by a refugee to reside in a country when they arrive in that country.

  • International migration make up about 3% of the world's population.

There have been increases in:

  • Attmepts at illegal, economically motivated migration.
  • Those seeking asylum.
  • Migration between more developed countries.
  • Short-term migration.
  • Movement of migrants between less developed countries.

There has been a decline in:

  • Number of people who decline for life.
  • Legal, life-long migration, particularly from less to more developed countries.
  • The number of people migrating with the purpose of reunitinng family members.
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Migration Case Study - Poland

Poland to the UK

  • In July 2006, 447,000 people from Eastern Europe applied for work in the UK, 65% were from Poland.

Push Factors

  • Average unemployment in Poland of 18.5% in 2005.
  • Youth unemployment of around 40%.
  • Rural unemployment of 40%.

Pull Factors

  • Unemplyment in the UK at 5.1%.
  • Skill shortages along with high demand for skilled and semi-skilled labour.
  • GDP in Poland was $12,700 per heads compared to $30,900 in the UK.
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Poland Case Study 2

Benefits on the UK

  • $2.5 billion contributed to the economy by Eastern European immigrants.
  • They filled a skills gap, in reality they took on undesirable low paid jobs.
  • New migrants typically hard working, enthusiastic, skilled and flexible.

Impacts on the UK

  • Additional stress on NHS.
  • Demand for housing leading to higher rents/prices.
  • Increased pressures on education placed by children of immigrants.

Benefits on Poland

  • Less pressure on resources.
  • Political will raise standards of living to bring the emigrants back.

Impacts on Poland

  • Brain drain of ckilled workers seeking employment abroad.
  • Poland has lost 7% of it workforce in 2006.
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Over and Under Population

Overpopulation:- when there are too many people and not enough resources available, e.g Bangladesh.

Underpopulation:- when there are no enough people compared to the number of sources, e.g. Canada and Austrlia.

Optimum population:- the balanced amount of people compared to the resources available, e.g. Germany.

Carrying population:- the point at which you have optimum population. This is the maximum number of people that can be supported by an area of land.

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Population Case Study - Italy

Facts about Italy's Population

  • Italy's population will decline from 58 million in 2005, to 56 million by 2025.
  • The fertility was 1.33 in 2004.
  • Life expectancy is 81.

Why is this happening?

  • More Italians stay in full time education - more dependent on their parents.
  • The price of hosuing has increase - difficult for young adults to set up home of their own.
  • Fewer well-paid low-skill jobs.

Italians Cohabiting with Their Parents

  • In 2003, 92.3% of men aged 20-24 were living with parents.
  • In 2003, 83.7% of women aged 20-24 were living with parents.

What is Italy doing?

  • Grants for education and allowances for families.
  • Manage immigration by selecting new mmigrants to match labour force vacancies.
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Population Case Study - China's One-Child Policy

Facts about China

  • China's fertility rate is 1.7 children born/woman.
  • Life expectancy is 73.
  • The policy slogan was, "Later, Longer, Fewer."

1970 Population Policy

  • Late marriage - men were encoraged to marry no earlier than 28 years old and women no earlier than 25 years old.
  • Longer spacing between births - 4 year gap.
  • Fewer children - urban families limited to 2 children, and rural families to 3 children.

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China's One Child Policy Continued

1979 One Child Policy

  • Since 1949, China's population began to grow causing a problem feeding the population.
  • Each couple was allowed one child.
  • To encourage, there was education, childcare and healthcare to all.
  • Free birth control/family planning.
  • Cash bonuses, improved hosuing, free education and childcare for couples with 1 child.
  • These benefits will be taken away and a finacial penalty will be given out if rules the broken.
  • Couples had to wait until 25 (men) or 23 (women) to get married.
  • Women pregnant with their 2nd child could be forced to have an abortion and offer to be sterilised.
  • 'Granny police' were recruited in settlements to spy on people who might try ro keep a pregnancy secret.
  • By the end of the 1970' - the use of contraception has increased and fertility rate has halved.
  • In rural areas sons were more respected as they could work the fields and look after their parents.
  • Many baby girls were abandoned and killed - now there is more men than women.
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Population Case Study - The Policy Today

  • Couples who are only children are allowed two children.
  • Government officals are expected to set an example by only having one child.
  • People are getting wealthier - they have larger families - pay the fines.
  • Couples don't need permission to have a first child.
  • It is illegal to disciminate against women who give birth to girls.
  • Also, sex-selected abortions are prohibited.

Successes of One-Child Policy

  • 400 million less births have happened.
  • Women can concentrate on having a career.
  • The total fertility rate has been decreased.
  • China is successfully industrialising.

Failures of One-Child Policy

  • Now 60 million more men than women.
  • China has still got 1 million more births than deaths every 5 weeks.
  • The policy resulted in an ageing population - 7% of the population are over 65 years.
  • There has been a water shortage.
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Population Case Study - Iran's Baby Boom

  • Iran's population was at over 70 million in 2006.
  • 1/4 of its people are aged 15 or younger.
  • Between 1979 and 1989 - 18 million babies were born.
  • The baby boom could either provide a large amount of skilled people or it could result in a second baby boom.
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Population Case Study - Sub-Sahara

  • These countries are undergoing a population crisis.
  • These countries are typically in stage 2 - with rapid popullation growth.
  • In 1990, the HIV/Aids epidemic struck the area.
  • It spred rapidly - poor health and education, high cost of drugs.
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Population Theories


  • He said that the population will grow at a much higher rate than food.
  • The world will hit a crisis point - causes war and famine.
  • Then there will be a population crash.

Esther Boserup

  • Boserup believed that people have the resources of knowledge and technology to increase food supplies.
  • Pressure would promote innovation.
  • She admitted that overpopulation could lead to unsuitable farmland.

Simon's Theory

  • He said that before we hit a crisis point, we would find more resources.
  • He also said we would discover alternative resources and produce alternative ways of organising society without a specific resource.

The Club of Rome

  • They said that there are limits on the populations growth.
  • This would cause a uncontrollable decline in population.
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People in Cities Case Study - London

  • In 1900's London was the biggest city with around 6.5 million people.
  • By 2005 London was 25th in the world city population ranking.
  • Londons population has fluctuated - it increase in 1939 and deacreased in the Second World War.
  • London's population has decreased because people have moved to the countryside - rising house prices and increased transport.
  • The populatio is now increasing because of immigration.
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What Makes Cities Grow?

Pull Factors

  • The hope of jobs
  • The hope of being able to earn money to send back home.
  • Shortages of land, food and opportunities in the rural areas.
  • The pull of bright lights (entertainment).
  • War, natural disasters.
  • Hope that they will recieve support from the state.

Push Factors

  • Crop failure.
  • Lack of job opportunities.
  • Lack of services.
  • Lack of education.
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Case Study - Indonesia

Transmigration in Indonesia

  • Transmigration was a scheme set up by the government - provided transportation to new and rural areas.
  • The scheme provided a house and a farming plot, with basic infrastructure and living allowance.
  • The main goal was - to move millions of Indonesians from densely populated to less populated islands.


  • Indonesia's outer islands contain 10% of the world's rainforests.
  • Transmigration violated customary land rights.
  • Transmigration failed to reach its core goals.
  • Rather than alleviating poverty - the programme redistributed poverty.

Recent Changes

  • The governemnt has stooped he tranmigration government.
  • Central government are relying on exploitation of natural resources (logging, mining, oil palm and industrial shrimp farming).

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Case Study -The USA

Economic Migration: the USA

  • Immigration has been a dominant trend in the demography of the USA.
  • In 1965, an act was passed to only let 290,000 immigrants in.
  • In 1990, the quota was raised by 40%.
  • Between 1991 and 1996 - more than 5 million immigrants arrived.
  • In 1997, over 25% of the population of California were born outside of the USA.
  • In Los Angeles it was almost 40%.
  • Authorities have estimated that 2.5 to 4 million illegal immigrants entered in 1990's.
  • In 1996, congress increased the number of guards on the border with Mexico.
  • Immigrants on average pay 32% less tax
  • Over a period of 40 years, the children of immigrants will pay far more to the state in taxes than they will take.
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