population 1

Birth rate - The number of births in a given area for every 1000 people per year.

Death rate - The number of deaths in a given area for every 1000 people per year.

Fertility rate - The average number of children a woman will have during her lifetime.

Replacement ratio - The fertility rate needed to replace the current population so that there's no natural increase or decrease. It varies between countries, but the global FR at replacement ration is 2.33.

Infant mortality rate- The number of babies born each year in a given area that die before they're 1 years old, out of every 1000 live births.

Life expectancy - The average age that a person is expected to live in the area.

Longevity - The increase in life expectancy over a given time. (E.G. in UK there's better healthcare)

• By 1800 there's a very slight increase of population occuring.
• Around 1950 a significant population increase began.
• LEDC's have the most dramatically increasing population.
• Population will continue to increase, the rate at which it does will lower in the near future.
• Population growth predicted to carry on until 2050.

• Population explosion - Rapid population growth.
• Total population change - (Birth rate - death rate) + (Immigrants - emigrants)
• Natural change - The difference between BR & DR. It does NOT take immigration/emigration into account.
• Natural increase - If the BR is HIGHER than the DR.
• Natural decrease - If the BR is lower than the DR.

HIGH BR.

• Cultural or religious views against contraception.
• Larger families for tradition or child labour in LEDC's (child labour or due to high infant mortality)
• If the area has an agriculturally based economy.
• Children viewed as economical asset.
• To increase chances of survival because of high infant mortality rate.

HIGH DR.

• Lack of or poor medical care. (E.G. Kenya)
• Poor water and sewage system  - contaminted.
• Lack of food and other vital resources.
• Poor quality care for the elderly.

LOW/FALLING BR.

• Equal rights and status for women. (Have a say in whether they want children or not)
• Education for women (they go to school etc rather than stay home & have kids)
• Women pursuing careers (Busy working so might not have children or as many as they would)
• Availability of family planning & contraception. (E.G. Marie Stopes, Kenya)
• High quality of healthcare (Lower infant mortality so less children to replace dead ones)
• Expense of raising children (recession)

LOW/FALLING DR.

• Improved food production. (Less people starving)
• Improved vaccination & healthcare schemes. (Reduced spread of disease)
• Healthy living - (Fitness facilities & improved diets)
• Improved water and sanitation schemes. (No contamination)

UK (Stage 4 of DTM)

• BR - 12
• DR - 9
• FR - 1.9
• IMR - 4.5
• Life expectancy - Male 78 yrs. Female 83 yrs.

France (Stage 5 of DTM)

• BR - 13
• DR - 9
• FR - 2.08
• IMR - 3
• Life expectancy - Male 78 yrs. Female 85 yrs.

China (Stage 3 of DTM)

• BR - 13
• DR - 7
• FR - 1.55
• IMR - 15
• Life expectancy - Male 73 yrs. Female 77 yrs.

Kenya (Stage 2 of DTM)

• BR - 30
• DR - 7
• FR - 3.76
• IMR - 42
• Life expectancy. Male 62 yrs. Female 65 yrs.

The demographic transition model: The DTM shows population change overtime. The model studies how BR & DR affect the total population of the country. The DTM is currently separated into 4 stages.

Stage 1 (High stationary/fluctuating)

The BR is very high as many children are needed for work and farming also to look after their family when they reach old age.

Many children die at a young age so often more children are born to replace them (High IMR)

No family planning or contraception available and many relgions believe in large families.

DR are high due to disease, famine, poor health care and lack of medical knowledge also food shortages (starvation)

Slow increase in population.

Stage 2 (Early expanding) E.G. KENYA

BR still high as children are seen as economic asset and family planning is widely unavailable.

DR has fallen rapidly due to improvements in medication and health care. (Marie Stopes clinic in Kenya)

Water supply, hygiene and sanitation are widely improved so less people die.

High BR so rapid increase in population.

Stage 3 (Late expanding) E.G. CHINA.

BR rapidly decreases as less children are dying so less have to be born to replace them for farming and work.

Children are seen more as a burden than an asset due to the increased expense and are no longer needed for work.

DR is still decreasing however less rapidly.

Population is still increasing yet at a slightly slower rate.

Stage 4 (Low fluctuating) E.G. UK.

BR low due to good healthcare, improved status for women and later marriages.

Women are pursuing careers and therefore having fewer children at a later age.

DR are still low due to improving health care (Especially for elderly)

Only a small increase in population.

Stage 5 (Decline) E.G. France.

BR very low due to advanced family planning and availability of contraception.

Children are expensive to raise and more women are pursuing careers so having children at a later age.

DR are still low due to the improved health care.

Slow decrease in population due to the fall in BR.

Advantages.

• The DTM is a useful model for studying population change as we can see the difference countries. It allows us to predict and manage the population and also allows us to group different countries together depending on their stage.

Disadvantages.

• Eurocentric: DTM is based on European countries, assuming that others follow the same pattern. This could make it difficult to manage & predict population change in different parts of World.
• Rapid industrialisation: There's very rapid industrialisation in some LEDC's (NIC's), so for some countries there's a rapid change in stages.
• Migration: DTM does not include migration which some countries rely on for population change. This could cause a country to stay in a stage on the DTM that no longer fits its pattern of BR&DR
• Health care: MEDC's such as the UK spent more time in stage 1 as they have to develop new meds & treatments to reduce the DR enough to move to stage 2. Now that more MEDC's are developed they are able to give LEDC's medicine; this increases the no. of LEDC's in stage 2 & decreases the no. in stage 1.
• Stage 5: There's currently no countries in stage 5 (except those entering e.g. France) so there's no data or patterns to follow. We can only predict.
• Population policies: Population policies can affect the DTM. E.G. China's 1 child policy has rapidly reduced BR, this could affect development of country by increasing or decreasing the population growth.
• AIDS: Some countries have rapid rise in HIV & AIDS so their BR & DR relationship doesn't fit DTM.

Stage 1 (1700 - 1760). BR high due to lack of birth control & family planning. Children needed for work so parents had more than one child due to high IMR. DR were high due to diseases & poor sanitation & hygiene. This had little affect on the population growth as both BR & DR were high.

Stage 2 (1760 - 1880)

• BR remained high but DR fell rapidly due to improved health care, sanitation & hygiene.
• Water supplies improved and the number of hospital & medical staff increased.
• DR start to decrease, the population increases rapidly.

Stage 3 (1880 - 1940)

• BR decreased as family planning & contraception increased.
• Lower IMR so less pressure to have so many children.
• DR continued to decrease due to improvements in health care.
• Despite fall in BR the population continues to increase due to the fact that the BR is still higher than DR.

Stage 4 (1940 - present) BR still higher than DR (despite both being low). In future UK may reach stage 5 as BR continue to decrease.

Stage 1: High BR (wide base) & DR (narrow top). Low life expectancy (narrow top). Concave shape. Rainforest tribes. Youthful pop (15-65 is narrow). High dependency ratio (because youthful pop)

Stage 2: Rapidly falling DR but still high BR (wide base). Kenya. Life expectancy extending (wider top than stage 1). Pyramid shaped. Larger active pop so more people live longer & lower dependency ratio (15-65 is wide). Rapid population growth.

Stage 3: Falling BR & DR still declining. Higher life expectancy (wider top). Larger active pop (15-65 wide&so lower dependency ratio). Larger population. Increasing population. China.

Stage 4: High life expectancy (wide top). Low BR & DR (Knicks in at base). Ageing pop as DR dropped & life expectancy increases. Can be declining but immigration affects overall population. Coffin shaped. E.G. UK.

• Dependency ratio = Dependent pop ÷ active pop x 100
• Dependent population: Those aged 0-15 yrs (young dependents) & 65+ yrs (old dependents)
•  Population structure: The numbers in, and distribution of age, age groups in a population.
•  Active population: Those aged 16-64 yrs. However, many 16/17 yr olds are in full time education and therefore not economically active.

• Large gaps between age groups so high DR. (7.12 deaths per 1000 population)
• Narrow top so short life expectancy of 63.29 yrs & low elderly dependancy ratio
• Elderly dependent = 2.7%. Active pop = 54.9%. Young dependents = 42.4%.
• Dependency ratio of 82, for every 100 workers 82 dependent on them.
• Wider base than middle section so parents must be having multiple kids so high FR (2.76 per woman)
• Wide base so high numbers of young dependents. (BR 30.08 per 1000 population)
• Large gaps between child age groups so high IMR (42.18 deaths per 100 live births)

Issues with population structure.

Kenya has youthful pop; this means that the no. of young people has become too great for the active pop to support financially for a good quality of life. Theis pop structure type is typical of a stage 2 country on DTM. Kenya has such a large young dependent pop because children needed for child labour, war (tradition) and to have a higher chance of having children who will survive till adulthood to continue the family.

Kenya's anti natalist policy.

Introduced in 1967, Kenya's policy involved increased availability & advertisement of contraception & family planning. Training has become more widespread for healthcare workers and social developements have been made, giving better opportunities & Careers for women (children later in life). FR fell from 8 to 3.76 and contraceptive use went from 7% to 39%. This led to a constriction in the spread of HIV. However, National Family Planning Association still receives just $1 per 6 people from the govt & BR still high (30 per 1000 population) First African country to introduce policy as there was too much pressure on food, healthcare, schooling etc. The fall in IMR meant they had population explosion so large youthful pop.

Social issues

High concentration of males in overcrowded cities led to increased crime & violence.

Low numbers of people to complete secondary education.

Economic issues

Economic burden on relatives.

Competition for jobs means that people work below their capacity.

Rising cost of education and healthcare.

Politicial issues

Kenyan govt have enforced an anti natalist policy

Only small working population, govt receives less tax to spend on public services.

Many Kenyan families against the family planning - lead to a large pop also causing probs in rural areas:

• Large families are traditional - Sons were needed to fight wars.
• Historically, children were needed for child labour.
• Not ALL children would have survived into adulthood. This has now changed over the course with decreasing DR.
• More of the children will survive and therefore land plots passed down to families gets smaller as they have to be divided amongst many children. There is often a need to move into urban areas.

Marie Stope family clinics - There's a desperate need for these clinics to promote family planning. Currently, there's 22 but 50 more needed for work to be done effectively. However, it's difficult to get NGO's to help provide funding for contraceptives because many Christian groups object to the use of this money - do not agree with contraception.

A falling/low BR & low DR indicates natural increase will be high and pop is growing rapidly. More people in active population. ( 15-64 is wide) Wider top suuggests longer life expectancy. Higher number of elderly dependents that need to be cared for. (Wider top) Straighter sides suggest fewer deaths in each upward age group (lower DR) Less elderly deaths (Lower IMR)

Reason for introducing one child policy (1979 it was introduced - couple only allowed 1 child. Aim to decrease pop by 1.2 billion by the year 2000): Heading for Malthusian type disaster.Population explosion since 1950's. Pop increase of 55 million each year. Chairman MAO's belief of a "large poulation gives strong nation" during 1950's led to famine - 20 to 40 million died of malnutrition during the Cultural Revolution. The 1st attempt to control pop growth failed in 1970's when the country adopted "later longer fewer" but the pop was still growing as this was voluntary.

Rewards/incentives

• Tax incentives & salary bonuses.
• "Only children" put first in education, buying houses, employment.
• Free contraception.

Fines/punishments

• 10% salary cut & fines of up to 6x annual income
• Water/electricity cut off
• Forced abortions
• Husbands imprisoned
• Escorted to hospital by "grannies"

Exceptions - allowed a 2nd child if...

• First child is disabled
• Part of an ethnic minority
• Live in a remote rural area

To a certain extent it was a success. By 2013 the FR went from 6 to 1.5 while the BR went from 31 to 17 per 1000. Also the annual population growth decreased from 2.4% to 0.9%. Even though all this was achieved they didn't reach their target of 1.2 billion. Current pop is 1.3 billion.

Problems with policy

• Wealthy couples could go to another country and have a second child.
• More males than females.
• Not enough young people for future work force.
• Future smaller active pop.
• Large dependency ratio.
• Only child spoilt "little emperors"
• Policy has been weakened by economic growth.

Pop figures

• Population: 63 million. This has increased by 7 million since 1971.
• BR: 12 per 1000.
• DR: 9 per 1000.
• FR: 1.9.
• Life expectancy: 80 yrs.
• Dependency ratio: 51 (low)

UK has an ageing population; in 2007 the no. of people aged 65+ exceeded those aged under 16 for the first time ever. Currently 16% of the population are estimated to be over 65. This figured is projected to rise to almost 1 in 5 of the population in 2080, and the number of people aged 85+ will be more than double. The percentage of people aged under 16 fell from 25% in 1971 to approx 18% in 2013.

Declining BR.

•  Empowerment of women after WW2 - By 1900's 1/3 of the workface were female, and by 2000 1/2 the workforce were female.
• Increased availability of family planning schemes, e.g. contraception such as pill for free.
• Current recession means couples are not finanically able to raise child.

Declining DR/increasing life expectancy.

• Improved medicine & vaccines. Eg HPV vaccine in 2008, for all girls to prevent cervial cancer.
• Improved quality of care for elderly. Eg Meals On Wheels, Heating allowance etc.
• Increased minimum price of alcohol & bans on smoking in public places & cigarette advertising.
• Introduction of E-Cigs.

Immigration

• Immigration predicted to cause FR to rise due to tradition of large families.
• 7.5% of UK's population were born abroad.
• 1/2 of UK's population growth since 1970 has been due to immigration. If not for immigrants UK's pop would be in natural decrease.

Social

• Strain on health & social services due to a greater number with chronic illnesses.
• Flexibility & experience in workforce.
• Less money spent on leisure facilities for younger pop as it's spent for healthcare.
• Growth in number of volunteer workers.
• Parents having children later in life & expense of nursery fees means that often the burden of child care falls on elderly/grand parents.

Political

• Only certain sectors of economy will boom (e.g. companies providing specialist insurance/travel like Saga & countries providing mobility equipment)
• Goverment addresses needs of the elderly to obtain votes. E.g. heating allowance for over 65 & free bus travel for over 60's.
• Grey voting power (power & influence that elderly people have in influencing govt policy) can mean funds are spent on elderly pop rather tnan on services for active & youthful age groups.
• Tax increased to help pay for healthcare services etc for elderly.

Economic

Demand for housing, e.g. nursing homes so building trade profit.

Creation of jobs in health and social services.

Career stagnation - delayed retirement of senior staff.

Less money available to fund facilities for younger people. e.g. leisure centres.

Declining tax base due to decling active population.

Elderly spend their savings - local multiplier effect in areas where many are ageing. e.g. Seaside resorts such as Blackpool.

Strain on state pension provision

Less money spent on education as more investment needed for healthcare (may decrease active pop in future)

• Migrants pay tax to support elderly
• Larger active pop = economic growth for UK
• Post WW2 = baby boom
• UK has had many baby booms which increases population
• Increase taxes on active population
• Cost of raising a child (declining BR)
• Politicians unwilling to make moves against elderley due to grey voting power
• Migrants settle in UK and have a family, increase BR and active population
• UK has ageing population
• Dependency ratio of 51%
• Elderly = 27%. Youthful = 27% dependent

• Migrants pay tax to support elderly
• Larger active pop = economic growth for UK
• Post WW2 = baby boom
• UK has had many baby booms which increases population
• Increase taxes on active population
• Cost of raising a child (declining BR)
• Politicians unwilling to make moves against elderley due to grey voting power
• Migrants settle in UK and have a family, increase BR and active population
• UK has ageing population
• Dependency ratio of 51%
• Elderly = 27%. Youthful = 27% dependent

France's pro natalist policy.

France is a European MEDC bordering on stage 5 of the DTM. It's current estimated population is 65,821,885 (2011). This number is in decline. However, as France, along with other Western European countries, is experiencing natural decrease due to a low BR (Below 2.1, the replacement value)

Pro natalist policy. A pro natalist policy which aims to encourage more births through the use of incentives. This policy can occur for numerous reasons and is usually used in MEDC's as most developing countries are experiecing masses of natural increase. E.g. of why policy introduced:

• Country has ageing pop - this will lead to a high dependency ratio. Many dependants (0-15 yrs and 65+ yrs) per 1 person in the active pop (16-64), so too much money being spent on supportive services such as education and care services for elderly.
• The FR declined from 1960, when it was 2.73 children per woman, to 1992, when it came down to 1.73. A FR of 1.73 = declining population (natural decrease)

The French Policy

France 1st experienced a pro natalist scheme in 1939, at which 3 main policies were introduced:

• Cash incentives for mothers who stayed at home to care for their children
• Subsidised (financially supported) holidays
• Banning on the sale of contraceptives (this was abolished in 1967)

Current incentives:

• Payment of up to UK £1064 to couples having 3rd child
• Generous maternity grants
• Family allowance to increase the purchasing power of 3 child families
• Maternity leave, on near full pay, ranges from 20 weeks for the 3rd child to 40 or more for a 3rd.
• 100% mortgage and preferntial treatment in the allocation of 3 bedroom council flats
• Full tax benefits to parents until the youngest child reaches 18
• 30% fare reduction on all public transport for 3 child families
• Pension schemes for mothers/housewives

Successes of policy:

• FR increased from 1.73 to 1.98.
• In 2006, more children were born than in any other year.
• France now has the 2nd highest FR in Europe.
• The large amount of children will become a large active population in a few decades, boosting the economy.

Problems with the policy:

• The current baby boom may result in a large dependency ratio when these infants grow old. A lot of money will be needed to support them, having negative effects on the economy.
• More money will have to be spent on education to support the rapidly growing youthful population.

Total population = Natural change +/- net migration

Net migration: Difference between those immigrating into the country and those emigrating away from a country to live in another.

The UK is an example of a country with net migration gain. This is because there's more immigration than emigration. This has an impact on the population structure:

• Total population increases, yet dependency ratio will decrease.
• Proportion of younger active population will increase (especially no. of males)
• BR will increase due to higher FR.

Poland is a country with net migration loss. This is because more people are emigrating than immigrating. The effect it has on the population structure:

• Decline in the population.
• Ageing population (as younger people emigrate)
• Lower BR as there's a decline in the no. of males leaving
• Higher DR due to an increase in the elderly dependents

The UK is experiencing net migration gain due to large numbers of Polish immigrants entering the country. This has impacts, both social & economic on both countries.

• One economic negative impact on Poland is that qualified workers are leaving the country, leaving a shortage of skilled workers (e.g. in Gdansk there's a shortage of firefighters & plumbers). This is known as a brain drain for Poland. The govt will then have to pay lots of money to retain unskilled workers in Poland. So the Polish economy suffers.
• One social negative impact is that there will be a reduction in the youthful active pop, this reduces the number of workers & reduction in the active population.
• The BR will decrease, as youunger Polish males are the ones most likely to migrate to the UK. A decrease BR & increasing elderly pop has led to an ageing pop. This is unsustainable though, as there are fewer working people to support the elderly (dependency ratio will increase)
• One advantage to Poland is that women are given more job oppurtunities.