global population change
Global population has grown exponentially thoughout the last 100 years. althought his rapid increase the future is uncertain.
- the population increases differently in different areas of the world depending on the size of the country.
- different sets of data have proved thta the population is set to incerase even more as it is now but then predictions show thta it will then level pout and possibly decrease.
- indicators such as birth rate and death rate, infant mortality and purchasing power can affect population growth and decrease.
- it is difficult to predict population change and growth because things such as war and other possible natural disasters can affect a particular country and their wealth to afford health care can also affect population.
demographic transition model
DTM - 1=high BR, high DR, NI slow. 2=high BR, rapidly decreasing DR, NI growing exponentially. 3=high but falling BR, slowing decrease in DR, NI is at its largest out of all the stages. 4=low BR low DR NI low. 5=BR dropping lower than DR DR staying the same NI low.
the demographic transition model is a chart showing the birth rate, death rate and the natural increase. it shows and gives examples of each stage and which countries are there and why. it also gives reasons for changes in birth rate and death rate.
case study- somalia
somalia is a very poor developing country that has a very young population. somalias median age is 17.8 years and 65.9% of its population is aged between 15-64. 44.7% of its population is aged between 0-14but only 2.4% of it population is aged 65+.
- NI is -1 per 1000 of the population
- fertility rate 6.2 children
- birth rate 42 per 1000
- infant mortality 103 per 1000 of the population
- death rate 14 per 1000
some of the reasons why somalia has such a young population is that famillies are having lots of children as the infant mortality rate is quite low so that more of the children are likely to survive. also because its a developing country people gdas are going to be lower so they will be poorer ans so will be less likely to afford good medical care and tereatment so are more at risk or disease and illness.
case study - italy
italy is a country that has an older population and is a developed country. compared to somalia or another developing country, italy has a better health care system and people and famillies have more money and so dont need as many children meaning that the birth rates are going to be lower. also italy has a very low death rate as it has a life expectancy of 81 and a birth rate of 9 children per 1000 of the population. ths means that italy will have a growing agein population as not many children are being born and even less children are being born as adults are dying.
- has a total population of around 10 million
- the net migration is -11.62 per 1000 of the population
- infant mortalilty rate is 103 per 1000 of the population
- population growth rate is very low at 1.59%
some of the reasons why italy has such a large ageing population is because it is a favourited migration destination for retired people as it is a lovely country that is quite cheap in places but perhaps nicer that where they were before. this can be bad for italy as it can leave a lot of money being needed for pensions and taxes and other things that the retired will require but not enough economically active people to pay or work for it. the italian government may need to introuduce a policy in the future controlling how many retired people theycan have in the country and how many economically active people they have in the country.
managing population and population control
some countries manage their population because there might be issues related to overcrowdedness and overpopulation. overpopulation can be a very serious problem as it can cause things like poverty and famine, increase in crime rate and conflict. it can also mean a strain on resources and housing so people will not get enough food and people will become homeless.
for example the china case study is used becase it is a country with a hugely vast and still growing population but they introduced an anti natalist policy which means that every chinese family can only have 1 child per household. there are some advantages and disadvantages to anti natalist policys as it just be very unethical and wrong in some peoples opinions. others beleive that it is the right thing to do and should be enforced in a way that no one family will have more than one child. some advantages are that it is a secure way to mean the population of that country will decrease and will not continue to grow a such as high rate. bt this can be a disadvantage because in chinas case if they continue it fortoo much longer they will have a very ageing population and might have to introduce a natalist policy to encourafe people to have more children. another diadvantage is that the policy has been very strictl enforced and people ahve been made to have abortions and at very late stages or pregnancy and this can be very distressing for famillies and parents. there is also a lot of fraudery in the enforcing side of things as officials can take advantage of the situation and be unloyal or unjust or unfair towards the parents of perhaps the second child.