- Formed over geological time from partly decayed remains of plants & animals
- Coal, oil & natural gas (all finite & become exhausted; non-renewable)
- During combustion they produce carbon dioxide - contributes to greenhosue effect
- Exploiting fossil fuels by quarrying, mining & pumping also results in deforestation & disruption of water tables & groundwater supplies
- Coal: releases large amounts of carbon dioxide & other pollutants. CCS for removing carbon dioxide from atmosphere is unproven & complex
- Crude oil: concerns that global supplies have reached their peak & releases carbon dioxide when burnt
- Solar energy: Distribution & availability varies spatially & temporarally. Photovoltaic technology still expensive compared with fossil fuels.
- Ocean energy: Only certain locations are suitable for offshore tidal generation. Technology for large-scale generation is unproven. Sources have low energy densities & large devices are needed to harness energy.
- Wind energy: Only certain locations have enough wind to be viable. Wind energy is variable power, so it is difficult to manage power supply through a grid system without some backup.
- Biomass: Relatively low energy densities mean limited potential for large-scale electricity generation. Biomass acts as a carbon sink, so combustion releases stored carbon dioxide.
- Hydrological energy (HEP): Large-scale systems are costly to build. Dam-building also has social, political & environmental impacts. Smaller micro-hydro plants may not be economically viable.
- Geothermal energy: Geothermal heat in the outer 10 km of the Earth's crust is too diffused to be exploitable worldwide. Availability is limited to a few locatins e.g. Iceland & the Philippines.
Moving to Modern Energy Use
As poor families in developing countries increase their incomes, they can afford more modern appliances; demand for more & better energy supplies is the result. The 3 main factors that control the transition from traditional to modern energy use are:
- Energy availability: In many parts of the world modern types of energy are either not available, or remain inaccessible due to lack of necessary infrastructure
- Energy affordability: Even when modern forms of energy are available, households may not use them if they are a lot more expensive than traditional sources such as burning wood or animal dung (biomass).
- Cultural preferences: Tradition often slows the adoption of more modern energy sources.
(Energy consumption will be influenced by the prevailing climate; heating in cold climates & air conditioning in hot climates)
Global Availability of Energy Resources
Unevenly distributed. The global distribution depends on geology, physical geography, available technology & costs of exploitation.
Oil - regions with the richest reserves: Middle east & Africa
Gas - regions with richest reserves: Middle east, Europe & Eurasia
Coal - regions with richest reserves: North America, Pacific, Europe & Eurasia
Nuclear - regions with highest consumption: Europe & Eurasia, North America
HEP - regions with highest consumption: Europe & Eurasia, North America
Local variations: The highest potential solar input occurs towards the equator, but is also influenced by cloud cover.
Sources of Demand & Rising Consumption
- Transport takes nearly half of the world's oil production
- Homes & commercial properties use less than a third of global oil
- Over two-thirds of coal production is used to generate electricity in thermal power stations
- Hydro power & nuclear power used entirely for electricity generation
- Biomass is used mainly for residential or commercial buildings
During the twentieth century, energy demand increased tenfold. China & India are expected to have the largest rises in energy demand in the near future, while countries in western Europe may actually reduce their demands due to improved energy efficiency & rising energy costs.
Energy Security - Risks & Measuring Energy Securit
Physical: e.g. exhaustion or disruption of supply lines by natural hazards
Environmental: e.g. protests about environmental damage caused by exploitation of energy resources
Economic: e.g. sudden rises in cost of energy, or exhaustion of domestic supplies forcing increased imports of higher-priced energy
Geopolitical: e.g. political instability in energy-producing regions, disputes or conflict over sovereignty (ownership) of resources, or disputes over energy transmission by pipelines or cables across countries
Energy security is complex but of great concern so attempts have been made to measure it. The energy security index (ESI) is one attempt - it assesses the extent to which a country may look forward to reliable & affordable supply of energy & what their risk is that a supply might be threatened. The higher the index, the lower the risk & therefore greater energy security. Calculation of the degree of risk is based on info about:
Availability: The amount of longevity of each country's domestic oil & gas supplies & its level of reliance on imported oil, gas & electricity.
Diversity: The range of energy sources used in meeting each country's energy demand.
In physical terms, the pathways take the form of gas & oil pipelines, the sea routes of tankers carrying oil & gas, & electricity power lines.
Since the early 1990s, there has been a significant incr. in the export of fuels, particularly from the middle east, Africa & the former Soviet Union. Europe, Asia & the Asia-Pacific region are now heavily reliant on energy imports.
In the case of oil, there is a complex global pattern of pathways & players. The middle east exports around 15,000 barrels per day, mainly to Japan, Europe & China. Substantial amounts flow from Africa, Europe, Canada & South & central America to the USA. Russia supplies some some oil to China, but the bulk of its exports now head in the direction of Europe.
Gas pathways are different in that they tend to be localised & regional rather than global. This is because natural gas has traditionally been transported via pipelines, whereas oil mainly shipped. It is likely that, as delivery via pipelines becomes less dependable for political reasons, there will be a switch towards shipping gas in tankers as liquefied natural gas (LNG) - already starting to happen. One of the most significant gas pathways is the trans-Siberian pipeline, the main conveyor of Russian natural gas exports. The Russian section of this pipeline is operated by Gazprom, but its monopoly is being challenged by a new pipeline. (Case study)
Global Energy Uncertainty
- Scale of global population growth
- Impact of rising living standards
- Size of undiscovered oil & gas reserves
- Discovery of new energy technologies
- The scale of the possible switch to renewable energies
- Possible contribution of 'unconventional' oil sources
- Emergent economies' energy demands
- Future performance of global economy
Responses to Increasing Energy Demands
1. Business as usual; if we do nothing, forecasts suggest that between now & 2030:
- Global primary energy demand will rise by 53%, leading to a 55% incr. in global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions & fossil fuels will remain the dominant source of energy worldwide
- As the demand for electricity rises, emissions from electricity generation will account for 44% of global energy-related emissions by 2030
- Coal will provide the largest incremental source of power generation, with the majority of this incr. likely to be in China (55%)
- Over 70% of the incr. in global primary energy demand will come from developing countries, reflecting rapid economic & population growth
2. Multi-energy solution; involves meeting future energy needs from a mix of renewable, recyclable & non-renewable sources. A rich fuel mix is necessary to ensure energy security & maintain an affordable supply for both individuals & industry.
3. Energy conservation; decreasing amount of energy used. Countries have targets to reduce their carbon emissions & cut their energy requirements by increasing the efficiency with which energy is used. Been high on political agenda of EU in recent years.
Meeting Future Energy Needs
The International Energy Authority (IEA) estimates that $22 trillion of new investment will be needed by 2030. There is also the global challenge of climate change & the need to develop cleaner sources of energy in order to improve, or at the very least, not worsen, the health of our environment. 2 ways:
- by applying various 'carrot & stick' measures such as emissions controls, carbon trading & green taxation to encourage a reduction in energy consumption & an incr. in energy efficiency
- by developing new & radical technologies that are sustainable & bring energy security
STICK & CARROT
Emissions controls: The Kyoto Protocol 1997 proposed emissions controls at the international level for the first time, with the aim of reducing greenhouse gas emissions in an effort to prevent human-induced climate change. It came into force in 2005, & by May 2008 it had been ratified by 182 countries. Of these, 36 developed countries are required to achieve specific reductions in their greenhouse emissions, amounting to an average of 5% against 1990 levels over the 5yr period 2008-2012. Other signatories incl. the rapidly industrialising countries of Brazil, China & India, but they have no obligation beyond monitoring & reporting emissions. The refusal of the world's 2nd largest greenhouse gas emitter, the USA, to ratify the agreement substantially weakened the effect of the protocol.
Emissions trading: an arrangement allowing countries that have made greater reductions in their carbon emissions than set out in the Kyoto Protocol to sell their surplus savings to countries that are over their targets - created a new commodity in the form of emission reductions/ removals. 'Carbon market'.
Meeting Future Energy Needs (2)
Green taxes: In some countries taxation measures, 'green taxes', have been introduced with the aim of cutting the use of natural resources & encouraging waste recycling. In the UK these incl. new vehicle excise duties (VED) that tax vehicles according to their level of carbon dioxide emissions. Owners of so-called 'gas-guzzlers' pay more, as do those with older, less fuel-efficient vehicles. Also raising duty on petrol & diesel & raising air passenger duty on flights out of the UK.
RADICAL NEW TECHNOLOGIES
Offshore wind turbines: building these costs at least 50% more than on land, but wind speeds at sea are generally double those on land, so offshore wind turbines can generate more electricity. The fact that offshore turbines are less visible & audible than onshore wind farms is an argument in their favour in terms of public opposition. However, UK plans to meet up to one-third of future energy needs with offshore wind farms have led to objections form the Ministry of Defence on the grounds that they could interfere with radar & pose a threat to national security. Horns Rev (north Sea off Denmark) is one of the world's largest offshore wind farms - 80 turbines.
Carbon storage: whatever the future global energy mix, coal is unlikely to go away. On a world scale, it's cheaper, abundant & can often be locally sourced - an attractive commodity. China has accounted for over 60% of the global growth in coal consumption since 1997. Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) potentially allows 'clean coal' electricity.
Meeting Future Energy Needs (3)
Geothermal energy: in the Philippines, 25% of electricity supply is generated from underground heat. This renewable geothermal heat is free, inexaustible & available day & night, due to local geology. The heat is used to turn water into steam, which generates electricity in turbines. Geothermal energy has advantages over other renewables: no need to cover large areas of land with wind turbines/ photovoltaic arrays, plus many of parts of the world, (USA, Iceland) have the 'hot rocks' that make recoverable heat possible. However, extracting subterranean heat isn't easy; in many locations the heat is too deep to be extracted economically, & the local geology can create problems e.g. the impermeable nature of granite & other igneous rocks makes it technically difficult & costly to extract the heat using water.
Biofuels: At a time of glowing global demand for food & concerns about food security, growing crops for use as biofuels is controversial. 3 main types: crops (e.g. grasses, maize & sugar cane), trees & algae. Grasses & trees need a lot of processing, but the whole of their biomass is converted into fuel - mostly ethanol. Aquatic algae are trickier to grow, but produce oil that requires less refining before it becomes useful as biodiesel. Challenges: new crops need to be developed, tailored specifically for fuel rather than food production. The supply chain for biofuels can be costly, making them uncompetitive with fossil fuels. Competition between food crops & biofuel crops for agriculture space - food shortages/ riots.
Offshore wind farms, CCS & geothermal energy all seem to promise a high degree of sustainability but much remains to be done to make them economically viable. Biofuels is the most feasible of the 4 radical technologies, but its sustainability is questionable in terms of human wellbeing & environmental impacts.
Energy Poverty in 2 Different Worlds
Worldwide, around 2 billion people don't have access to a modern energy supply; either in an area without supply network or can't afford the electricity that is available. Alleviating this energy poverty is a kew factor of meeting most of the UN's Millennium Development Goals.
India is fast becoming one of the world's largest energy consumers, but only a small % of the population have access to clean, efficient energy systems; particularly the case in rural areas where around 70% of the population live (most people here burn hand-gathered soild fuels such as wood & dung for indoor cooking) - this way of producing energy creates a smaller carbon footprint but is known to cause serious health problems.
Energy poverty in the UK takes a different form; there are around 5 million rural households not connected to the mains gas network. Most of these people rely on LPG for their heating & cooking but in recent yrs this has been considerably more expensive than mains gas. Using oil for domestic heating is an alternative but can be expensive, prices have risen significantly in recent yrs. The winter heating allowance paid to pensioners by the government each year is official recognition that energy poverty exists in the UK, if only among old people.
UK Energy Security
The energy security of the UK has become a major political issue. In the 1980s & 90s gas & oil from the North Sea meant tat the UK was virtually self-sufficient in energy. Now North Sea production has started to decline & the UK became a net importer of gas in 2004. By 2020 gas imports could account for 80-90% of total demand. But does this reliance on imported energy translate into an energy security problem? Not necessarily. Coal, for example, currently accounts for 15% of the UK's primary energy supply & most of it is imported. This does not raise security concerns however because coal is widely available from reliable sources at competitive prices. The UK still has workable reserves of coal. It could also offset energy security concerns by increasing the use of coal to generate electricity however such change would incr. the UK's carbon emissions, which it has committed to reduce. The UK relies not just on coal but also on a mixture of oil, gas & other forms of power. The UK needs to minimise risks such as disrupted supplies & escalating prices.
Share of UK primary energy supply: OIL (35%), GAS (38%) & COAL (15%)
Turning Oil-shale & Sands into Oil
- Oil-sands are thick slurry composed of sand, water & a hydrocarbon tar called bitumen. Oil-shale is a sedimentary rock containing oil. Deposits of shale & oil sands have been known about for a long time, but until now have not been developed. However, oil-price rises & technological advances have now made their working feasible. Oil-sands can be refined into something similar to the petroleum being pumped out of the Saudi Arabian desert but it's only viable when the price of oil is about $50 a barrel.
- Geologists estimate that oil-sands in the province of Alberta contain up to 2.5 trillion barrels of oil (more than Saudi's reserves). A few hundred billion of these barrels are reckoned to be recoverable using current technology. Oil-shale buried deep in the western USA is estimated to contain 2 trillion barrels of oil.
- Environmentalists see the exploitation of oil-shale & sands as a disaster in the making. The oil in the shale is not easily separated out, & the immense amount of heat required to do this is usually generated by burning natural gas - huge carbon footprint - using one fuel to create another?!?! The process also uses huge amounts of water: one study found that every barrel of oil produced required up to 4 barrels of water (during process, water becomes polluted - when returned to drainage system, it damages ecosystems & ground-water supplies). There is also the problem of disposing the shale once the oil has been extracted.
OPEC (The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Coun
12 members: Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Libya, Algeria, Nigeria, Angola, Venezuela & Ecuador.
To protect the interests of member countries
To stabilise oil prices & eliminate harmful & unnecessary price fluctuations
To ensure an efficient, economic & regular supply of oil to consuming nations
Many who doubt whether OPEC has achieved more than 1st of its aims. Been accused of holding back production in order to drive up oil prices. OPEC's influence now weaker than in previous decades... some significant oil producers decided not to join organisation (Russia, Norway, Mexico & the USA) - even so, OPEC holds two-thirds of world's oil reserves & in 2008, accounted for 36% of world's oil production. Still a powerful player.
Nuclear Power - Second Chance?
Attitudes to nuclear shifting due to climate change & fears over security of fossil fuel supplies. China & India building several reactors; intend to incr. their nuclear generating capacity in next 15yrs. Now government support for new generation of nuclear power plants in UK.
By 2008, 439 nuclear reactors in 31 countries were supplying 15% of the world's electricity.
Big advantage of nuclear: does not produce greenhouse gas emissions, uranium relatively cheap/ easy to mine & most commentators believe reserves are plentiful (will last up to 150yrs), plus cost-effective to transport uranium as it is used in small quantities.
Problems: 1986 Chernobyl incident - Modern power stations designed to be safe using 'passive safety' systems that operate automatically - but while new designs are safer, they still generate toxic waste in the form of radioactive materials, which have to be transported & stored - they're difficult to mange, politically as well as technically. Nuclear plants are also expensive & can cost several billion pounds to design/ build.
Wind generation produces about 1% of the global electricity supply.
Large scale wind farms are connected to electricity grids, while individual turbines can provide electricity in isolated locations.
Wind energy in plentiful, renewable, widely distributed & clean - can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by replacing fossil fuels as a source of electricity.
Fluctuations in wind speeds seldom create problems when wind power is used to supply a low proportion of total demand.
Wind farms have met with local opposition (NIMBYISM). Some believe they are unsightly, make a droning noise & pose danger to birds.
Claimed that much of UK would be covered in wind farms if they were to completely replace fossil fuels as generators of electricity.
India & China compete over Energy
India's need for energy has grown in the last decade owing to high economic growth rates, lack of energy-efficient technologies, reliance on heavy industry, & widespread cases of power being stole from the system. Power shortages & blackouts have been a problem in India's major cities & undermine the confidence of investors & foreign companies operating in the country. Growing car ownership as added to India's need for oil. Oil imports account for two-thirds of India's oil consumption, but only one-third of China's. Moreover, China's proven oil reserves stand at 18 billion, compared with just 5 billion barrels in India. The Indian-owned Oil & Natural Gas Company (ONGC) invested $3.5 billion in overseas exploration between 2000 & 2005, while the Chinese owned China National Petroleum Corporation (CNCP) made overseas investments estimated at $40 billion. Indian policy-makers have come up with numerous policies to address the country's growing energy needs. In the short to medium turn, India will have to rely increasingly on imported oil & gas. As a result, it is stepping up energy diplomacy with states in south Asia, as well as in central Asia, the middle east, Latin America & Africa. India's quest for energy security is impeded by its sometimes tense relations with energy suppliers. India & China have for centuries competed for leadership in Asia, & the need for energy security has raised the possibility of further competition & confrontation in the energy sphere.
The energy 'mix' a country chooses results from a number of factors:
Physical - the availability of North Sea natural gas contributed to a 'dash for gas' in early 1990s.
Public perception - In the 1950s & 60s, nuclear power was perceived as a positive technology, but after the Chernobyl disaster of 1986, the public turned against it.
Politics - nuclear power is back on the agenda due to fears over the politics of gas supply from Russia.
Technology - efficiency of solar panels increased from 5% energy conversion to 40% between 1970 & 2008, increasing its viability.
Economics - wind power is becoming competitive with fossil fuels. In the USA the installed cost is around $55 per MWh, almost the same as coal & gas.
Environment - concerns over global warming have led to a move towards renewable sources. UK wind generating capacity increased from under 500 MW in 2001 to over 3,000 MW by 2008.
Global Energy Supply Players
Oil is the most widely used fuel for energy generation. Despite search for new reserves, middle east remains biggest player with huge outputs & immense reserves. Saudi Arabia alone counts for 22% of world's proven reserves. Oil gives middle east great power on the geopolitical stage.
Other non-renewable energy resources have similarly uneven patterns e.g. China has great coal reserves & builds equivalent of 2 coal-fired power stations per week. The country's coal consumption has more than double since 1900, but increasing use of coal comes at environmental cost. China's carbon dioxide emissions now exceed those of the USA.
- National Governments
- Pressure Groups/ Environmentalists
- Local governments
- OPEC (price setting cartel)
- International Organisations
- Energy TNCs (BP, Shevron etc.)
- Scientists, R&D (techno fix)
The 'peak oil' problem
Demand is less of a concern than supply - oil & gas are flexible & 'clean' fuels compared with coal - coal reserves will last for 150-200 yrs at current use rates but coal is less energy dense than oil & gas, more costly to transport & much more polluting - concerns that oil & gas supplies will peak in the near future.
The timing of peak oil is disputed:
- In 2008, the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas put the date at 2010
- In 2007, the German Energy Watch Group claimed the peak was reached in 2006
- Some predict it won't occur for a few more decades. (2025-2030)
USA Energy Security
- USA is energy hungry - heavily reliant on oil for every sector of economy - any price rise threatens its economy by making everything more expensive - the fact that the USA obtains most of its oil from overseas (particularism from Middle East) also threatens its energy security
- In 2007, the USA consumed 23.8% of global oil supplies!
- 1960 to 2003, the USA's reliance on imported gas & oil increased 18% to 58%
- The terrorist attack on the World Trade Centre (9/11) & its link to Middle East heightened tensions over USA's dependence for its main energy sources
- 2008 oil price shocks - $147 per barrel!
Micro-hydro - Kenya
96% of Kenyans have no access to grid electricity. In rural homes, families spend at least 1/3 if their income on kerosene for lighting & diesel for milling grain. Women spend hours collecting wood & dung for cooking.
Mbuiru village is a typical Kenyan village. The Tungu-Kabri Micro-hydro Power Project (funded by UN Development Programme) harnesses the energy of falling water to create electricity. The project is cheap, sustainable & small-scale. It generates enough electricity to benefit about 1000 people, providing light, saving time, & allowing people to run small businesses.
China's Energy Hunger
- Since early 1980s China has undergone massive economic changes, its economy has doubled in size every 8yrs
- Now has the largest sustained GDP growth in history, no longer considered a low-income country
- In 2001, China accounted for 10% of global energy demand, reached 15% by 2007
- China is now the world's 2nd largest energy consumer - set to become world's leading source of greenhosue gas emissions
- However, China's per capita energy demand remains relatively small due to its huge population - in 2005, China consumed less than 7 millions barrels of oil per day, a third of the USA
- China controls just 3% of world's oil reserves - was self-sufficient until 1993, but since then has needed to import oil to fuel its rapid economic growth
- China's rate of urbanisation is huge! Rural-to-urban migration is the highest ever recorded, 8.5 million people a year. 45 million Chinese are expected to move to cities by 2012, & most will head for the industrial centres by the coast, where energy consumption is significantly higher than rural areas.
- China's roads used to be filled with bicycles, now battle with cars. Car ownership is expected to jump from 16 cars per 1000 people in 2002 to 267 cars per 1000 by 2030. The anticipated incr. should account for 25% of the global demand for cars by 2030. By 2020, China is expected to have 140 million private cars on the road (more than the USA!).
China's Energy Hunger (2)
Where does China's electricity come from?
China is the world's biggest producer & consumer of coal - relies on it for 70% of its electricity generation
China's huge demand for electricity means its building an average of 2 coal-fired power stations/ week
China needs to build new, cleaner, coal-fired power stations.
Hydro-electricity (HEP) accounts for 16% of China's energy production, & major HEP projects are part of China's long-term energy strategy.
On the river Yangtze is the Three Gorges Dam - has the world's biggest turbines deep inside the world's largest dam - will generate 25 gigawatts of electricity at maximum output. But only the start... China wants to build HEP dams on all of its major rivers, which has caused concerns with environmental groups & neighbouring countries - the disastrous earthquake in Sichuan province, in May 2008, damaged a no. of large dams leaving many dangerously close to collapsing & calling question to China's 'big dam' policy.
Production at China's largest oil fields has now peaked, & exploration has begun for new fields in the far west & offshore. Problems: large oil deposits in the Tarim Basin in the far west have failed to attract investment due to their remote location & difficult geology. Plus, deepwater exploration in the South China Sea is affected by the danger of territorial disputes with neighbouring countries like Vietnam & the Philippines. China having to import more & more of its oil.
GAZPROM - Russia
Gazprom has rapidly become one of the world's most powerful companies. Based in Moscow, it is the world's largest gas supply company. Gazprom:
- Controls about one third of the world's gas reserves
- Accounts for 92% of Russia's gas production
- Provides 25% of the EU's natural gas - Over 80% of gas exports to Western Europe cross the Ukraine (transit state)
- Is the world's 3rd largest corporation. Gazprom's annual earnings in 2006 were £31.55 billion
- Employed 432,000 people in 2006
The Impacts of Energy Insecurity
- Price & payment disputes (OPEC)
- Piracy e.g. off the Somali coast (120 piracy incidents in just the last yr)
- Terrorism/ conflict closing choke points
- Political discord between supplier & consumer (Geopolitics; OPEC countries anti-USA)
- Diversion of supply, perhaps for a higher price
- Technical interruption to production
- Producer's supply simply runs out (peak oil)
- Natural disasters e.g. hurricane Katrina
Why everyone wants a slice of the Arctic...
The United States Geological Survey estimates that the Arctic Region contains 25% of the world's unexploited oil & gas reserves on a scale that could match Saudi Arabia's reserves. As China & India demand more & more oil to fuel their rapid economic development, the price per barrel has spiralled upwards. Oil experts say that oil prices of around $70 per barrel make drilling in the Arctic viable - in 2007, prices reached nearly $100, soaring to $147 in mid-2008. Russia is therefore keen to stake its claim to as big a slice of the Arctic's reserves as possible. However, Russia is not alone... 8 countries form part of the Arctic Region & many have their eyes set on the vast energy & mineral deposits located there.
Environmental groups feel that oil companies have already wreaked havoc on large parts of Alaska & Siberia, & they should keep out of the Arctic.
DISRUPTING ENERGY SUPPLIES: Russia & Europe
¢Russia and Ukraine Gas Dispute
- In November / December 2004, Ukraine’s government changed.
- This government had pro-Western policies as opposed to pro-Russian policies.
- As a result, Russia quadrupled the price of its gas to Ukraine and the government of Ukraine refused to pay.
- Gazprom (51% owned by Russian government) cut of the gas to Ukraine. ¢
Europe’s dependency on Russia
- Russia supplies a large proportion of Europe’s gas, and most of this is piped through Ukraine.
- When Gazprom stopped supplying gas to Ukraine, the flow of gas to the rest of Europe fell by 40% in some areas
- Countries that rely on Russian gas could suffer economically if gas is cut.