Election 2019

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Election 2019

  • Looks like a landmark election result along the lines of 1979 and 1997
  • The Conservayives despite the unpopularity of Boris Johnson get close to a landslide
  • The key factors seem to have been the leadership of Corbyn and Brexit
  • Labour lost the election rather then Conservatives winning it
  • 19% of remainers voted Conservative, 74% of leavers voted Labour
  • 43% of new Conservatives cited Corbyn, 17% Brexit as a reason for their electoral switch
  • All of the social categories had a Conservative lead, with the biggest gap being in the C2s
  • Age continued to be a highly significant factor, but the youth vote for Labour declined since 2017
  • There is a clear geographical divide, with London operating outside of the rest. London has become the Labour base, although its vote even there went down
  • Overall Labour kept 79% of its 2017 vote
  • Clearly there has been an enormous amount of partisan dealignment with working class voters turning Conservative. This has not therefore been preceded by class dealignment
  • The Times: Labour has become the preserve of the better off and well educated. Labour has a 43 to 29 lead among university graduates. In 2015 the lead was only 1
  • The transition age for voting Conservative is now 39, down from 47 in 2017
  • The conservative advantage among women ended in 1997 and has been reversed
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Factors in Labour defeat

  • Corbyn Leadership was disastrous in terms of charisma and credibility. He was perceived as incompetent and unpatriotic. Campaigners on the doorstep reported him to be toxic
  • Corbyn's Campaign was ineffective and poorly managed. There was no clear message
  • Manifesto. This was seen as lacking credibility, offering too much without providing an explanation of how this would be delivered. 
  • Brexit played against Labour because of a widespread desire to see the issue settled in the Boris deal. Labour's Brexit policy seemed muddled and indecisive
  • The Tabloid Press was particular hostile, and this had an impact despite declining newspaper sales
  • Johnson's Charisma and simple message to Get Brexit Done had vibrancy
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