Demographic Transition Model

In detail the different stages of the demographic transition model

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Stage 1 - High Stationary

  • Pre-industrialised society with nearly similar birth and death rates, meaning there is little population growth
  • changes are rapid due to high birth and death rates
  • rates are high due to little birth control
  • high birth rate because need children to work on land for money
  • high birth rate because some people have very strong religious beliefs on big families
  • high infant mortality rates therefore parents have more children in hope that they will survive to help support the family but the mothers often die in childbirth
  • high death rates because of disease, famine, poor diet and hygiene
  • because the natural increase is small, the population remains small
  • stage is “high stationary” because the high birth and death rates leave little room for the population to expand or contract
  • thus leaving it in stationary position of high factors (high death rate, birth rate and infant mortality rate) 
  • population growth rate is 0
  • life expectancy is low, so population is mainly made up of young people

EXAMPLE: Amazon Tribes

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Stage 2 - Early Expanding

  • birth rate is high due to no contraception
  • economy is based on agriculture so people have lots of children to work on farms
  • death rate falls due to improved healthcare & medicine and diet
  • improvement in sanitation and water supply
  • quality and quanitity of food has increased
  • transport and communications have increased - movement of medicines and food supplies
  • infant mortality rate has decreased
  • population growth rate is very high - high natural increase as less people are dying
  • changes in total population are static as the death rate dramatically drops and the birth rate is high but slightly on the decrease
  • life expetancy has increased but there are still more young people than old
  • this stage is urbanising or early expanding because the country is starting to provide more modern facilities and the population is increasing

EXAMPLE: Bangladesh, Nigeria, Egypt, Kenya

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Stage 3 - Late Expanding

  • birth rate rapidly decreasing as women have a more equal place in society and better education
  • equality for women means they are able to follow a career path rather than feeling obliged to start a family 
  • use of contraception has increased and more women work instead of having children
  • natural increase decreases, so total population change becomes steady
  • economy changes to manufacturing rather than agriculture, so fewer children are needed to work on farms
  • industrialisation and mechanism means fewer labourers are required and general wealth of country is increasing
  • desire for materialistic possessions overtakes desire for big family as wealth increases
  • death rate falls due to more medical advances
  • lower infant mortality rate means there's less need to have a bigger family
  • population growth rate is high but not as high as before
  • population structure - more people are living to be older, life expetancy has increased
  • towards the end of stage 3 the death rate slowly begins to increase as the birth rate falls below it and the population consists mainly of the elderly this when a country enters tage 4 and 5. Stage 3 the country becomes more mature and stable than before, with modern technology and industrialisation EXAMPLE: Brazil, India
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Stage 4 - Low Stationary

  • birth rate and death rates are low, fluctuating with baby booms and epidemics of illnesses and disease - resulting in a very steady population 
  • people's wealth improves and they want more possessions meaning less money is available for having children
  • population growth rate is 0
  • infant mortality is very low
  • country has settles into the post industrialisation stage
  • more time is spent improving the country rather than building it up
  • natural increase is very low which can be good when thhe populaiton in the country is high
  • life exptancy is high so even more pepole are living to be older
  • towards the end of stage 4, it becomes a natural decrease as hardly any couples are having children and the popualtion begins to age
  • birth and death rates are about the same so the population total stays the same
  • if death rate goes below the birth rate, and there is no net migration, the total population can begin to fall


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Stage 5 - Decline

  • birth rate is slowly falling so there's less money available to raise children because poeple have dependant elderly relatives
  • death rate is low and fluctuating
  • population growth is negative
  • there are more older people than young people
  • total population will eventually begin to decrease quite statically because the birth rate will continue to lessen further below the death rate increasing the natural decrease
  • fewer couples want to have children and instead focus on their careers and many couples are incapable of having children of their own
  • is the pattern of countries all landing into stage 5 remains keeps going, the total population of countries could rapidly decrease
  • not originally thought of as part of the DTM but some countries are reaching the stage where total population is declinig where birth rates have dropped below death rates 

EXAMPLE: Italy, Japan, Germany

Germany has had to take in foregin workers to fill the jobs. Uk's populaion is expected to reach this stage at 2021

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