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Geography AS
World At Risk…read more

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Dregg's Model
The disaster risk equation - · The capacity to cope depends on
DR = H x V the `3P's'. These are
C preparedness, prediction and
Disaster Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability
Capacity to Cope Preparedness ­ Emergency
services, earthquake drills,
· The vulnerability depends on the media
population ­ how large the
population is, poverty, Prevention ­earthquake proof
urbanisation, and the geological buildings, early warning systems
location (floodplain, unstable
slopes, coast, plate boundary).
· The world is becoming a riskier Prediction ­ technology,
place because hazard events are seismographs, lasers (to detect
increasingly frequent, of a high movement).
magnitude and the population is
growing. Therefore, vulnerability is · MEDC's are less likely to have
increasing. fatalities because they will have
the 3P's ­ LEDC's won't.…read more

Slide 3

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Dregg's Model (2)
High Winds
Physical environment:
·Dangerous Locations
·Unprotected buildings
Socioeconomic environment:
·Weak local economy (poverty) Disaster Hazard
·Lack of disaster preparedness Vulnerability Event Landslides
·Prevalence of hunger and
endemic disease Tsunamis
Local scale:
Volcanic Eruptions
·Lack of training, skills, food
security, ethical standards
Earthquakes and
Macro scale secondary
·Rapid population change and pests landslides
·Limited access to power,
·Rapid urbanisation structures and resources, i.
·Debt repayment issues e poverty The more vulnerable the
·Over exploitation if ·Failing political, social and population, the higher
resources/deforestation economic systems the risk for disaster.…read more

Slide 4

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Dregg's Model (3)
Hazards Increasing- Increasing Vulnerability Decreasing Capacity to Cope
· The unsustainable · Hazards only become · Vulnerable communities
use of fossil fuels is disaster when people get need skills, tools and
warming the planet in the way (exposure) money to cope with the
effects of climate change.
· The resulting · Unsustainable
change in climate is development involves · Debt repayments,
increasing the poor land use (e.g. inequitable trade
frequency and bulding on floodplains, arrangements, selective
severity of weather- unstable slopes, lowland foreign investment and the
related hazards (e. coasts) and redirection of aid funds
g. floods, droughts, environmental towards geostrategic
wind-storms) and degradation (e.g. regions mean that the
expanding the bleaching of coral reefs, poorest and most
range of disease destruction of coastal vulnerable communities
vectors. mangroves, deforestation lack the resources to cope.
of water catchments), · Migration of millions from
which are increasing rural to urban areas in the
vulnerability by putting hope of finding work and
millions more in harm's avoiding disaster is
way. undermining traditional
coping strategies.
Increasing risk for many of the World's people, especially LDC's…read more

Slide 5

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Hazard Risks
Hazard Geophysical or Frequency Deaths 1980-
Hydro- 2000
Flooding HM Very rapid increase 170,000
Drought HM Very rapid increase 563,701
Earthquakes GP Stable Trend 158,551
Tropical storms HM Increase 251,384
Landslides GP Increase 18,200
Volcanic Eruptions GP Stable trend 25,050
Mega Tsunamis GP Stable Trend 3,000…read more

Slide 6

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Tectonic Hazards: Earthquakes
The crust of the Earth is mobile so there is a slow build up of stress within the rocks.
When this pressure is suddenly released, parts of the surface experience an intense
shaking motion the usually lasts for a few seconds. The location of the earthquake is
called the focus and the point immediately above the focus on the land surface is
called the epicentre.
There are three different types of plate
margins. These are...…read more

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