Probability and Risk
- Created by: Holly
- Created on: 24-10-13 18:33
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- Probability and Risk
- What is risk?
- 'The probability of occurrence of some unwanted event or outcome'
- Used to multiply the likelihood by the severity to give a risk rating
- Working out probabilities
- Risk probability has a time period
- Fraction, can be turned into a percentage
- e.g: In a class, 6 pupils out of 30 got headlice in a year, so 1 in 5 or 20% risk of getting headlice in a year.
- Perceived Risk
- Over and underestimating risk
- We overestimate risk if it is:
- Involuntary (out of our control)
- not natural
- unfamiliar
- dreaded
- unfair
- very small
- We underestimate risk if:
- it has an effect in the long-term e.g: smoking, excessive drinking, drugs
- We overestimate risk if it is:
- Based on factors such as interest and approval of the activity, not mathematical
- If data is lacking, we say the risk is uncertain
- Over and underestimating risk
- Different types of risk factor
- Hereditary
- Physical environment
- Social environment
- Lifestyle and behaviour choices
- Correlation and causation
- Correlation
- Positive correlation is seen when an increase in one variable causes an increase in the accompanying one
- e.g: number of cigarettes smoked in a lifetime and the chances of developing cardiovascular disease
- Negative correlation seen when the value of one variable increases whilst the other decreases
- Positive correlation is seen when an increase in one variable causes an increase in the accompanying one
- Just because there is a correlation, doesn't mean there is a direct causation
- Correlation
- What is risk?
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