Probability and Risk

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  • Created by: Holly
  • Created on: 24-10-13 18:33
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  • Probability and Risk
    • What is risk?
      • 'The probability of occurrence of some unwanted event or outcome'
      • Used to multiply the likelihood by the severity to give a risk rating
    • Working out probabilities
      • Risk probability has a time period
      • Fraction, can be turned into a percentage
      • e.g: In a class, 6 pupils out of 30 got headlice in a year, so 1 in 5 or 20% risk of getting headlice in a year.
    • Perceived Risk
      • Over and underestimating risk
        • We overestimate risk if it is:
          • Involuntary (out of our control)
          • not natural
          • unfamiliar
          • dreaded
          • unfair
          • very small
        • We underestimate risk if:
          • it has an effect in the long-term e.g: smoking, excessive drinking, drugs
      • Based on factors such as interest and approval of the activity, not mathematical
      • If data is lacking, we say the risk is uncertain
    • Different types of risk factor
      • Hereditary
      • Physical environment
      • Social environment
      • Lifestyle and behaviour choices
    • Correlation and causation
      • Correlation
        • Positive correlation is seen when an increase in one variable causes an increase in the accompanying one
          • e.g: number of cigarettes smoked in a lifetime and the chances of developing cardiovascular disease
        • Negative correlation seen when the value of one variable increases whilst the other decreases
      • Just because there is a correlation, doesn't mean there is a direct causation

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