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6. What is the basis of Bayesian inference?

  • Strategies scientists use when evaluating data consistent or inconsistent with their hypothesis
  • Change in probability of a hypothesis to new revised probability in light of new evidence
  • There is a degree of belief in a scientific hypothesis given the evidence
  • Data is not independent from the paradigm, therefore data cannot be used to decide between two paradigms

7. If the data in an experiment is inconsistent, what should the scientists do?

  • Change hypothesis
  • Change methods
  • Abandon hypothesis
  • Falsify the data

8. What theories pose problems for Bayes theorem?

  • Theories invented without a prior theory
  • Theories based on an earlier theory
  • Theories with little prior evidence
  • Theories invented without certain probabilites

9. Bayes theorem:

  • There is a degree of belief in a scientific hypothesis given the evidence
  • P(H/e) = P(H) x P(e) / P(e/H)
  • Change in probability of a hypothesis to new revised probability in light of new evidence
  • P(H/e) = P(e/H) x P(H) / P(e)