Case studies in intelligence failure

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what is the conventional wisdom about the reasons for 9/11 as given by the 9/11 commission
intelligence community lacked imagination to connect the dots and make sense of the information available
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what point does Erik Dahl make about intelligence gathering efforts and the kind of intelligence needed before 9/11
strategic intelligence gathering was very good but as 9/11 was actually a tactical event (despite strategic consequences) specific tactical intelligence was needed
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Who should primarily take the blame and why?
policy makers for not being receptive enough to the threat
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who is george tenet and what point of Betts' did he pick up on and what did he say?
DCI - failures in perspective - 'failure' implies IC was caught unaware by 9/11. To the contrary, they were expecting a massive attack. remember podcast about DIA
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what betts point does Richard Clarke pick up on and who is he?
former white - house counterterrorism advisor - paradox in perception - Bush administration had repeated warnings e.g. August 6, 2001 PDB
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Which of Betts' points is refuted by 9/11 commission?
pathologies in communication - 9/11 commission clearly states that Clinton and Bush were acutely aware of OBL threat
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What was the main source of intel on al Qaeda and where did it primarily come from
SIGINT from NSA mad up 80% of quality intelligence according to Richard Clarke
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What criticisms did Official Congressional reports make about the type of intelligence prior to 9/11
lack of HUMINT, nobody in OBLs inner circle
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what event has been cited as a demonstration that the CIA did not do enough to penetrate al Qaeda
1998 ABC face to face interview with Bin Laden - if news channels could get to him then an agent should be able to
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what evidence did DCI George Tenet give to 9/11 commission demonstrating that CIA provided good intelligence
between 1995 and 2001 CIA produced almost 50 papers containing STRATINT on OBL and al Qaeda
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Give some examples of warnings during the clinton admin
clear evidence of OBL funding terrorist activity from 1993 onwards; declaration of Jihad in 1996; multiple public interviews stating intent to attack the west specifically the US
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What key events occurred in 1998
bin laden orchestrated attack on US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania
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what evidence from 1998 suggests OBL had become a key target
large scale plans for OBLs capture rehearsed
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what key discoveries in 2000 were an important warning
millennium bomb plots
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Give two example of senior level warnings in 2001
July 2001 government briefing warning of a significant attack on us interests designed to inflict mass casualties in the coming weeks; August 6 2001 PDB
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tactical intelligence has been cited as lacking but what warnings did the FBI give during clinton administration
warned about possible hijackings and on at least one occasion specified the WTC as a potential target
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What was the Moussaoui case
FBI was warned in August 2001 about suspicious individuals who had enrolled in flight training paying in cash. They only wanted to learn to take off
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what other sources in the US provided reports in the months before the attacks
the State Department and the Congressional Research Service
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who gave warnings about highjacking threats to commercial airlines?
The CIA and FAA
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What evidence is there that the Clinton administration was aware of the terrorist threat
from 1994 onwards terrorism was mentioned in every state of the union address. in 1998 clinton addressed the UN saying terrorism was the top of the American agenda
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where can we see Betts attack warning in action
in Bush administration - August 6 PDB was very clear about the threat - Bush admin was slow to react - policy makers discount warnings if they don't fit in with prevailing norms
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where can we see Betts Operational evaluation in order
CIA were pessimistic about their assessments of covert action targeting Bin Laden during Clinton admin in part to secure more funding to defend against al Qaeda
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where can we see politics undermining defence policy response
Clinton opting for solutions that would have minimal impact on domestic politics e.g. covert action and predator drone strikes
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Betts talks about too little or too much information being an issue. was this the case during 9/11?
no. plenty of strategic intel. Also some tactical intel - likely targets and methods including WTC and highjacking were mentioned numerous times in reports and PDBs
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was ambivalence of judgement an issue prior to 9/11?
no. if anything the IC was biased towards an alarmist approach to al Qaeda
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ultimately who is responsible for 9/11 and who's theories are relevant?
Betts, and Gill & Pythian - problems at multiple stages of the intelligence cycle, also wider political issues, however policymakers were more at fault than IC
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Card 2

Front

what point does Erik Dahl make about intelligence gathering efforts and the kind of intelligence needed before 9/11

Back

strategic intelligence gathering was very good but as 9/11 was actually a tactical event (despite strategic consequences) specific tactical intelligence was needed

Card 3

Front

Who should primarily take the blame and why?

Back

Preview of the front of card 3

Card 4

Front

who is george tenet and what point of Betts' did he pick up on and what did he say?

Back

Preview of the front of card 4

Card 5

Front

what betts point does Richard Clarke pick up on and who is he?

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Preview of the front of card 5
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