Topics in Economic History Articles

John Komlos, “Shrinking in a growing Economy?”

Main Issue: Presents evidence regarding biological standards of living, particularly of the common man in both Europe and North America, at the onset of socioeconomic transformation associated with modern economic growth. It also looks into trends in life expectancy and how this links to quality of life. Use Height-by-age which is a function of nutrition and disease environment. 

Methodology: Figure 1- Heights of Americans, Figure 2 - Heights of English Soldiers 20-23. Looks at Income distribution effect ( heights increase at a decreasing rate), Relative price effect, Industrialisation (food and disease environment). Also looks at exogenous processes such as weather and epidemiological environment.

John Komlos, “Shrinking in a growing Economy?”

Findings: Figure 1 and 2 - clear decline in average height between 1830-1860. Two episodes identified during which physical stature declined- Europe 2nd half 18th century and in both in the 1830s-1840s. Middle and Upper class had rising incomes so heights did not decline. American slaves - value of slaves increased so was worth feeding them to keep them fit. 

Unlike other scholars who link this to disease links to economic process and structural change - population growth, urbanisation and greater inequality in distribution of income. His view - at the beginning of modern economic growth, progress was no uniform in all dimensions of human existence. The gains in income were too low to offset the declines in health.  

N. F. R Crafts, “The Human Development Index and Changes in Standards of Living: Some Historical Comparisons”

Main Issue: three main questions: 1) What has happened to HDI since 1870 and what can we learn from this experience? 2) How much importance should we attribute to changes in mortality and market-work time in augmenting conventional GDP growth? 3) Do imputations for changes in mortality and market-work time change our perception of relative economic performance over time or across countries? Overall seems clear that conventional measures of economic growth seriously understate the rate of improvement in living standard since 1870. 

Methodology: HDI discounts income above a threshold level, whereas HDI* does not. HDI is better for studies focusing on escape from poverty, whereas HDI* is better suited for examining average well-being. Table 1,2,3 - Components of HDI in 1870, 1913, 1950,1973. Table 5 - compares indices1870-1992  

N. F. R Crafts, “The Human Development Index and Changes in Standards of Living: Some Historical Comparisons”.

Findings: Table 5 - Differents in the speed of development in different eras. Third comparison disparities in rankings of countries by HDI and by real GDP/head. Evidence suggests that historical national accounts concepts of real GDP/head is not wholly adequate as a measure of past levels or long-run growth in living standards. Suggest it would be a mistake to concentrate on changes in mortality at the expense of ignoring changes in market-work time.

Voth, "Time and Work in Eighteenth-Century London"

Main Issues: Article demonstrates how information contained in witnesses' accounts allows us to reconstruct historical time-budgets and provides extensive tests of the new method. Uses findings regarding number of annual working hours to address the issue of total factor productivity during the Industrial Revolution. In other words working longer hours and having a higher income does not mean an unambiguous improvement in quality of life. We also need to know the labour input (i.e. worker hours) in order to determine the effects of the industrial revolution on overall productivity.

Methodology: Uses court records - individuals testify where they were, what they were doing, only uses records thought to be credible. Voth constructs a picture of the times that witnesses were at work. Acuurate- memory likely to be clear, credibility, number of checks using other data sources. Table 1, 2 - Logit Regressions - Workdays and work on Holy Days. Then looks at effect on TFP. 

Voth, "Time and Work in Eighteenth-Century London"

Findings: Demonstrates the feasibility of new method for reconstructing time-use in the past and has put forward some conclusions for the history of the Industrial Revolution. At presents the results from the Old Bailey Sessions papers cannot be said to provide wholly accurate measurements of working hours. Productivity growth may have played an even smaller role than is assumed in accounts of the British Industrial Revolution. 

States that abstention from leisure and only partly consumption that was at the core of economic growth. 

Goldin, “The human-capital century and American leadership: Virtues of the past”

Main Issue: Main questions addressed are why the 20th century was the human-capital century, how and why America led in education, and what impact this had on the U.S economy. The Virtues of the past need not be those of the present, and end by placing current US educational policy in historical perspective. Essay concerns mass secondary education because it came first and set the stage for transition to mass higher education.

Methodology: Full and part time secondary enrollment rates in US, compare gross enrollment rates in secondary and GDP per capita across 105 countries, 1990 also looks at gender differences. Looks at the 'High School Movement' -1910, High school graduation rates by state 1928. Returns to education by type of schooling and occupation. 

Goldin, “The human-capital century and American leadership: Virtues of the past”

Findings: Figure 2- All developed countries have high levels of schooling in 1990. Most countries in the developing world have levels of schooling above that of US between 1900-1960. Figure 3 - Above US income per capita in 1900 the secondary enrolment rate is about the same for boys and girls. At lower levels of income, the rate is higher for boys. Figure 5- 15% return for University education and 12% for high school. This declines through 1950. 

Joel Mokyr, The Lever of Riches, 151-192.

Main Issue: Why does technological change occur in some societies and not in others? Concentrates on the supply of technological change. Did demand determine the overall intensity of the effort, its success rate, the implementation of improvements and thus the technological creativity of a society? 

Methodology: Looks at life expectancy- If expected to die sooner then less time to focus on invention. Nurition - May affect intelligence and low protein during first 18-24 months of life will cripple mental development. Willingness to bear risk - invention always involves risk. Geographical environment. Path Dependency - Invention tends to be less local, this is revolving around technology use. Some paths of invention led to future progress. Science and technology and Religion. Politics, Labour costs, resistance to innovation. 

Joel Mokyr, The Lever of Riches, 151-192.

Findings: Short life expectancy - less time to invent. Poor nutrition - lack of growth leading to less inventive technology. Religion - some religions are not accepting of change therefore do not like invention. Path dependency - some inventions depend on the past. Easier to develop than to invent. Problem of water in mining shaft - lead to development of the steam engine. Instututions and technological change - most important institutions govern whethe inventors can enrich themselves. Intellectural property rights law. Capital markets, inventors may need to borrow money to develop ideas; autocracy, dictators typically resist change including technological change; and social resistance to innovation.

Zorina Khan and Kenneth Sokoloff, “‘Schemes of Practical Utility’: Entrepeneurship and Innovation Among ‘Great Inventors’ in the United States, 1790-1865”, Journal of Economic History, 53, 2, 289-307

Main Issue: Looks into the question about the process of economic growth is the extent to which technical change responds to market forces or is otherwise endogenously determined. 

Methodology: Region shares of patents, great inventor patents, and population. Annual totals of all patents and of great inventor patents. Personal characteristics of the great inventors. Outsiders and insiders: the relation of first major invention to the prior occupation. Distribution of great inventor patents by region and migratory status. Distribution by county of birth and county of parenting. Distribution by income and occupation. 

Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson, “Reversal of Fortune: Geography and Institutions in the Making of the Modern World”,

Main Issue:This paper documents a reversal in relative incomes among the former European colonies. Among countries colonised by European powers during the past 500 years, those that were relatively rich in 1500 are not relatively poor. 

Methodology: Use data on urbanisation patterns and population density, which we argue proxy for economic prosperity. Compare Urbanisation in 1500 to Log GDP per capita 1995. Authors wish to document the reversal of fortune. To do this, they need to show that European colonies that were rich in 1500 are poor in1995 and vise versa. Look at the geographical determination hypothesis an institution hypothesis. 

Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson, “Reversal of Fortune: Geography and Institutions in the Making of the Modern World”

Findings:

Urbanization at time t is associated with higher income at time t. This implies that the measures used in figures 1 and 2 (urbanization and population density in 1500) are reasonable proxies for per capita GDP in 1500. Tables 3,4,5 - The former European colonies that were rich in 1500 are poor in 1995. This is the reversal of fortune. Figure IVa shows that the period 1750-1850 was critical for the reversal. This is the time of the industrial revolution. This suggests that the reversal occurred because some factors (growth-enhancing institutions) facilitated industrialization, whereas others did not. 

Nathan Nunn, "The Importance of History for Economic Development"

Main Issue: This article provides a survey of a growing body of empirical evidence that points towards the important long-term effects that historic events can have on current economic development. 

Methodology: Path dependency- direct links between past decisions and current actions. Common-Law – Elected governments layout broad legal framework. The law evolves in the court through judicial interpretation, given the role of precedent. Common law – Elected governments are the sole providers of the law. The judicial system only has an enforcement role.

Findings: Main fact established by the literature is that history matters, shortcomings lie in the inability to identify the exact mechanism of causality. This literature has grown greatly in recent years. many more historical events are left to be examined before a clear picture of the importance of historical events can be made.  

Jeffrey G. Williamson, “Urban Disamenities, Dark Satanic Mills, and the British Standard of Living Debate”

Main Issues: What are the economic costs and costs to wellbeing to the British worker during Urbanisation?

Methodology: Surveys and regressions. Survey was carried out by the Board of Trade for infant mortality rates. Wage and cost of living data were collected for 72 towns. Cost of living Index included rent, furl and food. Wages were regressed against disamenity variables for Table 1. Table 2 Infant mortality rate was regressed on density, population and employment mix. Results from the survey were used to carry out and test both regressions. 

Jeffrey G. Williamson, “Urban Disamenities, Dark Satanic Mills, and the British Standard of Living Debate”

Findings: Urban disamenities are class-specific and will be higher for lower-income groups. Mortality evidence suggests that there was a bigger difference in the quality of life between urban and rural places- it was higher in cities. Costs incurred by British Workers when moving to urban areas were trivial due to higher nominal wages. No evidence to support that quality of life was deteriorating, in fact death rates continued to fall. It is unlikely urban disamenities accounted for much of the rise in wages in Industrial Revolution. It was found that density and town size do not have significant impact on nominal wages.

Leah Platt Boustan, Devin Bunten, and Owen Hearey, “Urbanization in the United States, 1800-2000”

Main Issue:Document the economic forces that led the US to become an urban nation over its two hundred year history. 

Methodology: Use observation of Data from the 1800s all the way to 2010 to identify patterns - mixed methodology in the paper. Reference existing studies to justify statements. Authors then analyse this data and make conclusions about correlations and causation of observable trends and establish the theory. 

Leah Platt Boustan, Devin Bunten, and Owen Hearey, “Urbanization in the United States, 1800-2000”

Findings: Urbanisation escalated from 10% in early 1800s to 60% in 1930s. Rosen- Roback model infers cities whose growth is due to a new consumption amenity will offer lower wages and charge higher rents. Location of workers and firms within metropolitan areas began to scatter. Decentalisation of employment opportunities affected groups differently according to their ability to suburbanise. Over the late 1800s, there is a shift to manufacturing. Large cities were prioritised for shipping and manufacturing as their function. 

Zorina Khan and Kenneth Sokoloff, “‘Schemes of Practical Utility’: Entrepeneurship and Innovation Among ‘Great Inventors’ in the United States, 1790-1865”, 

Finding: Argues that information from a sample of 160 great inventors does not support those important inventions are haphazard and unresponsive to the prospect of material gain. Data indicates that though not especially distinctive age, occupation or education, inventors of the antebellum era were typically entrepreneurial and responded systematically to changes effected by the remarkable extension of markets.  The experience of great inventors seems to be entirely consistent with the idea that technical change during early industrialization was substantially due to increase investments in inventive activity.