Population Dynamics

• World population began to grow rapidly in the 1800s
• The worlds population was growing exponentially however future population growth is uncertain
• The UN has made three predictions about future population growth:
  • UN high - lots of births and not many deaths
  • UN medium - births and deaths stay about the same as recent years
  • UN low - the number of births decreases

Stage 1 e.g. Amazonian Tribes

• High birth rate  -> children help with farming, high infant mortality, religious/social encouragement
• High death rate -> disease, famine, poor health
• No natural increase

Stage 2 e.g. Bangladesh

• High birth rate -> children help with farming, no family planning, religious/social encouragement
• Rapidly decreasing death rate -> improved medical care, fewer children die, improved sanitation
• Total population increasing rapidly

Stage 3 e.g. Brazil

• Decreasing birth rate -> fewer children are needed
• Slowly decreasing death rate -> improved medical care, fewer children die
• Total population slowly increasing

Stage 4 e.g. UK

• Low birth rate -> family planning, improving staus of women
• Low death rate -> people live much longer, better health care, reliable food supply
• Natural increase stable/slow increase

Stage 5 e.g. Germany

• Very low birth rate -> family planning, improving staus of women
• Low death rate -> people live much longer, better health care, reliable food supply
• Population slowly decreasing

• The UK has an ageing population with a high life expectancy (80.1)
• The birth rate is low and continuing to fall -> UK may experience a natural increase in the near future
• The UK has one of the largest economies in the world with the majority of people employed in the tertiary sector, women on average earn nearly as much as men with women wanting to pursue careers -> low birth rate
• The main factor preventing the UK population from decreasing is immigration due to the 'open-door' policy of the EU, encouraged immigration to fulfill labour shortfalls 
• The UK is a politically stable nation with good diplomatic relationships -> 5th most common destination for asylum seekers

• Gambia has a very youthful population with a high percentage of young dependents (92.3%), there are very few elderly dependents
• Gambia is a developing country where 75% of the population works in subsitence farming -> people have large families to help work the land
• More people are beginning to working in tourism so birth rates may start to fall
• The Gambia has a net migration of -2.5 per 1000 as people are leaving the Gambia to seek a better life in developed countries
• The Gambia is not currently at war -> low migration rate and rapid population growth (25.9 per 1000 natural increase)

High birth rate:

• Lack of availability of contraception
• Children help work on the land
• Low marriage age
• Religion forbids birth control
• High infant mortality

Low birth rate:

• Women stay in education
• People want to spend money on holidays etc. not children
• Improved health
• Women want careers

China intorduced a one-child policy in 1979 to prevent over population as the Chinese government predicted that at the current rate of population increase there would be a lot of poverty and starvation

To implement the policy, women were persuaded to have an abortion if they became pregnant a second time and factory workers have to get permission to have a child.  If people had a second child, they had to pay back healthcare and childcare for child 1 and 2

Advantages:

• Over-crowding - China is rapidly urbanising so a reduced population will reduce overcrowded cities
• Climate change - if the population was not controlled, CO2 emissions would be higher (China has world's greatest CO2 emissions)
• Resources e.g. food supply - reduces the demand for resources & risk of famine/starvation

Disadvantages:

• 4-2-1 structure - more elderly dependants
• Gender balance - boys more favourable than girls so girls may be abandoned
• Enforcement - wealthy people could have more than 1 child without penalty & people were forced to have abortions

France has a pro-natalist policy as there has been a decrease in the number of working age people and an increase in elderly dependants.  If the current rate of decline in birth rate continues, France's population will decline and demise

They offered incentives such as 30% discount on public transport for 3-child families, £1064 to couples having their 3rd child and nursing mothers are allowed to work part-time or have a day off every week

Advantages:

• Large public backing for the policy - policies been in place for over 60 years with little controversy
• Fertility rate dropped from 2.73 in 1960 to 1.73 in 1992 then rose again to 1.98 in 2007 when new incentives were introduced

Disadvantages:

• It is a very complicated system with over 30 different incentives
• Many members of the public feel that it is unfair for the third child to have better financial support than the first or second child
• Some traditionalists say it is a feminist policy rather than a family-based policy - you don't need to be married and can still work

Push Factors:

• Low wages in your home country
• Poverty where you live
• Poor quality of life
• High unemployment

Pull Factors:

• Higher wages
• Skill shortages
• Lots of job vacancies
• Ageing population

Migration rates in the USA have been rising steadily with many migrants from south America and central America.  The policy limits the amount s immigrants by making them obtain a visa.

The 4 aims of the USA immigration policy were:

• To admit workers with specific skills for jobs where workers are in short supply
• To reunite families by admitting immigrants who already have family members in the USA
• To provide refuge to people who face racial, political or religious persectution in their country of origin
• To increase ethnic diversity by admitting people from countries with previusly low rates of immigration to the USA

Advantages:

• Immigrants add more than $30 billion to the economy and contribute to tax revenue - many fill unskilled, low wage jobs
• 40% of US PhD scientists were born abroad

Disadvantages:

• Health and welfare systems are put under strain
• Immigrants often live in their own communities and do not integrate into American society and culture

The aim of the UK migration policy was to reduce the flow of migrant workers into the UK

• Migrants have to have a visa (like USA)
• They want to attract skilled workers (like USA)
• To gain a visa you must speak good English
• The impacts of the EU 'open door' policy ->  will be impacted by Brexit
• You must pass a citizenship test

The aim of the Russian immigration policy is to stabilise the population and ensure there are enough workers to maintain economic growth

• They want to encourage workers to come and work in highly skilled professions (like USA)
• They offer cash incentives to encourage Russians who had moved abroad to come back and live in Russia
• Russia does not have a limit on the amount of migrants who may enter due to their steadily declining population (unlike USA)