SEE: Tectonics: 1.8A

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  • 1.8A: Prediction and forecasting. Role of scientists!
    • Prediction- knowing when and where a natural hazard will strike on a spatial and temporal scale that can be acted on meaningfully
      • Earthquakes cannot be predicted
        • Research by scientists into predicting earthquakes focusses on warning signs e.g. movement of magma
          • This is still in its infancy
      • Tsunamis can be predicted, as we can detect the earthquake and predict during the lagtime as the tsunami forms and travels to land
        • Important so we can evacuate coastal communities
          • Japan 2011 tsunami was predicted
        • There are 2 tsunami warning systems in the Pacific and Indian Ocean
        • DART: deep-ocean assessment and reporting of tsunamis
          • Works by using seabed sensors and surface buoys to monitor changes in sea level and pressure
            • Then when tsunamis are detected the system sends information to warning stations
      • Volanoes can be predicted, as they have warning signs before they erupt
        • 1. They tilt the right as magma rises
        • 2. Changes to shape of volcano, it will swell as magma rises
        • 3. Small earthquakes b4 eruption on seismograms
        • 1991 Mount Pinatubo was predicted by scientists
        • Prediction allows for there to be better management of hazard impacts
      • For predictions to be successful, they must be spatially and temporally accurate
        • This means there is not a realistic prospect of being able to predict earthquakes in the near future
    • Forecasting- less precipe, provides a % chance of hazards occuring in a particular place
      • Earthquakes can be forecasted
        • This can be done via data and evidence gathered from global seismic monitoring and historical records
        • It encourages governments to enforce better building regulations in areas of high stress
      • Volanoes can be forecasted, as this is based on the statistical likelihood of an event happening in a location
  • O.J on prediction and forecasting as an effective management technique of tectonic hazards
    • Yes, volcanoes (Pinatubo) and tsunamis can be predicted (Japan), and this can encourage governments to prepare for an oncoming hazard, reducing its impact
    • -We still cannot predict spatially and temporarlly e.g. Mount Ontake had 24/7 monitoring but wasn't predicted
      • Until we have more accuracy, we should focus on predicting which societies are most at risk and help them to prep

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