Climate Wars
- Created by: CAugust100
- Created on: 15-05-18 12:29
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- Climate Wars
- Just War
- just cause
- A war is only just when all other deterrents have been
attempted and failed
- Sanctions
- Trade bans
- UN Security Council Resolutions
- Jus ad Vim (The Right to Use Force)
- Jus in Bello (Laws of War)
- Principle of Discrimination
- Requires combatants to discriminate between combatants and civilians and attack only combatants.
- Combatants may not attack a target with the deliberate intention of killing civilians
- Combatants may not attack a target indiscriminately – that is, without making an effort/taking due care to distinguish between enemy combatants and civilians
- Also applies to civilian property
- Principle of Proportionality
- This differs in important respects
from the condition of proportionality required under Jus ad Bellum
- Jus ad Bellum – What is being protected must be worth more than what is being harmed
- The harm caused by a particular military action carried out during war must not be disproportionate with the contribution of the attack/action to victory in the overall war
- This differs in important respects
from the condition of proportionality required under Jus ad Bellum
- Principle of Due Care
- Principle of Discrimination
- Resource Conflicts
- Conflicts based on Subsistence needs
- Conflicts arise for diminishing resources or for access to resources
- Angola, Liberia and Sierra Leone
- The Global Policy Forum consider these conflicts resource conflicts
- Angola, Liberia and Sierra Leone
- Likelihood of resource conflicts are more likely in developing countries
- Mass globalisation and rapid population growth has led contribute to this
- As a result, there is increased competition for these resources
- Samset (2009) has placed a weak correlation with scarcity of resources and conflicts
- As a result, there is increased competition for these resources
- Mass globalisation and rapid population growth has led contribute to this
- Conflicts arise for diminishing resources or for access to resources
- Conflicts have arisen on an international level
- Middle East
- Jordan River Basin (1964-67)
- Tigris-Euphrates Basin
- War-fare in Iraq
- Africa
- Volta River
- Zambezi River
- Niger Basin
- Nile River Basin
- Asia
- Indus River Basin
- Ganges River
- Middle East
- Israeli Jordan Water War 1964-1967
- Israel’s National Water Carrier project
siphoned water from the Sea of Galilee
- Arab states decreased the National Water
Carrier capacity by 35% by diverting the Jordan River (Hasbani and Banias) to
the Yarmouk River.
- Escalations took place in 1964: Israel
declared the Diversion Project as an infringement on its sovereign rights.
- 1965: Syria-Israeli border shootings of
Israeli farmers led to Israeli military destroying machinery that was used for
the diversion plan.
- Control of water resources and the military escalation against the diversion effort are among the factors which led to the 6-Day War of 1967.
- 1965: Syria-Israeli border shootings of
Israeli farmers led to Israeli military destroying machinery that was used for
the diversion plan.
- Escalations took place in 1964: Israel
declared the Diversion Project as an infringement on its sovereign rights.
- Arab states decreased the National Water
Carrier capacity by 35% by diverting the Jordan River (Hasbani and Banias) to
the Yarmouk River.
- Israel’s National Water Carrier project
siphoned water from the Sea of Galilee
- Increasing water wars
- The Middle East has 6% of the worlds population
- However it only has access to 2% of the worlds renewable water supply
- 12 of the world’s most water scarce
countries: Algeria, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Libya, Oman, the Palestinian
Territories, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen
are in the MENA region
- MENA: Middle East & North Africa
- Most MENA countries cannot sustainably meet their current water demand. Based on population growth and increased demand, water availability per capita is expected to be halved by 2050.
- 12 of the world’s most water scarce
countries: Algeria, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Libya, Oman, the Palestinian
Territories, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen
are in the MENA region
- However it only has access to 2% of the worlds renewable water supply
- The Middle East has 6% of the worlds population
- Conflicts based on Subsistence needs
- Climate Change as a security threat
- Sub-Saharan Africa is particularly vulnerable to climate change
- There's a delicate balance between society and the environment
- Burke
et. al. found
50%
increase
in
armed
conflict
between
1981
and
2002:
‘urgent need to
reform African governments’ and
foreign
aid donors’ policies to deal
with rising temperatures.’
- Buhuag (2010)
finds
no
significant
causal
correlation
between
civil
wars and climate
change
in
Sub-Saharan Africa over the
past
fifty
years
- •‘climate variability is a poor predictor of armed conflict. Instead, African civil wars can be explained by generic structural and contextual conditions: widespread ethno-political exclusion, poor national economy, and the collapse of the Cold War system.’
- A growing body
of
theoretical and empirical research
suggests a
link between
climate
change and increased violent conflict
- Counter-claims
to this suggest climate change does not significantly increase violent
conflict, and can even increase peace and stability
- Hsiang,
Burke and
Miguel (2013)
- based
on
the analyses
of
60 quantitative
studies
- ‘strong causal evidence linking climatic events to human conflict across a range of spatial and temporal scales and across all major regions of the world.’
- but these findings have already been criticised and challenged by Raleigh et.al. (2014).
- Hsiang,
Burke and
Miguel (2013)
- based
on
the analyses
of
60 quantitative
studies
- Counter-claims
to this suggest climate change does not significantly increase violent
conflict, and can even increase peace and stability
- Buhuag (2010)
finds
no
significant
causal
correlation
between
civil
wars and climate
change
in
Sub-Saharan Africa over the
past
fifty
years
- Securitisation: According to the
Copenhagen School “an object being qualified as an existential threat, and thus
raises that objects importance, simultaneously increasing awareness of, and
attention for, it, and also allowing for the suspension when necessary of
normal political behaviour (Wæver 1995)”.
- •Securitising non-traditional objects as existential threats legitimises the use of exceptional measures.
- Climate change as a threat to human security
- Food rights
- Subsistence rights
- Threat to citizenship or livelihood
- Climate related migration
- Clear danger
- Kiribati
- “Our
future is actually written. It is
written on the wall that the sea level will rise and it will affect our
islands…the international community cannot ignore that” – Anote Tong
- Sea levels predicted to rise 3.3 metres
- Complete loss of Kiribati land
- War of self defence?
- Who's responsible?
- Complete loss of Kiribati land
- Sea levels predicted to rise 3.3 metres
- New Zealand offered to host fleeing migrants
- What nationality would new Kiribati children be?
- Land is still New Zealand's
- What nationality would new Kiribati children be?
- “Our
future is actually written. It is
written on the wall that the sea level will rise and it will affect our
islands…the international community cannot ignore that” – Anote Tong
- Sub-Saharan Africa is particularly vulnerable to climate change
- Climate Change
- Climate change is an anthropocentric process
- IPCC (2013): 95% likely that 50% of climate change is anthropocentric
- Anthropocentric means human causes
- IPCC (2013): 95% likely that 50% of climate change is anthropocentric
- El Nino/La Nina effect
- Dry
El Niño
years double the risk of armed
conflict in tropical countries
heavily affected by
the El
Niño/Southern Oscillation, compared
to the cooler
La Niña
phase (Hsiang et al.
(2011).
- 20% of the nearly 250 conflicts happening between 1950 and 2004 in these regions, can be linked to the 4 to 7 year ENSO cycle.
- El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a period of irregular changes in wind and sea temperatures
- Dry
El Niño
years double the risk of armed
conflict in tropical countries
heavily affected by
the El
Niño/Southern Oscillation, compared
to the cooler
La Niña
phase (Hsiang et al.
(2011).
- Climate change is an anthropocentric process
- Just War
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