Voting behaviour

What's the long term voting model?
Sociological model
1 of 121
What factors are sociological?
Class, age, race, region, gender and religion
2 of 121
What's the short term voting model?
Rational choice model
3 of 121
What are the rational choice model factors?
Issues, candidates, media, tv debates, campaigns and events
4 of 121
What's socialisation?
The process of learning and developing political views from friends, family etc... It creates the long term influences between groups
5 of 121
Which type of factors are seen in the increasing partisan alignment?
The long term factors - groups more split
6 of 121
What's partisan identification?
Feeling you belong to a certain party - identify with them. Eg. "I am a Democrat"
7 of 121
What % of people were said to be independent from a 2014 survey by ANES?
42%
8 of 121
What % of voters are actually independent? (don't have a lean)
10%, possibly as low as 3 or 4% of voters
9 of 121
What's partisan re-alignment?
A political shift of a certain group, often after a significant historical event
10 of 121
Which groups aligned with the two main parties during the Civil War?
Democrats had the South (white farmers). Republicans had free men in North and skilled workers
11 of 121
When was their a re-alignment after the split of the Civil War?
The Great Depression - New Deal
12 of 121
Who was in the New Deal Coalition?
The white southerners, along with african americans, immigrants, Jewish, Catholic, working class
13 of 121
When did the New Deal Coalition break and who caused it?
Truman in 1948, when he had a liberal party platform at the National Convention, created a Civil Rights Committee and desegregated the military
14 of 121
Who walked out at the 1948 Democrat convention?
The Southerners
15 of 121
What party did Strom Thurmond run for and how many states did he win in 1948?
State's Rights Party - 4 states (deep south)
16 of 121
What has altered alignment in the 60s and 70s?
Civil rights, Vietnam War, views on welfare and abortion
17 of 121
What alienated the South from the Democrats in the 60s and 70s?
Became liberal, creating Medicare and Medicaid, as well as supporting Civil Rights
18 of 121
Who started winning Southern states for the Republicans in 1964?
Barry Goldwater
19 of 121
Who continued to win the South in 1968 and what was the effort called?
Nixon's Southern Strategy (knew he needed the south to win P- and he did)
20 of 121
What did Reagan talk about in 1980 campaign, instead of civil rights?
States rights
21 of 121
How did Reagan make the party significantly more conservative?
Tax cuts and spending cuts, opposed affirmative action and abortion
22 of 121
When is partisanship very clearly seen on the electoral map?
1992 Clinton map is split - not sweeping victory
23 of 121
How does the media refer to the states from 2000?
As red and blue states
24 of 121
Who do African Americans usually vote for?
The democrats (Obama 2008 95%)
25 of 121
Which way do Hispanics generally lean and why?
It's a wide group, but lean Democrat. Usually socially R but against their immigration policies
26 of 121
Which way do Jewish lean?
Democrats (socialist labour/trade unions)
27 of 121
Who was the first Catholic president and what % of Catholic vote did he receive?
JFK in 1960 - 80%
28 of 121
What is the Catholic split like today?
About an even split today
29 of 121
What's the two main factions of Protestant voters?
Mainline and Evangelical
30 of 121
What's mainline?
They evolve to time and are more liberal
31 of 121
What's evangelical?
They take the bible as the literal word of God and are much more socially conservative
32 of 121
When was the rise of the religious right?
The 70s
33 of 121
How did Reagan appeal to Evangelics? What portion of votes did he get?
Supported school prayer and right to life. 2/3 of evangelical vote
34 of 121
Which way do the two protestant groups lean?
Mainline is evenly split, Evangelics lean Republican
35 of 121
What increases the lean of protestants to Republicans?
If they attend church weekly. Goes from about equal split to 70% for Romney
36 of 121
How does age affect voting behaviour?
Youth vote D, older vote R
37 of 121
What other factors overlap with age?
Youth are more ethnically diverse and are less likely to attend weekly religious service (both things that lean D)
38 of 121
How does the youth vote of 1992 contrast today?
1992 was about even split to parties (generation grew up under Reagan) vs. today vote significantly Democrat (grew up with Clinton's economics and Bush's controversial foreign policy)
39 of 121
How does gender affect voting behaviour? Is it the same in the UK?
Female much more likely to vote Democrat - the UK's gap is insignificant
40 of 121
When was the record gender gap?
2016 - 24% gender gap
41 of 121
What core ideas of the Democrats attract female voters?
Pro-welfare, healthcare and gun-reforms. Less supportive of overseas intervention
42 of 121
How does income create a lean to certain parties, but why is the gap not huge?
Wealthier voters tend to vote R (for tax cuts) while poorer households vote D (for welfare). The gap isn't huge because economy is not the only voting factor
43 of 121
What region does the Republican party have as a solid base at presidential elections?
The deep south
44 of 121
What states do Democrats rely on?
The 'solid North-East' and pacific coast
45 of 121
What's the 'purple America' theory?
When broken down into districts, the divide is much less clear than specific states. Started by Vanderbei in 2000, the map shows a much less partisan America
46 of 121
What's the lean of rural areas v. large cities?
The Democrats take the large cities (tend to be younger, more diverse), while Republicans take rural (often older, white and more religious)
47 of 121
What's the reasoning for voting with the Rational Choice model?
Personal benefits vs costs of party/candidate and self interest
48 of 121
When are presidential debates held?
September to October
49 of 121
How long are they and how many? (including VP)
90 minutes each, the Presidential candidates have 3 while the Vice-Presidents have 1
50 of 121
What types of debates did they use in 2016?
Two podiums and one town hall
51 of 121
When was the first TV debate ever held?
1960
52 of 121
Who was the 1960 debate between?
Nixon v JFK
53 of 121
Who seemed to win the first debate?
JFK for TV viewers, as Nixon looked ill (recent operation) vs. Radio listeners felt Nixon won
54 of 121
What did this suggest about TV debates?
Style is as important as substance
55 of 121
Why can debates help the younger candidates with less experience?
They appear more legitimate and Presidential
56 of 121
What did the 1976 TV debates teach future candidates?
Don't make verbal errors, will be repeated by media/news.
57 of 121
Who made the error in 1976?
Ford said there was no Soviet Union rule in the East (Carter won)
58 of 121
How did Reagan have an advantage in the 1980s debates?
Film star - more confident and relaxed in front of cameras
59 of 121
How did Reagan close a debate?
Asking questions to audience like "Are you better off now than 4 years ago?" (worked against incumbent Carter)
60 of 121
When was the most recent debates to have 3 candidates and who are they?
Clinton, Bush and Perot in 1992
61 of 121
Who was considered to win the first debate? Who won the election?
Perot largely won first debate - got good coverage. However Clinton favourite throughout, wins election
62 of 121
Why was 2000 so controversial?
Very close - Gore won popular vote by 500,000 votes, but Bush won Electoral college
63 of 121
How did Gore behave in debates?
Sighing and interrupting - so Bush gained
64 of 121
Why was Obama's 2012 performance at the first debate so different to 2008s?
He seemed tired and bored - most felt he lost first debate
65 of 121
Why are debates probably not very impactful?
Late in the year so most decided, they just reinforce held beliefs- about 10% undecided (could be 4%) and these won't matter if they're in solid states
66 of 121
What are the different types of campaign ads?
Positive or attack
67 of 121
What's the famous 1964 attack ad?
"Daisy" on Goldwater (from LBJ) that suggested nuclear war could begin with Goldwater while the country would be safe with Johnson
68 of 121
What's the famous 1984 positive ad?
"Prouder, Better, Stronger" - for Reagan, reinforcing his work already with patriotic, happy scenes
69 of 121
What was the divide of positive to attack ads in 2012?
130,000 positive to 880,000 negative
70 of 121
There's no evidence to prove ads work - how does 2004 prove this?
Kerry ran 200,000 more ads than Bush and still lost
71 of 121
When did an advert backfire?
Romney (2012) accused Obama of sending car jobs overseas, but manufacturers publicly disagreed
72 of 121
How did Obama have a headstart in 2012?
As incumbent he was already nominated but Romney needed to be officially nominated at Convention
73 of 121
How did Romney's stance change from primaries to Presidential race?
He was significantly more conservative during primaries to attract base, while moderate at race to have wider appeal to nation
74 of 121
How did Romney's wealth cause him problems?
Pressured to release tax returns - had only paid 14% tax rate on huge wealth
75 of 121
What was the 2012 'October surprise' and how did it affect the P race?
Hurricane Sandy - Obama responded well, gave him a boost
76 of 121
What was the 2016 'October surprise'?
Comey released letter reopening FBI investigation into Clinton's emails
77 of 121
Examples of failing companies that got bail outs from Obama?
Billions given to General Motors and Chrysler
78 of 121
Why did giving money to car industry help in key states?
Swing state Ohio = 1 in 8 jobs related to car industry (Romney had disagreed with plan)
79 of 121
What's a 'get out the vote' campaign?
Very few swing voters, it's about getting your party's base out to vote (need the turnout of your party)
80 of 121
What was Obama's analytics project name and what did it do?
Project Narwhal - targeted emails, they were tailored to interests of receiver
81 of 121
Voting Age Population vs. Voting Eligible Population?
Turnout is measured on the number of people over 18 or the number of those eligible to vote over 18
82 of 121
What makes someone not eligible to vote?
Not citizen, criminal
83 of 121
What was 2008 turnout?
62.3% VEP
84 of 121
Why does divided gov make it hard at elections?
Voters have to work out who to blame - president or congress majority party
85 of 121
What's political efficacy?
How much impact a voter feels they'll have on the final result
86 of 121
Why is political efficacy so low in the US?
Very few competitive states so lots of wasted votes (winner-takes-all) and wealthy donors give impression money gives the power
87 of 121
Where's the highest turnout?
In swing states (Ohio 71% vs Texas 42%)
88 of 121
What can alienate voters within their party?
The negative attack ads - discourages voters within a party
89 of 121
How does a two party system create political efficacy?
If not interested in two main parties, they will have little impact with vote. (1992 Perot - 5% turnout spike from previous year)
90 of 121
What's voter fatigue?
Too many elections, get fed up of voting. Presidential (4), Congress (2) and some states hold state and local on odd number years
91 of 121
What's hapathy?
The idea voters are reasonably content these days, as basic needs are covered
92 of 121
Why aren't elections accessible?
Open 7am to 8pm on Tuesday and difficult registration
93 of 121
Why is registering to vote different to most countries?
It's voluntary
94 of 121
Why did the number of AA registered in the South rocket from 1960 to 1970?
The 1965 Voting Act blocked literacy tests
95 of 121
What changed in 1993 in regards to registering to vote?
Must be allowed to register by mail
96 of 121
What was added to voting in 2002?
Provisional ballots - officials check if it's eligible afterwards
97 of 121
Why are registration deadlines restrictive?
Often close 25-30 days before election - people become most interested in the election in final weeks
98 of 121
What are young voters often restricted by for registration?
Often have to re-register when you move house, and they are much less likely to be settled
99 of 121
What proof is there allowing registration on election day improves turnout?
in 2012 11 states and DC allowed it, turnout was average 12% higher
100 of 121
What 2013 decision undermines 1965 Voting Act?
Shelby County v. Holder (2013)
101 of 121
Who does photo ID affect?
Poor, minority voters
102 of 121
Why is photo ID not necessary to prevent voting fraud?
It rarely happens - Bush had 5yr investigation into voter fraud and little evidence was found
103 of 121
What's differential turnout or abstention?
It's the varying levels of turnout/abstention between social groups
104 of 121
Who did the drop in AA turnout affect in 2016?
Worked against H.Clinton
105 of 121
How much did young voter turnout increase from 2000 to 2012?
From 40% to 50%
106 of 121
What's the gap between under 50k and under 75k, what was it previously?
Has been 20% but now 15% (less of a factor)
107 of 121
By how much are eligible white voters decreasing and who does this benefit?
8% less white than 20yrs ago (benefits D - minorities on increase)
108 of 121
What's the Democratic project in Texas?
Battleground Texas - getting Hispanics to register, could be majority ethnicity in 10yrs
109 of 121
Why is the Southern Strategy not really working for Republicans now?
White population of US decreasing - was 90% in the 1960s, now 72%
110 of 121
What's a split ticket?
Voting for different parties for different seats in the same election
111 of 121
What's a straight ticket?
All the same party
112 of 121
How does it compare to UK?
Lords unelected, PM indirectly elected and local elections are on different years - not an opportunity
113 of 121
What did America seem to prefer in 70s and 80s with split gov?
Republican President for foreign policy and Democrat Congress for welfare (Reagan Democrats)
114 of 121
What's cognitive madisonianism?
Like James Madison, consciously splitting ticket as they feel divided government is superior (very unlikely)
115 of 121
How can US candidates distance themselves from party?
They run their own campaigns, ads, team. Regional differences show this
116 of 121
What are regional differences in candidates?
Southern Democrats often against gun reform, tougher immigration policies
117 of 121
Why are incumbents likely to be reelected?
Got a record - been bringing home the bacon
118 of 121
Proof that split ticketing is ending?
2016 - all states that voted R for President, voted R for Senate (same for D)
119 of 121
Why doesn't divided government always come from split tickets?
Wasted votes from gerrymandering and winner-takes-all
120 of 121
What has lead to more straight tickets?
Ideological gap has grown so people unlikely to support opposite parties (much less overlap)
121 of 121

Other cards in this set

Card 2

Front

What factors are sociological?

Back

Class, age, race, region, gender and religion

Card 3

Front

What's the short term voting model?

Back

Preview of the front of card 3

Card 4

Front

What are the rational choice model factors?

Back

Preview of the front of card 4

Card 5

Front

What's socialisation?

Back

Preview of the front of card 5
View more cards

Comments

No comments have yet been made

Similar Government & Politics resources:

See all Government & Politics resources »See all USA voter behaviour resources »