US VOTING BEHAVIOUR

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What is voting Behaviour?
The way in which people vote in elections at local, national or state level.
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Why does Voting Behaviour absorb a great deal of time for political parties in America?
They put much effort into analysing VB patterns and predicting their voter base.
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Why do political parties attempt to analyse their vote base?
In order to see where they should concentrate their efforts, examine where time and money is wasted.
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When referring to voting habits what can we say?
That any comment about social,religious or minority groups only generalised but logic dictates that not all African americans vote dem but trends indicate large prop do.
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What is VAP?
Voting age population. Everyone of voting age including felons, those holding criminal records and non-citizenship status.
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What is VEP?
Voting Eligible Population. Registered voters.
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What is Absenteenism?
The failure to appear to vote. Lowering turnout.
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What was the turnout in 1996?
51.4%
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What was the turnout in 2000?
54.2%
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What was the turnout in 2004?
60.4%
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What was the turnout in 2008?
62.3%
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What was the 2012 turnout?
58.2%
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What was the 2016 turnout?
54.7%
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Explain the correlation in turnout? &why?
Turnout changes in each election; 2008-64% highest since 1960; due to the success of the 'ground war' more inspiring candidates. FIRST BLACK PRESIDENT.
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Why may voters not turnout?
Lack of choice. Hapathy (Content with government). Apathy/Cynicism, Washington isn’t representative. Decline in partisan (strong vote+). Democratic overload/voterfatigue. Voter reg, 2002 act made it easier.
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What is differential Abstention?
Difference in numbers between supporter of one party compared to another, who decide not to vote.
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What else is differential Abstention used to describe?
The differences in turnout between one social economic group in comparison to another. Or ethnic minorities or choosing not to vote when another election/ vote is taking place.
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Other elections or votes?
Recalls, gubernational, congressional, presidential, propositions etc.
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Give 4 examples of differential Abstention/ Abstentionism?
1/3 voters 2008 didn’t vote in 2010 midterms, enthusiasm gap. More common in dem voters (lower income and younger). Low mid-terms, lower primaries. Undermines the winning candidates claim to mandate and legitimacy.
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How does differential Abstention relate to differential motivation?
Seeing an increase in the support of one party at the expense of another.
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What is realignment?
When those who have traditionally been loyal to one party change and realign their political allegiance.
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Reasons for realignment?
Racial desegregation, Gender issues, Ethnic group issues, Moral, Economic, Ideology isssues. Plus recencey short terms factors such as candidates, issues or previous performance by parties/ candidates.
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What is partisanship?
In favour of particular cause.
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Alignment?
Agreeance who they align with.
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Dealignment?
Disagreeance who they don’t agree with.
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What is significant about partisanship identification?
Partisan realignment is significant because it shows that voters may value short term (rational choice) influences on voting behaviour, such as policies, events and candidates
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continued
, which seem to be more democratic as the votes of the people are more considered and informed, therefore the winning representatives have a greater mandate and legitimacy.
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Give an example of realignment?
The New Deal Coalition is significant because it kept the Democrats in power for decades.
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what happemd
Roosevelt won the 1936 election by winning 46 states and 523 Electoral College votes, whereas his rival Alf Landon won only 2 states and 8 Electoral College votes. DEM AND REB COALITION. Yet after a breakup in the 1960s between the northern lib&s.con
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Who suggested realignment ?
ov key
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Who criticised realignment? “Critical realignment”wHAT
W Burnham 1970. His critiques of it
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W Burnham 1970. His critiques of it
1. Short lived but disruptive hard to predict.2. political intensity cause disunity. 3 ideological polarisation between and in parties. 4. Motivation over issues, political participation. 5 Support for 3rd parties. 6. Realignment takes 30-36 years
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What is political intensity and why can it cause disunity? Examples
Tough. Debates heading to NPC between parties and candidates. Hilary Clinton and Trump 2016 presidential elections, Trump with Ted Cruz in primary season 2016 lying ted, refused to endorse.
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What is ideological polarisation?
Difference in opinions on ideas. Bush far right views.
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What is political participation?
Electorate participating within the political system by turning out to vote or joining an interest group.
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Growth in support for third Party?
1968 George Wallace won 45 ec votes.American independent party.
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Why is realignment ever 30-36 yrs?
Burnham studied presidential elections. 2008 with the election of Obama democrats increased their majorities in both chambers of congress.
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What did Tod Lindberg argue in the Washington Post? And why?
“Now harder for the Republican presidential candidate to get to 50.1% than the democrat” Because democrats are heavily popular in more populated states.
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What did James Carville argue and who was he?
Mastermind behind the Clinton success of 1992 believed the dems go on to control congress for the next 40 years after building on their successes in 2006 midterms.
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why was he wrong?
Reps currently controlling congress, may change in the approaching 2018 midterm elections.
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What did Mayhew argue in 2004?
There are no long term patterns and that politics cannot be divided into generational spans as this ignores what may be specific to a particular election.
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Why was he right?
Democrats suffered a landslide defear in the house and lost seats in senate in 2010 midterms. Furthermore Obamas percentage of the popular vote fell to 51%. Mitt Romney beat Obama by 5% independent vote.
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What is the independent vote?
When someone has no allegiance to a party.
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How is this similar to a swing/ floating voter?
Not affiliated with a particular party and vote between party lines.
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How much of the electorate?
25%-30%. Yet as of May 18, 2016. A larger percentage of American voters identify as independents (39 percent of the electorate, according to Pew) than as Democrats (32 percent) or Republicans (23 percent).
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Why was the independent vote vital to predict?
PROVIDE AND ADVANTAGE. 2008 =29% of the electorate and gave Obama an 8% advantage splitting the vote 52% to 44% yet 2012 Romey 5% still lost.
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What is the independent vote significant of?
Dealignment. Makes elections more reliant on recency factors.
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What did the Washington post say in 2007 for the reasons of independent voting?
Disengagement not very interested in politics, deliberation classic swing voter, disillusionment no confidence in the two main parties and the dislocated turned off by polarisation of parties.
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Independent and third parties not a threat why?
Won 1.35 in 2008 & 2012. Yet won 5.6% in 2016, but in 1992 Ross Perot Reform Party of the United States of America, won 19% of the votes.
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What are the factors affecting voting behaviour?
Class/income, regional, religion, gender, ethnicity, party loyalty, candidate, issues.
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Class and income? Who do republicans and democrats appeal to more?
REP High income voters, more affluent, Starbucks voters those earning over $100,000 a year. Democrats appeal to low income voters, less affluent, – Wal-Mart voters (those earning under $15,000 a year)
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What is class and income vote down to?
Economic policies of the party.
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How did the class and income vote change in 2008?
Obama won a majority between the wealthy and poorer voters, level or ½% behind. Obama 6% over mccain over 200,000. Due to the state of the economy, built a core dem vote held by the middle class and wealthy.
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How did the class and income vote change in 2012?
Low/moderate income for Obama. Support fell.
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2012 less than 30,000
21% of the electorate Obama won 60%
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2012 30,000-50,00
21% of electorate Obama won 57%
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2012 50,000 to 99,999
31% OF E Romney led with 52% to 46
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2012 100,000 TO 199,999
21% ROMNEY LED WITH 54% TO 445
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2012 OVER 200,000
6% OF E ROMNEY AHEAD 52% TO 47%
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WHY IS REGIONALL VOTING IMPORTANT?
BECAUSE OF THEE SIZE OF THE US AND ITS DIVERSITY MELTING POT.
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DEMOCRAT REGION?
NORTH EAST DECLINING AREAS POPULATION SHIFT, CITIES/INDUSTRIAL STATES. WEST COST ALSO SUPPORTS
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HOW MANY CITIES SUPPORT DEMOCRAT?
60%
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DEMOCRAT CITIES
MASSACHUSETTS, NY, CALIFORNIA, ILLINOIS
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What did the 2010 cencus reappointment mean for the democrats?
Popilation shift ne states losing ec votes to the south. NY LOST 2 EC VOTES TEXAS GAINED 4.
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How did dem supporters realign in the republican south?
2000 bush jrn won every south state and gore couldn’t win own home state own home state tenesse. Further disrupted in landslide elections, ie Regean. Consideration of FDR. REALIGNMENT OF THE SOUTH .
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DISRUPTTED BY? EXAMPLE
INDIVIDUAL CANDIDATES. Obama captured ec votes in 2008 of red votes florida, ncaraolina, new mexico, colarado, neveda.
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REPUBLICAN REGION?
Solid south growing area. Mountain states rural and surburban, texas, south Carolina, Georgia
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Swing states?
midwest is a battle ground, traditionally whoever wins Missouri wins Whitehouse. OHIO, FLORIDA MICHIGAN
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GENDER GAP?
Gender gap, the gap between the support given to a candidate by women and the support given to a candidate by men reflected in social, political, intellectual, cultural, or economic attainments or attitudes.
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The gender gap can widen or narrow at different elections?
The gender gap can widen or narrow at different elections according to candidates, issues and events.In 1992 there was only a 4 percentage point difference in the male and female vote due to Clinton, Bush and Perot being fairly moderate candidates.
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The widening or narrowing of the gender gap is significant because?
is harder for parties to predict voting behaviour, therefore they may get their messages to the electorate wrong and be less likely to win the election.
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WOMEN?
are more likely to vote for the Democrats. higher turnout. Parties have tried to target women voters. REGISTERED VOTERS.
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MEN?
Opposite. Republican support.
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Reasons for opposition?
Women care and more supportive over abortion, environment, gun control, healtcare (emphasis).MEN WHITE GUN OWNERS
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How do republicans try to appeal to women?
Targeted groups of women voters were “soccer moms” in 1992 and “security moms” in 2004.“Hockey moms” and “walmart moms” were key targets in 2008.This was one of the reasons by Sarah Palin was chosen to be John McCain’s running mate in 2008,
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why did sarah palin to attract women back fire?
because Palin alienated more women due to her radical ideas.
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What is this significant for?
Representative democracy this may cause the needs of other groups to be neglected, which may undermine pluralist democracy.
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Republicans hindered by?
2012 Romney not helped by controversial remarks on abortion/**** and trumps similar remarks in 2016.
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Women voters having a higher turnout is significant?
because policies that are highly supported by women arguably have a greater mandate and legitimacy, therefore it would arguably be more democratic to implement these policies.
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WOMEN-MEN 2016 TURNOUT?
53% WOMEN TO 47%
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WOMEN TO MEN 2012 TURNOUT?
63.7% of women voted in 2012 compared to 59.8% of men.
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WOMEN TO MEN TURNOUT 2008?
WOMEN TO MEN TURNOUT 2008?
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ETHNICITY AS A FACTOR?
Dems = Black vote = never less than 83% in 08 = 95 Solideristic support = civil right 95% of black men = Obama SURGE OF OPTISIM
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AFRICAN AMERICAN LOW TURNOUT IN SOUTH?
TOO DANGEROUS
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HISPANICS?
SLEEPING GIANT, LARGEST ETHINC MINORITY 2/3 DEM, REP APPEAL. CONCENTRATED IN KEY STATTES FLORIDA. SPANISH SPEAKING. VOTER OVER ABORTION 70% CATHOLIC. 2008 OBAMA WON 66/ OF VOTE. MOBALAISED OVER ISSUES OF IMMIGARATION IN 2008 WITH REPUBLICANS.
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HISPANIC MORE IMPORTANT?
INFLUENTIAL GROUP. BECOMING NATURALISED AMERICANS. 2042 WHITE MINORITY. BUSH APPEAL.
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AGE AS A FACTOR?
Mixed evidence, hard to determine any particular correlation.Young = dem. Old = repb. Millenials becoming a descisive factor, more politically active. Obama 65 young up on Kerry 52.
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Why young participate more?
Grown in a more tolerant society, regardless of race, gender, age.
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Young look at
More radical close the cap between rich and poor job focus.
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Old look at
Wealthier, tends to vote for party protecting. More likely to vote and party identification.
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Whats the emphasis on the grey vote?
Both parties, affecting older people medicare/pensions.
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Religion as a factor?
WASPS STRONGLY REBULICAN PROTESTANTSCATHOLICS IRISH ITALIAN HISPANIC DEMOCRATS. MORE REPUBLICAN OVER BELIEFS OF ABORTING AND GAY MARRIAGE.
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JEWISH?
DEMOCCRATIC HEART LAND, SUPPORT PRO-ISREAEL CANDIDATES. KEY IN NY AND FLORIDA. 2012 69% OBAMA 2008 78% DESPITE OFFENCE OVER PALESTEIAN
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Why does Voting Behaviour absorb a great deal of time for political parties in America?

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They put much effort into analysing VB patterns and predicting their voter base.

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Why do political parties attempt to analyse their vote base?

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Card 4

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When referring to voting habits what can we say?

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What is VAP?

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