Thinking fast and slow

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What are the two systems?
System 1- thinks fast, automatically, intuitively, involuntary, effortless and associative. System 2 is slow, deliberate, explicit, reasoning and computing, focussing and concentrating
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What does system 1 operate on?
heuristics
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What does thinking slow do to our bodies?
our pupils dilate, and we have limited attention to process other things. To manage complicated tasks
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Why do we think fast?
to avoid expending unnecessary energy resources, this is the path of least resistance. We think fast to accomplish routine tasks.
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When do we let system 1 take over intuitively and impulsively?
when we are hungry, tired and mentally exhausted. Self control shrinks
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What is priming?
We are not objective rational thinkers. Things influence our judgement, attitude and behaviour that we are not aware of.
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What is the ideomotor effect?
things outside our conscious awareness can influence how we think. walking slow/The florida effect (Adler)/SO_P or soup or soap
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What is cognitive ease?
things that are easier to process, that are familiar and dont require much thought are seemed more true.
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what could simulate cognitive ease?
if it comes from a source you trust and like, or linked by association to other beliefs that you hold
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What does familiarity lead to?
things are familiar seem more true and if people repeat their message enough times, we tend to believe it.
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What is associative coherence?
We confuse causality with correlation, and make more out of coincidence that statistically warranted. Try to make sense of the world by making associations between circumstances. We assume intention 'it was meant to happen' . assign cause
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What is confirmation bias?
search for and find confirming evidence for a believe while overlooking counter examples
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What is the halo effect?
tendency to like or dislike everything about a person, including things you didnt obseve, based on one positive/negative attribute. order of adjectives
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what is WYSIATI?
what you see is all there is. do not lean on data that is based on impressions or institutions, stay focussed on the hard data before. base decision on critical thinking and not subjective feelings
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what is the mental shotgun?
overcomputing details, process more than we need too. evaluating a decision without distinguishing which variables are most important
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What does system 1 rely on in judements?
intuitition. We fail to accurately calculate sums, and instead rely on unreliable intuitive averages. Rely on intensity matching
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What is substition?
replace a harder qs with a simpler question. never get round to answering the harder one. - what is happiness.. what is my mood right now.
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how does affect influence judgement
emotions influence judgement. we let our emotional preferences cloud judgement and then over or under estimate risks and benefits. Let their likes/dislikes determine beliefs about world
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What is the law of small numbers?
we make decisions on insufficient (small data). Small samples are prone to extreme outcomes. lend small samples more credentials.
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What is confidence over doubt?
we make connections where non exist. S1 supress ambiguity and doubt by constructing coherent stories from scraps of data. Bias to believing. attribute causality where non exist. Reject random and accept a rule
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What are anchors?
making incorrect estimates due to previously heard quantities. Estimate age of death, drivign speed
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What is the availability heuristic?
The ease to which we retrieve an answe influences the size of the anser. Prone to give bigger answers to questions that are easier to retrieve. also easier to retrieve if they have an emotional personal experience. over or under estimate the freq
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What are availability cascades?
overreacting to a minor problem simply because we hear a disproportionate number of negative news stories than positive ones. Negative feedback loop is set in motion- the emotional tail wags the rational dog
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what is representitiveness?
evaluating a person, place or thing on how much it resembles something else without taking into account other salient factors (probability, base rates, sampling sizes)
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What is the conjunction fallacy? The Linda problem- less is more?
committing a logical fallacy, when our intuition favours plausbile but improbable over implausable and proabable. More likely she will be a bank teller than a bank teller and feminist (2 characteristics)
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What causes trump statistics?
when given statistical data and a story we overlook the statistics and tend to go with the story. favour explanatory power over data.
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What is regression to the mean?
when we remove causal explanations and consider statistics we observe regularities. Thing tend to even out. NOT causal. tend to see causes that dont exist
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What are intuitive predictions?
conclusions drawn with strong intuitiion feed overconfidence. if it feels right does not make it right.
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What is the narrative fallacy?
attempt to make sense of the world we often create explanatory stories af the past that shape views and expectations of future. assigns larger roles to talent than to luck
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What is hindsight bias?
creeping determinism, knew it all along effect, produces robust cognitive illusion. blame decision makers for bad decision
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what is the illusion of validity?
basing the validity of a judgement on the subjective experience of confidence rather than objective facts. Confidence is no measure of accuracy
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what is ignorance of algorithms?
rely on intuitive judgements for important decisions if an algorithm is available that will make fewer mistakes. Overlook statistical information and favour gut feelings.
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what is intuition?
a matter of recognition. being so familiar with something we arrive at judgements quickly. Recogntiion over long periods of exposure, or quickly in a highly emotional event. intuition is a pattern of recognition
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should be trust experts?
experts can overlook what they do not know. Unless they are in an environment that is regulary and.
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What is the planning falacy?
taking a risky project and being confident with the base case scenario without seriously considering the worst case. underestimating the duration it will take. decide based on delusional optimism rather than rationality
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what is the optimisitc bias?
we negelct the facts, others failures. We beleive that the outcome of our acheivements lies entirely in our own hands whilst neglecting the luck factor.No calculating the odds.
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What did clark & Hatfield (1989) find?
They asked men and women across campus if they would date, go to their appartment or to bed. Over 50% women said yes to date. over 50% men said yes to all.
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What did flynn and lake (2008) find?
they overestimated how many people would say yes to their request of fill a qs, borrow cell phone or make a donation. overestimate by 50%
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What did flynn and bohns (2010) find?
that help seekers overestimate the liklihood that people will ask them for help. Underestimating embarrassment
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what cultural differences are there in asking?
Annette lareau found that those from high earning and SES backgrounds were more likely to ask for help and get things in return than less SES children. Feel more comfortable as their parents do this
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what types of events could occur from not asking questions?
medical errors and plane crashes (PI)
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What is power index?
defined by Hofstede (1960s), the less powerful accept unequal power disribution. Malaysia HIGH, Austria LOW. Defined from below. - dont ask qs
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what did burger (2001) find?
fleeting attraction on compliance. When ppt asked to pick set of ADJ for self then saw set for someone else, sim/di**im, rate how much they liked. Then ** asked to read e**ay- more compliance if like/more similar- automatic heuristic. S1
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What is the Pique technique?- Santos & Pratkanis (1994)
asking for unusual amount- spare 17cents (low) or 37cents (high), more money than for a typical amount (1/4). piqued interest in subjects- mindful cognition
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What is placebic information? Langer (1978)
photocopier queue, asked to jump the line, or 'because I have to make copies' or 'beacuse im in a rush'- written/orally both showed compliance. given reason. compliance.
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what did mcCabe (2008) find?
when referencing brain imaging and scans (stimulating information) it increased ratings of scientific reasoning and more beleivable.
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What is bandaura social cognition theory?
observing, modelling and imitating, the person, the environemtn and behaviour all interact with each other (cogntions, actions and social culture)
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What is the theory of reasoned action? Ajzen (1967)
attitutudes (beleifs) + social norms (social proof) --> intentions --> behaviour
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What is the theory of planned behaviour? Ajzen (1991)
attitude+subjective norm+perceived behavioural control--> intention --> behaviour
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What did edward bernay do?
torches of freedom (women smoking on the easter parade in 1929) social modelling. Defined a hearty breakfast as bacon and eggs- misleading, propoganda
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What is the availability heuristic?
when things come to mind easily, we assign greater importance to them (ease of retrieval)
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What did Tversky + Amos (1973) do?
asked ppt if there are more words that start with a K or more words with K as the third letter. Easier to think of letters that begin with K, but this isnt correct
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What did schwarz (1991) find?
asked for either 6 or 12 assertive or non assertive examples, those who thought of 12 rated self as less assertive than 6.
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What is agenda setting theory? Lyengar peters (1982)
form of availabilty. news influences percieved importance of issues by repeating or emphisising (greater weight)- influence salience. No unbiased sotry. create artificial social norms. confirmation bias- shown someting which confirms idea
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what did wanta, golan, lee (2004) do?
asked ppt to rank countries of vital interest. correlated with prominent newscasts
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What is the werther effect?
book where the hero commits suicide, then a rise of suicide attemps took place (modelling and theory of planned behaiviour)- availability.
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What is the cogntive reflection task?
bat and ball, lillypads, widgets (5c, 5 mins and 47 days) answer springs to mind impulsively, incorrect intuitive S1. Availability. Limbic brain.. Only think after beleifs. Stroop task- train system 1 to create association
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what did the gallup world poll (2003) show?
money isnt happiness. GDP and life satisfaction correlated. WAY you think that is important. No relationship after 20,000. lots of variation
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what is the default and status quo bias?
preference for the current state of affairs or the previous decision. Saves lives if automatically donate. System 1. emotional bias
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what is the confirmation bias?
searh for information that confirms pre-existing beleifs.
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what is the wason card selection task?
E 4 K 7, beleifs come first. choose the card to confirm beleifs rather than disprove it
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what is the halo effect?
better they look on one attribute, then better they will be judged after. impression influences thoughts
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What did lord, ross, and lepper (1979 find?
biased assimilation and polarisation- gave same amount of info for and against capital punishment, then asked beleifs. depend on prior beleif influencing. expect neutrality. More info makes you stupid.
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What is the yale attitude approach, Hovland (1953)?
WHO said WHAT to WHOM, the source, the message, the audience matters.
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what matters about the source?
credibility, attractivenss, trustworthy, social proof, norms, representitveness
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what matters about the message?
1 or 2 sided, primacy/recency/ repetition to increase the validity, stats (S2), placebic information. ELM
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what matters about the audience?
culuure, route to persuisiion, age (younger thatn 25 more susceptible), likeable, similarity altercasting (share similar qualities/attributes). Expertise/authority, cogntive load, mood
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What is the elaboration liklohood model? Cacippo (1979)?
persuasive communication--> ability and motivation to pay attention? - yes- S2- attitude change OR No- S1- attitude change
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what did the french smoking advert do?
created association between vape and dr white lab coats. most adds appeal to S1, association or belief pattern manipulates semantics in the head. Sex, money, food, attractivenss
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when should you use a two sided message?
if the audience cares then take the central route S2. state opposing view then INNOCULATE and refute with other side. use one sided message when audience is uninformed
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what did chaiken (1989) find?
two routes to persuision- systematic (heuristic)- minimise cogntive resources, and central route- testimonial, sequential, problem-solution, 2 sided, refutation, speciic
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what did dale carnegie find about winning friends and influencing people?
what we invest in effortfully we get automatically. invest in understanding others. put effort into it, smile, listen, talk, sincere, make them feel important
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What is dunbars number? 1992
as neocortex size increases, so does group size. maximum group size for human is 100-150 (maintain social bonds). Social species, relly on others for decisions. Not correlated with diet or teritory. Social proof
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What is in group thinking?
the in group is what we belong to, take care of. The outgroup is a potential threat. In-group bias- favours/prioritise/prefer own group even when definition is arbitrary.
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What is social identity theory- Tajfel (1981)
who you think you are from those around you, we are defined by our social groups.
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What did tajfel (1970) find in the minmal group studies?
minimal possibe reason to belong, availability becomes salient. Bristol school boys, paintings and preferences = MAXIMISE group differeces in rewards.
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What were the robbers cave experiments? Sherif (1954)
create groups (norms develop), then put them together which introduces (competition), then introduce a superordinate goal (need to co operate) = reduce conflict. Doesnt take much to introduce ingroup/outfgroup conflict
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What was the Salganik cultural market? (2006)
unpredictibility and inequality. manipulate knowledge of what others choose (gini coefficient). harder to predict with social information because it could be ANY that the first person chooses. Driven by social environment. When inverting- lead astray
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What did the Asch (1995) studies show?
conform to the group to be liked. confed and **, line length judgements. social proof, go along with others. size of the majoruty only matters a few (3)- silent majority- werther effect- copycat suicide
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what is the bystander effect?
kitty genovese- no one helped, everyone discounted it, S1- think others will help
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What did daley and latane (1968) find?- diffusion of responsibility
fire in room (smoke), less response with others, define it as NOT emergency. microphone and epileptic fit (less responsive the more people)
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what is pluralistic ignorance?
no one believes it but everyone thinks everyone does. need to fight uncertainty, put someone in charge, point, assign jobs to people. Driven by S1
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what is the principle of reciprocity?
social norm, someone does something for you, you are obliged to do something for them. (sanctions otherwise).
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what did regen (1971) find- reciprocity?
when sharing a coke with another ppts, then ask them to buy raffle tickets, more said yes, compliance.
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what is the prisoners dilemma?
decision based on what you think other will do. personal advantage to be selfish. people actually co-operate in real life. best to ***-for tat (cooperate then copy them), reciprocity.
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what do we co-operate?
social co-operation is rewarding in brains, fMRI, activation in reward centers, increase dopamine. context influence decisions
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what about the sumo wrestler game?
build trust produces better outcome
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what is the evolution of alturism?
kin selection- genetic basis to be kind and reciprocity. Reciporocity- help those who will help us in the future. like those who like us.
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what is the gillette model?
loss leader, give away the razor but need to buy the blades, make a profit out of this.
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what is the thats not all technique? Burger 1986?
increase compliance, by improving the deal! concessions, price, now we'ere selling it cheaper, or includes more things
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what did milgram find in his obediance studies? (1963)
only need an authority figure in white coat. 63% of ** administered the highest shock. Didnt speak out. 70% administered 150V
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what did bickman (1974) find?
milkman, guard and a civillian, asked to pick up bag, give dime, more likely to respond if they are inuniform. MORE compliance with guard
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What did price and Stone find (2004)- power of confidence?
people use confidence as a way of evaluating/judging. Confidence is a q. 2 advisors (green/brown) with predictions and confience levels of outcomes of stocks. prefer advisor with extrme confidence even if wrong
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what did joseph rodzevik, 2011 find? (weight)
guess weight of individual and assign confidence level to range of weight. Choose advisor who is more confident (even if not right) more confidence - wrong
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What did Engelman (2009) find?
offload the calculation from individual brain when there is an advisor present. S1. BUT when there is no advisor then you see activation in areas that would do the calculation- S2. imagining at same time.
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what is the problem with confident dc?
they might get the statistics wrong. HIV tests were only 50% valid, and many people committed suicide. best to get a second opinion/tests
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what is the base rate fallacy?
generic information. Mind ususally ignores general information and focusses on the specific.
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what is the natural fallacy?
saying 1 out of 10 is more effective than 10%, we are better at frequencies than probablitites. Bad presentation of medical statistics. Risks of intervention- poor decision
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what is familiarity?
what we see more often we like it more/ Authority is familiar, social proof what others are doing
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what did zajonc (1968) find? mere exposure?
chinese characters shown to them, then asked to rate them after, found those they had seen before they liked more. More favourable. Student in the black bag- liking over time becuse it increases familiarity
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what is the mermaid effect?
more a man sees a women = more attractive
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What did peskin (2004) find?
24 faces, some seen just once, or some seen six times, those seen more = more attractive (typical faces were higher as well)
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what did fang (2007) find?
banner ads increase familiarity and increase liking leading to spending money
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What did hills and todd (2008) find?
find someone who shares your threshold of traits (like those who are like us) then marry them (threshold decreases with age), if someone else comes along who has more traits then divorce the previous one and marry new one. Strart with high expectatio
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What did weaver (2007) find?
heard same message by one person three times or once by three people. one person could sound like a chrous. mere exposure.
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what did parker (2011) find?
buy wines that are more scarce- social proof (indicative of value).
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what is more effective, limited time or quantity?
limited quantity is more effective.
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what did hovland (1951) find about authority messenger?
read article on nuclear submarines and more likely to beleive it if it came from credible source Dr. rather than soviet. dr carries weight automatically.
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What did Todman & Gleitman (1949) find? vicarious trial and error?
learn vicariously/similate (know what it feels like so dont need to do it to find out) imagine outcome. Rats in T cage were shocked in the dark room, then experienced this in imagination
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What is episodic future thinking?
in the hippocampus there are p (place cells) that are associated with where you are the room (Pezzulo, 2015)- embodied perspective. can see rats dream, similating going down routes as their p cells light up and reward centers where the food would be
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What is the simulation theory of cogntion? Hesslow (2002) and Lotze (2003)
p self- where you are. q sel (imagined self)- vicariously. brain imagining in real and cogntive piano performance- same areas light up. cognition creates capactity for simulation
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what is the naive inhibition model?
removed inhibition between the p self and the q self and actual self. so dont know if you really did something or not. NEED to know the difference otherwise creates error. memory that wasnt really there.
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what is the self-actualising model?
having a sense of self and reflective self. Neocortex grew so could encode exp. The p self and the q self merge to the actual self
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what is bems self perception theory (1972)?
behaviour CAUSES the attitude. percieve our own behaviour which leads us to form attitudes consistent with the behaviour. We do something- creates attitude.
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what is commitment and availability?
the first thing that comes to mind we are committed to
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what is the self-fulfilling prophecy? Merton (1947)
confirmation bias. definiition of a situation become integral part of situation affects development. need committment to create a self you want to be- what we invest in effortfully we get automatically.
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what is lowballing?
told youre getting a really good deal and commit self to it, then change the terms. (put money down before) commited to it
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what is the foot in the door, freedman and fraser (1966)?
homeowners asked to sign petition (commitment), then later asked to put a sign in their garden- more consistency, commtment.
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what did pliner 1974 find?
those who were given lapel pins to wear, then went on to donating to the charity- consistency and commited
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what did dickinson (1992) find?
cogntive dissonance is uncomfortable so want to solve it. water conservation, asked if they were in favour of it. then they reduced their shower time (mindful commitment)
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what did greenward (1987) find?
those who were asked if they were going to vote, had better turn out and then actually voted.
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What is the manded altercasting effect?- miller 1975
attribution effect- to get someone to do something, tell them they are that certain attribute. try to get children to tidy a classroom, attribute it to their identity 'you are tidy', assign behaviour, internalise, central route.
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what did bryan (2013) do?
'please dont be a cheater'- undesirable, want to maintain a good self-image
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what did carol dweck discover about mindsets?
a fixed mindset- beleive intelligence is fixed traits. Growth mindset- most basic abilities can be developed through dedication and hard work. Love leraning, resilliance (no boundires/like science, not fixed)
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what is the standford prison experiement? Zimbardo (2007)
24 men assigned guard or prisoner roles. Attribution- take on these roles and starting acting like this. Context guides behaviour. become the role
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what is the lucifer effect?
good people can be induced into behaving in bad ways
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what is the wisdom of the crowd? Andrew king (2011)
collective informaiton will be more true than the individuals. (how much do I weigh) best estimate of previous guesses.
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what did christakis & fowler (2007) find about social contagion?
if in close proximity to an obese person then your chances of becoming obese increase. Depends on social distance between alter and ego. also applies to smoking
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what is social rank theory by Gordon brown?
look at social network to see how own behaviour compares. Drink more or less
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what is social identity maintenance model by Turney & pratkanis (1998)
collective effort to maintain a shared positive view of functionality of the group in face of the threat. collective threat- +group image-identity protection- defence decision making
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what is group think?
conformity in a group, leads to danger and dysfunctional behaviours. illusion of invulnerability. take on identity of the group
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what does janis (1972) attribute to group think?
lack of norms, immortality of the group, overestimate the group, ad hoc decision, time pressure, homogenous, close mindedness, stress, rationalisation, low self esteem, insulation of group from outside information. leader becomes figure, no alternati
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why arent we all the same?
environment is different in diff environments- heterogenous. AND frequency dependant selection- common varitety has lower fitness than less common (low fequncy strategies have the advantage)
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what does the escalation game show?
least used is the best strategy (dont do what others are doing)
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what did cialdini 2007 find?-
italian islanders scored lower on introversion/opnness than recent migrants.
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what about the 7R gene?
the 7R allele of DRD4 gene is associated with novelty and extravesion (also associated with ADHD)- novelty seeking, gene associated with migration. Out of africa hypotheiss.
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what did killingback (1996) find- escalation game?
always win unless both die. strategy at one location changes if the neighbouring strategies are doing better. Space adds to evolutionary game theory
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what about scroungers and producers?
if lots of scroungers then it pays to be a producer
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what is the evolution of personality? David nettle (2006)
frequency dependent selection, trade-offs, big 5 is a result of a trade off between different fitness costs and benefits
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what costs and benefits does extraversion incur?
mating sucess, at the expense of taking risks
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what about neuroticism?
avoids danger, vigalence, but can lead to stress and depressions
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openness?
create psychosis
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what is innoculation theory? McGuire & papageorgis (1961)
immunisation, weakened version then becomes stronger. CENTRAL route to persuision. Forces effortful thikning creating a stronger attitude for self. two sided argument. (mcalister 1980 and smoking)
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what is the significance of violent deaths in prehistoric society?
change in behviour and environements. homocide decrease and a humanitarian revolution appeared. Less violence but more EMPATHY. writing on rights increased and so did book production. persepctive taking from others
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what did Kid (2013) find?
reading lead to better cogntive and affective performance and theory of mind (perspective taking) for litary fiction
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what did oatley (2008) find?
models the social world, so can simulate and facilitate understanding of others- empathy. reading improves theory of mind
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what did pinker find about perspective?
humanitarian revolution means that we can see the world through others. the ingroup is increaseing in size, becoming an extension of self. simulates what its like to be someone else (reading)
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what are goldenbegs ad templates?
make analogy through pictures, extreme situations, consequnces, interactive, comparative
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what is negotiating?
group decision making, reciprocity with the collective. compromise the conflict of interest. outcomes depend on ALL parties. value of your decision depends on others (influence others in probablistic ways) One way for one wont work on another
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what are the qualitites of the best negotiator?
compromise, rapport, patient, honest, known value- maximise outcomes
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what is a BATNA?
best alternative to a negotiated agreement- the lowest and highest offer. So you know when to walk away. Use research to find out what the others BATNA is
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what is the zone of possible agreemnet?
this isnt always there but negotiation takes place here
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what is the reservation price/indiffereent point?
worst thing youre willing to take
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what is the endowment effect?
more value on the things we own
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waht about value?
create value together (mutually satisfying)
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what is the purpose of asking questions?- Langer
when, what, where, why to prevent lying, ask for concessions, the best price, ask if they would take... let them talk, find the area to negotiate and placebic information
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what are ancors?
reference points, where you can make adjustments accordingly. this is the first offer, if they make it, immediately discount it- too explensive. unless you know the value, dont give first answe
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what is the zero sum fallacy?
one players loss is another gain. not you AGAINST them. you both create value together. ask qs, how much they value it and why
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what is logrolling?
trading across a multiple of things, many things on the table to trade. I need XYZ
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what are contingency contracts?
If you give me X, I will do XYZ. If X happens, then deal changes to Y. (insurance) and 30 day money back guarentee
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what is the bandwagon effect?
everyone else it doing it, do it because others are. Goldstein (towels) social proof. inform guests that others are using towels, use others to guide own behaviour
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what did Taylor butterfield discover? 1993
got people to sign a petition against drink driving, and then 6 weeks later when intoxicated asked to call a taxi for them instead of driving they said yes!
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what emotion makes the best decisions? Lerner, 2004
emotionally neutral decision makers make better decisions. Sad people pay more. Emotionality impairs discrimination
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how should you manage gains?
when you are selling, it is best to diassgregate the gains (looks like more), seat, weels, brakes. take them apart and count them. when you are giving bad news then you aggregate the losses and share all bad news at once,
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what is the contrast effect?
show house A for a price, then show house B which is much better but for the same price.
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what is commitment consistency?
always have a higher authority figure- a spouse or a partner that you have to talk to becfore making the final decision.
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what is framing?
the reference point- glass 1/2 full or glass 1/2 empty
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what did alba 1989 find about frequency topping quality?
comparing two stores, most cheaper or few cheaper. MERE number of perceived positive attributes leads to perceived sense of higher quality. majority rulef
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What does system 1 operate on?

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heuristics

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What does thinking slow do to our bodies?

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Why do we think fast?

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When do we let system 1 take over intuitively and impulsively?

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