Predication, Impact and Management

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What is prediction?
Knowing when and where a natural hazard will strike on a spatial and temporal scale. This can be acted on in terms of evacuation.
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What is forecasting?
Less precise than predicting, forecasting gives the percentage chance of a hazard occurring in a time frame, eg. 25% chance of earthquake magnitude 7.0 in the next 20 years.
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Can earthquakes be predicted?
No, high risk areas can be identified through forecasting, and areas at risk from ground shaking and liquefaction can be seen (land use zoning).
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Can volcanic eruptions be predicted?
Yes, equipment can measure changes to magma chambers as they fill and bulges as magma rises. Gas emissions and minor earthquakes from magma movement are also recorded.
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Can tsunamis be predicted?
Partly, earthquakes which cause tsunamis cannot be predicted, but they can be detected quickly once they occur and ocean monitoring equipment can detect tsunamis in open seas, to allow for evacuation.
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What are the stages of the hazard management cycle?
Response, recovery, mitigation, preparedness
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What is 'response'?
Immediate help in the form of rescue to save lives and aid to keep people alive, through emergency shelters, food and water.
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What is 'recovery'?
Rebuilding infrastructure and services, rehabilitating injured peoples and their lives. This is the returning to normal phase and depends on magnitude, development, governance, external help.
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What is 'mitigation'?
Acting to reduce the scale of the next disaster through land use zoning and hazard resistant buildings and infrastructure.
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What is 'preparedness'?
Community education and resilience building including how to act before, during and after a disaster and installing prediction and evacuation technology.
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What is Park's Model?
A simple visual model of the impacts of a disaster and how well it has been responded to. It shows whether an area has improved after a disaster or become worse off.
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Other cards in this set

Card 2

Front

What is forecasting?

Back

Less precise than predicting, forecasting gives the percentage chance of a hazard occurring in a time frame, eg. 25% chance of earthquake magnitude 7.0 in the next 20 years.

Card 3

Front

Can earthquakes be predicted?

Back

Preview of the front of card 3

Card 4

Front

Can volcanic eruptions be predicted?

Back

Preview of the front of card 4

Card 5

Front

Can tsunamis be predicted?

Back

Preview of the front of card 5
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