according to betts is failure political and psychological or organisational
political and psychological
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What are the three ways Betts conceptualises intelligence failures?
Failures in Perspective (failure vs success) Pathologies of communication (most common reason for failure) Paradox of perception (preconceptions hinder effective analysis)
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What is betts's issue about attack warnings
Attack Warning (timely predictions of attacks and selling these predictions to decision makers)
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What are the three barriers to good analyses
Ambiguity of evidence, Ambivalence of Judgement, Atrophy of Reforms
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Ambiguity of evidence is
due to lack of information, or excess information (Wohlstetter's noise)
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Ambivalence of Judgement is
(tendency to err on the side of caution when evidence is sparse and thereby produce intelligence that is vague and not definitive- may be used to support preconceived decisions)
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Atrophy of Reforms
reforms complicate operations, strain resources and often revert to the same mistakes
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what does betts say about organisational solutions
by reducing one vulnerability they increase another
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what are examples of failed organisational solutions
you end up treating every threat as genuine and serious thereby sensitivity to actual threats decrease
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What is the problem of assuming the worst after an intelligence failure?
you end up treating every threat as genuine and serious thereby sensitivity to actual threats decrease
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what does betts suggest as the ideal solution?
a director of intelligence who is both an intellectual and professional analyst as well as a skilful politician
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What do Gill an Pythian say about the nature of intelligence failures
They are not monocausal or confined to just one point in the cycle
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Give an example of what Loch Johnson describes as the 'disregard of objective intelligence'
Stalin - Operation Barbarossa
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Why were warnings about Vietnam ignored by policy makers?
DCI John McCone believed in Domino theory - did not bring dissenting analyses to policy makers - McCone frozen out by LBJ when he did dissent
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what are the four limits of intelligence
not a crystal ball - dominant assumptions (domino theory or WMD etc) Unrealistic expectations - structural fragmentation
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According to Gregory Treverton what are the five forms of politicisation in intelligence
Direct Pressure - The house line - cherry picking - question asking (leading questions with a desired answer) - shared mindset (groupthink)
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Other cards in this set
Card 2
Front
in what order does betts say goes from least blame to most blame
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