GOVP1 - Participation and Voting Behaviour - Part 2

What are the long term factors affecting voting behaviour?
Age :: Gender :: Ethnicity :: Region ::
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What did Pulzer say in 1967?
"There is overwhelming evidence that women are more conservatively inclined than men"
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Why were women more likely to vote Tory before 1979?
Women's role was 'in the home' and they were more likely to vote for Tory family values and Law and Order.
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Why has the gender gap closed since 1979?
Society - Changing roles of women : New Labour - Minister for women and All women's short list.
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How many more women voted for the Tories than men in 1974?
7%
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How many more men voted for the Tories than men in 2015?
1%
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Why were men more likely to vote Labour before 1979?
Men were more likely to vote with their class and unions in voting Labour.
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How many more men voted for Labour than men in 1974?
5%
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How many more women voted for Labour than men in 2015?
3%
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What is class?
A group of individuals who share a common position within society.
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Class A
Higher professional, managerial, administrative
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Class B
Intermediate professional, managerial, admin
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Class C1
Supervisory, clerical, other non-manual
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Class C2
Skilled manual
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Class D
semi-skilled and unskilled manual
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Class E
Casual workers, people reliant on state benefits.
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What did Pulzer conclude in the 1960s for class?
"Class is the basis of British party politics, all else is embellishment and detail'
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Between 1955 and 1996, what sector has seen an increase in unemployment, and by what %
Service sector has seen an increase from 36% to 76% of all workers.
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Between 1955 and 1996, what sector has seen a big decrease in workers and by what %.
Manufacturing employment has seen a decrease from 43% to 18%
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Why has Labour's core support become less easy to identify?
Privatization ::
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How many more people were self-employed in 1990 to compared to 1979?
75%
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What did The Housing Act 1980 do?
"Right-to-buy"
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What did Privatizataion under Thatcher do to the working classes?
They could buy shares and they felt "embourgeoisement"
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What affect did embourgeoisement have on voting behavior?
It caused people to identify more with the Tory party - Seeing 18 years of Tory rule from 1979 to 1997?
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What did David Denver claim about the 1997 New Labour election victory?
"It proved long term factors such as class were no longer as important"
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How many ABC1 voted for Tory compared to Labour in 1983?
55% to 16%
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How many ABC1 voted for Tory compared to Labour in 1997
38% to 34%
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Why band did Thatcher attract, and what were they called?
C2 "working class Tories"
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What % of the population was non white in 1996?
3%
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What % of the population was non white in 2009?
16.7%
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What did Coxall and Robins estimate in the early 1990s?
There were 50 seats that had a majority smaller then that of the population of ethnic minorities in them.
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Where do ethnic minorities normally vote?
Labour
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What % of BME voted for Labour in the 2015 General Election compared to the Tories?
65% to 23%
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Why did Labour MP Oona King lose her seat in 2005?
High muslin population in the area after Iraq War. - Issue Voting and ethnicity voting link
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Why is ethnicity not a clear cut link for voting behaviour?
Many BME have lower income so are more likely to vote Labour anyway.
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Why are older people more likely to vote Tory?
Policies that favour old people - Introduced the triple lock on pensions in coalition Government.
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Why are young people more likley to vote Labour?
Policies that favour the young - In 2015 pledged to cut tuition fees to £6000
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What has caused young people to drift away from Labour in recent years?
Iraq war, original introduction of top-up fees by 2010.
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What % of support dropped for Labour amongst 18 to 24 year olds?
7%
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What is the North-South divide?
The division between the economy / workers in the north and south
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Why did the north suffer during the 1980s?
The decline of key industries such as mining and manufacturing.
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Why did the south do well in the 1980s?
The increase in the service and financial sectors, The City in London.
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How many seats did Labour achieve in the north in 1997?
46
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How many seats did the Tories achieve in the north in 1997?
7
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How many seats did the Tories achieve in the south east in 1997?
73
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How many seats did Labour achieve in the south east in 1997?
36
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What is The Primacy Model?
This suggests that long-term factors are more important than short-term factors in determining voting behaviour.
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What is The Recency Model?
Short term factors are more important than long term factors.
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What is The Party Identification Theory?
People learn who to vote for via their growing up - Family / Friends / School
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How many people said they identify 'very strongly' with Labour or Tories in 1964?
45%
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How many people said they identify 'very strongly' with Labour or Tories in 1979?
21%
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How many people said they identify 'very strongly' with Labour or Tories in 2001?
13%
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What is The Sociological Theory?
People vote according to their social class.
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What is class dealignment?
This is where class mobility has increased and people no longer identify specifically with one class.
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What is class solidarity?
Voting in block as a class.
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Why did class dealignment happen in the 1980s?
Thatcher and privatization - embourgeoisement
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What is The Dominant Ideology Theory?
The media reflects the dominant prevailing ideology. Others will be influenced by that.
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What is the Agenda Setting Theory?
This is where the media is seen as setting the agenda for which elections are fought. - Dunleavy and Husbands (1985)
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What is The Rational Choice Theory?
Individuals make a rational choice based on Issue Voting, party leaders, economic voting and Governing record.
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What is Issue Voting - Spatial
Parties looking to attract centre ground - Middle England - Blairrites
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What is Issue Voting - Calence
A party's chance is dependent upon its abillity to convince voters that it can deliver on key issues (Security, economy)
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Issues facing the 2010 General Election
Economy (70%), Immigration (49%), Crime (42%), NHS (36%)
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How much of the 2010 General Election media coverage was issues?
74% of bulletins touching on the state of the economy.
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2010 General Elections Brown mentions?
74% of all Labour politicans mentioned was Brown
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2010 General Election Cameron mentions?
71% of all Tory politicians mentioned was Cameron
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What is Economic voting?
Economic voting is where citizens vote for the political party which is most likely to improve their personal economic situation.
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What lead did the Tories have over Labour in managing the economy polls in 2015?
25%
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What is tactical voting?
An individual chooses to vote for a candidate that is not his or her preferred candidate.
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What is protest voting?
Voters back a candidate other than their normal choice. - Often seen at by election or local council elections.
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What is swing?
A measurement of the movement ov votes from one party to another.
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What is a uniform swing?
A swing across the country of 1% would see MPs with a majority of less than 1% to the other side lose their seat.
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What swing did the Tories have from Labour in 2010?
4.95%
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What is differential swing?
Where the national figure masks a different swing in constituencies.
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Give an example of differential swing in 2010.
South West Devon 11.7% compared to UK 4.95%
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What is churn?
Voting appears to be stable, despite large numbers of people switching votes from one party to another. This balances it out.
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How many votes did the Sun cost the Tories when it backed Blair in 1997?
500000
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What did the Sun say after the 1992 election?
"It was the Sun wot won it"
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2010 Exit polls
Accurate to within 4 seats of the three major political parties
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Opinion Polls 2015
Famously prediced a hung parliament - Outcome of Tory majority - Exit Poll was closer but not 100% correct.
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Opinion Poll impact?
Tactical voting - Low / high turnout - Underdogs - Banned in France in final days.
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What factors lead to poll errors?
Respondents not registered voters - Respondents were lying (shy Tories) - Unrepresentative - floating voters
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Media Theory - Manipulative thory
Mass media is controlle by an elite that uses it with the sole purpose of preserving its own position.
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Media Theory - Hegemonic Theory
Those who work in the media have a view point and write from a perspective of that.
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Media Theory - Pluralist Theory
Individuals choose to read and watch what they support - Guardian left wing. Mail Right wing
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What is selective exposure?
People read newspapers they support
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What is selective perception?
Individuals mentally edit the media that theye are exposde to filtering out content.
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What is selective retention?
People tend to forget programme and newspapers content that challenges their views.
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What is a by-election?
An election to replace another MP who is dead / resigned.
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Between 1979 and 1997, how many by elections did the Tories lose net?
22
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Between 2005 and 2010, how many seats saw a big swing.
excess of 10% in 5 of 14 elections
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By election in Copeland 2017
First gain in a by election for a Governing party since 1982. Swing of 7% to Tories - extraordinary circumstances - Corbyn
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By election turnout 2009 Glasgow North East
33.2%
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Spin doctors
Alastair Campbell for Blair during his reign.
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Focus Groups
Caeron used them to try and woo female voters.
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Professional Advertising companies
Saatchi and Saatchi "Labour isn't working" 1979
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Purposes of election campaigns?
Mobilise core voters - Recruit floating voters in target seats - Gain a cross-party appeal
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Methods for election campaigns?
Photo opportunities, press conference, sound bites, bill boards, party political broadcasts, TV debates
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Local campaigns
Grassroots campaign. cavassing
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How many people had made up their mind at the start of the 1992 election?
63%
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How many people had not made up their mind in the final week of the 1992 election?
21%
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How many people had not made up their mind on the final day of the 1992 election?
6%
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How many people found the 2001 election campaign boring?
70% said they had little or no interest in the campaign.
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What did the Sun call the 2001 election campaign?
the "most boring" campaign ever
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What impact did the 2010 TV debates have?
Cleggmania - However vote increase of only 1%
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What does the decline in % of votes for the main parties say?
Partisan dealignment
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How many people voted for the two main parties in 1992?
77.5%
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How many people voted for the two main parties in 2015?
67.3%
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What is negative campaigning?
Campaigning about the negatives of the opposite side?
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2015 General election negative campaigning
The Note by Liam Byrne saying their is "no money left"
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What is Duverger's Law?
Competing for the centre ground to win
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Party Leaders Effect
Leaders debate
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What is The Faklands Factor
Thatcher's approval rating went from 41% in April 1982 to 56% in May 1982
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Corbyn / May Leadership
May consistently seen in the polls as better Prime Minister. One poll 51% to 13%
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Other cards in this set

Card 2

Front

"There is overwhelming evidence that women are more conservatively inclined than men"

Back

What did Pulzer say in 1967?

Card 3

Front

Women's role was 'in the home' and they were more likely to vote for Tory family values and Law and Order.

Back

Preview of the back of card 3

Card 4

Front

Society - Changing roles of women : New Labour - Minister for women and All women's short list.

Back

Preview of the back of card 4

Card 5

Front

7%

Back

Preview of the back of card 5
View more cards

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