Climate Wars

What is ENSO?
ENSO is the "El Nino South Oscillation" and it is a period of irregular changes in wind and sea surface temperatures
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What is the effect of dry El Nino years?
They double the risk of armed conflicts in tropical countries heavily effected by ENSO
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Who published a study on dry El Nino years and when?
Hsiang et al in 2011
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What is Climate Change?
An anthropocentric process
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What did the IPCC determine about climate change in 2013?
That it is 95% likely that at least 50% of climate change is anthropocentric
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What is anthropocentric Climate Change?
Climate Change by human causes
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Where is particularly vulnerable to the effects of Climate Change and why?
Sub-Saharan Africa as there is a delicate balance between society and the environment
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What did Burke et al find?
A 50% increase in armed conflicts between 1981-2002
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What did Burke et al state was needed in Africa?
"Urgent need to reform African governments and foreign aid donors policies to deal with rising temperatures"
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What did Buhaug find in 2010?
No significant casual relationship between civil wars and climate change over the past 50 years in sub-Saharan Africa
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What evidence is there against Buhaug's findings?
A growing body of theoretical and empirical research that suggests there is a link between Climate Change and conflicts
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What claims are there to support Buhaug's study?
There are claims that Climate Change doesn't cause conflict, but does the opposite in creating peace and stability
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What did Hsiang, Burke and Miguel find in their 2013 quantitative study of 60 analysis's
String casual relationships between Climate Change and human conflicts across all major regions in the world
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Who criticised Hsiang, Burke and Miguel's quantitative study?
Raleigh et al (2014)
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How has Climate Change become a security concern for states?
It threatens the existence of states, citizenship of people, food rights and climate related migration
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Give an example of a state gravely in danger from Climate Change
Kiribati
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How much are sea levels predicted to rise?
3.3 metres
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How is Kiribati threatened by rising sea levels?
They are low lying and much of their territory will be submerged and much of their population displaced
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Who offered to house Kiribati nationals?
New Zealand
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What concerns could rising sea levels raise regarding state security?
Conflicts: Kiribati could preemptively strike at those who it deems responsible for climate change (as unlikely it is)
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How does Kiribati's situation raise concerns in the international community?
How will bigger nations react to their security being threatened; climate change as a weapon and cause for war?
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What did Waever (1995) state about Securitisation and Climate Change?
The importance of the threat allows for unconventional political action, i.e. war
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What is a resource conflict?
A conflict based of subsistence needs
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Give examples of resource conflicts according to the Global Policy Forum
Angola, Liberia and Sierra Leone
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Where are resource conflicts more likely to occur and why?
Developing countries because of the mass globalisation and rapid population growth leads to competition for resources
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What did Samset (2009) find a weak correlation of?
Scarcity of resources and conflicts
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What resource conflicts have arisen in the Middle East?
Tigris-Euphrates basin, War-fare in Iraq and the Jordan River Basin (1964-67)
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What resource conflicts have arisen in Africa?
Volta River, Zambezi River, Nile River Basin and Niger Basin
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What resource conflicts have arisen in Asia?
Indus River Basin and Ganges River
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What caused the Israeli-Jordan Water War (1964-67)
Arab states diverting water from the Jordan River Basin to the Yarmouk River which decreased Israel's National Water Capacity Project by 35%
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How did the Israeli-Jordan Water War escalate in 1964?
Israel declared the diversion of water as an infringement on its sovereign rights
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What led to Israeli military involvement in the Israeli-Jordan Water War in 1965?
Israel-Syria border shootings of Israeli farmers, the Israeli military then bombed the machinery that was used for the diversion project
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How long was the military engagement in the Israeli-Jordan Water War?
6 days
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How much of the worlds population inhabits the Middle East and how much of its water supply?
6% of the population, 2% of the water supply
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What is MENA?
An acronym for "Middle East and North Africa"
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How many of the worlds most scarce water countries are located in MENA?
12
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What can't most MENA countries and how is this expected to effect them by 2050?
They can't sustain their water supply and the water availability is expected to have halved by capital in 2050
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What is a Just Cause for war?
An act that threatens the sovereignty of a state
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What is proportionality in Just Cause?
Where whats being protected out weighs the cost of the fighting
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Why must there be a reasonable chance of success with Just Cause?
A state can only justly wage war if there is a reasonable chance of success, small states need to rely on outside help such as humanitarian intervention
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Why does Just Cause need legitimate authority?
A war can only be sanctioned by someone who speaks on the states behalf
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What are the right intentions of using a Just Cause?
It can right an ongoing wrong and pursue just ends
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How is a war Just?
All other deterrents have been attempted and failed
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Give examples of war deterrents
UN Security Council Resolutions, trade bans and sanctions
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How is Jus in Bello's (Laws of War) "Principle of Discrimination" still applicable in resource conflicts?
Combatents must distinguish between civilians and soldiers, civilian property can also not be targeted
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How is Jus in Bello's (Laws of War) "Principle of Proportionality" still applicable in resource conflicts?
The harm caused by a particular military action carried out during war must not be disproportionate with the contribution of the attack/action to victory in the overall war
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Other cards in this set

Card 2

Front

What is the effect of dry El Nino years?

Back

They double the risk of armed conflicts in tropical countries heavily effected by ENSO

Card 3

Front

Who published a study on dry El Nino years and when?

Back

Preview of the front of card 3

Card 4

Front

What is Climate Change?

Back

Preview of the front of card 4

Card 5

Front

What did the IPCC determine about climate change in 2013?

Back

Preview of the front of card 5
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