Changing Character of Warfare

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What were PMCs known as historically?
Mercenaries
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What has happened to the use of PMCs in the past decade?
It has increased
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What is happening to most aspect of government in recent years?
Privatisation of all
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What relations are effected by PMCs?
Civil-military relations
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In 2007 what was the global market ($) for PMCs?
$138.6 billion
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In 2014 what was the global market ($) for PMCs?
$218.4 billion
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What is the umbrella term for all types of PMCs?
Private Military and Security Companies
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What is the difference between PMCs and PSCs?
PMCs provide narrow and specific military services that feeds the defence industry, PSCs are broader and feed into the security industry e.g. intelligence services
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Who are the typical members of Military Consulting Companies (MCCs)?
Military veterans, highly experienced and trained, offer expertise to the state from consulting companies
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What do MCCs do?
Provide the government with expertise on certain aspects of the military e.g. how to reorganise the management of a specific sector of the military
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What do Military Provider Companies and Support Companies (MPCs) do?
They provide logistical and active on the ground support
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List some of the services that PMCs offer
Protect people (e.g. experts) and assets (e.g. oil), training & recruiting of forces, intelligence collection & analysis, operation of advanced tech, military logistics & maintenance (e.g. portaloos), language interpretation and interrogation
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Give an example of a PMC
Babcock, G4S, Dyncorp
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Give an example of someone who works for a PMC
Paul Newton (retired 3 star general)
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What percentage of flight training hours for the RAF does Babcock provide?
70%
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Name some of the scandals surrounding G4S
London 2012 Olympics, Israeli prisons, detention centres, prothetic limb tagging of prisoners etc
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How many countries does G4S work in?
125
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How many employees does G4S have?
A quarter mil
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How much did Dyncorp turn over in 2010?
$3.4 billion
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Where was there the most third country nationals working: Iraq or Afghanistan?
Iraq
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Why was there a reliance on host country nationals in Afghanistan?
Language barrier and sustenance of locals, preventing illegal activities
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Factors behind the growth of PMCs
Changes in demand and supply, military interventions, war on terror, stabilisation operations, reforms of military, alleged benefits
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Which governments tend to support PMCs?
Centre-right
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What are the alleged benefits of PMCs?
Cuts and savings in public expenditure, need for professionalism and specialist expertise, security gap
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Why is privatisation good?
Gives more freedom, comparative advantage, increased competition, boosts the economy, cost saving, increased efficiency, don't have to pay sick leave and pensions government-funded, no duty of care
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How long is the max deployment of British forces?
Six months
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How long is the max deployment of the American forces?
A year
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Which country has a higher level of PTSD in its forces?
America
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What are the (non-literal) costs of PSCs?
Loss of accountability, contracting costs, public good vs private good,
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What is a fixed cost contract?
Where the company sets one price
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What is an issue with a fixed cost contract?
The company cannot account for risk and so often pull out of contracts or renegotiate
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What is a cost-plus contract?
A contract where there is no set fee
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What is the problem with cost plus contracts?
The price can spiral out of control
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What is a sole-source contract?
Where only one company is used
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What is the problem with a sole-source contract?
It stifles competition
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What are problems with the PMC market?
The market is not free, there is no instant supply and demand, PSC industry is entrenched and only has a few key players, outsourcing is only effective when there is competition among suppliers and lack of competition raises prices
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What can't a government do in a time of need PMC-wise?
Seek a bargain
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What are the risks of PMCs?
Pulling out of contracts, walk outs, government dependency on PMCs, PMC workers can be mistaken for insurgents, friction argument and cowboy argument and impunity argument
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Give an example of a PMC walk out
Gurkha guards in Kabul threatening to stop protecting US embassy
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What is the friction argument?
PSCs are not integrated into the chain of command and this creates uncertainty and friction on the battlefield
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What is the cowboy argument?
PMCs aggravate conditions on the ground, as they employ aggressive tactics and alienate the population
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Where is there an example of the cowboy argument?
Iraq war
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What is the impunity argument?
The presence of PMCs thwart military intervention goal of establishing legitimate government as they enjoyed impunity for the wrong reasons
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What is impunity?
Exemption from punishment or freedom from the injurious consequences of an action.
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What of plato's terms can be applied to the accountability of PMCs?
Who guards the guardians?
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What is there a lack of in wartime PMCs?
Accountability
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Define strategy
'The use of military engagements for the object of war'
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What is peace?
The absence of war
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List strategy means and types
Soft power, military etc
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Give a specific example of how globalisation has impacted strategic studies
Little is known of the Congolese conflict and yet there have been more killed in that conflict than in Syria
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What are Mearsheimer's five assumptions?
The international system is anarchic, all states have some offensive capability, states are always uncertain of others intentions, states seek to survive and states are rational
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What problems come with collective action?
Cheating, free riding and buckpassing
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When was Clausewitz born?
1780
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What wars did Clausewitz fight in?
Napoleonic Wars
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What did Clausewitz die of?
Cholera
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What is the name of Clausewitz's book?
On War
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What is the only source of war according to Clausewitz?
Politics
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If the source of war is politics, then what determines the character of war?
Policy
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What type of interests does war serve according to Clausewitz?
Political interests
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What is Causwitz's most famous line?
War is politics by other means
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According to Clausewitz, what do all wars have the ability to do?
Escalate
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What is Clausewitz's trinity?
Politics, chance, passion and resource
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What does Clausewitz mean by politics and reason in his trinity?
The business of government
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What does Clausewitz mean by chance in his trinity?
The role of luck and uncertainty
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What does Clausewitz mean by passion and resource in his trinity?
Emotion and rivalry, the extraction of resources e.g. how to get people to die for a flag
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What is more important in Clausewitz's eyes, offence or defence?
Defence
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Who first coined the term total war?
General Ludendorff
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What does total warfare mean?
The complete escalation of warfare, both civilian and militarily
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What does levee en masse mean?
Complete conscription of all able bodied people
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What don't the West's current wars involve?
High levels of societal participation
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What does the non-civilian nature of western wars mean for war casualties?
The public have a low tolerance for them
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What are spectator wars?
They are wars in which there is no home involvement in the war
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Give an example of a spectator war
Iraq or Afghanistan
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What has Colin McInnes researched?
Spectator wars
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What are the characteristics of spectator wars according to Colin McInnes?
They're away from the homeland, the enemy is narrowly defined as the regime of a target state, desire to minimise collateral damage, force protection is priority and thus technology and air power is emphasised
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What type of warfare does not have a future?
Total war
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What is RMA?
Revolutions in military affairs
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After what war did RMA begin?
Post Gulf-War
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When was the Gulf War?
1990-1991
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What does an RMA?
A complete technological innovation of warfare
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What is the problem with the RMA of the West?
It has led to asymmetric methods of warfare from enemies
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What is asymmetric warfare?
Hostile action between forces that are vastly dissimilar in force composition, defense posture, cultural and philosophical perspectives on violence and war, and/or strategic objectives
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Give an example of an asymmetric form of warfare
Terrorism, insurgency, nuke terrorism
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What is the scope of the strategic aims of the superior belligerent in asymmetric warfare?
Limited
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What is the scope of the strategic aims of the inferior belligerent in asymmetric warfare?
Unlimited
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What is the scope of the strategic means of the superior belligerent in asymmetric warfare?
Unlimited
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What is the scope of the strategic means of the inferior belligerent in asymmetric warfare?
Limited
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What is the scope of the technology of the superior belligerent in asymmetric warfare?
Superior
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What is the scope of the technology of the inferior belligerent in asymmetric warfare?
Inferior
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What is the scope of the will of the superior belligerent in asymmetric warfare?
Conditional
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What is the scope of the will of the inferior belligerent in asymmetric warfare?
Unconditional
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What is the casualty tolerance of the superior belligerent in asymmetric warfare?
Low
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What is the casualty tolerance of the inferior belligerent in asymmetric warfare?
High
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What is the military culture of the superior belligerent in asymmetric warfare?
Clausewitzian
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What is the military culture of the inferior belligerent in asymmetric warfare?
Indirect
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What two things have brought about the 'new wars' thesis?
Globalisation and the end of the Cold War
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What are the differences between new and old wars?
Goals, methods and finance
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What has happened to the previously public nature of warfare under new wars?
Privatised and PMCs
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What sentiment has become more prominent under new wars?
Identity
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What are the aims of wars nowadays in comparison to before?
For economy, not state
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Name a new tool of warfare under new wars
Media
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What has been the numerical ratio shift in combatant to civilian deaths from old to new wars?
8:1 to 1:8
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What does antithesis mean?
Opposite
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What is the antithesis of total war according to Rupert Smith?
War amongst the people
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What has become the dominant form warfare since the Cold War?
Asymmetric warfare
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Name a theorist of new wars
Rupert Smith
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List some of Smith's conclusions
The ends of war (aims) are changing, we fight amongst people, our conflicts are timeless, we fight to preserve the force, new uses of old things, belligerents are often non-state actors
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In new wars, what don't we do towards our enemy?
Respect them
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What does Smith mean by we don't respect our enemy?
We expect them to conform to our plans and be inferior to us
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What has happened to Clausewitz's concept of battlefield warfare under new wars?
It has dissolved, battlefield is the globe, urban warfare where we can't tell who is a civilian and a combatant
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What does the rise of the media mean for war?
War is brought into the homes of millions who vote and influence politicians, leaders cannot make blind decisions
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What are the critiques of new wars thesis?
It's not so new, new wars carry old roots and legacies, the cold war still lives, the civilian-combatant switch is disputed
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Give an example of where the civilian-combatant deaths switch can be disputed
Human Security Report concluded that genocides are decreasing since the Cold War
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Give examples of why wars are fought nowadays
Doing the right thing, persecution, economy, R2P
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What is being eroded gradually under new wars?
Sovereignty
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Give an example of an R2P conflict
Libya
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What are the two types of politics?
Domestic and International
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How are domestic politics structured?
Hierarchically
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How are international politics structured? (trick)
Anarchical, they're not structured
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In theory, what is at the top of the hierarchy in domestic politics?
Government and the state
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In theory, who is at the top of the international hierarchy?
The international order
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Give an example of external interference in a civil war
Congolese War
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Who said anarchy is what states make of it?
Wendt
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What year was Waltz's book?
1959
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Who came up with the three levels of analysis of international politics?
Waltz
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What are Waltz's three levels of international analysis?
Human nature and individual behaviour, states domestic characteristics and the global level
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What is the security dilemma?
The spiralling build of security by states due to insecurity in response to other states
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What happens militarily when a state does not know the intention of another state who is building arms?
The state will continue to procure and build arms not knowing if its for offensive or defensive purposes
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According to Realists, what polarity is most stable?
Bipolarity
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Who came up with bipolar peace?
Waltz
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According to Realists what is the least stable polarity?
Multipolarity
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What are alliances a form of?
External balancing
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List causes of war
Security theory, resource curse, polarity, myths of empire, human nature, anarchy, rationality, regime type and bureaucracy
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Who would argue that human nature causes war?
Carr (1939)
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Who would argue that empire causes war?
Jack Snyder
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What is an issue with the theory that human nature causes war?
Doesn't explain variance
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Give an example of a a regime type theory of war
Democratic Peace Theory
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Who advocates democratic peace theory?
Michael Doyle
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Who do new wars reject?
Clausewitz
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What is the CNN effect?
The theory that the introduction of 24 hour news has a major effect on a state's foreign policy
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What are combatants now often dressed in?
Civilians clothing
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What can now finance conflict due to globalisation?
Illegal trade
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Give an example of an illegal trade financing conflict
Blood diamonds in the Congo
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What is the resource curse?
The idea that a state with natural resources is cursed by conflict due to wars of economy etc e.g. Congo
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Give an example of a peaceful country with natural resources
Norway
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What is 4GW?
Fourth generation warfare
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What could Clausewitz not have predicted?
Media and technology
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Give an example of a historical terrorist
Guy Fawkes
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How often has the world been free of any significant conflict according to Cioffi-Revilla?
Once every twelve years
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In 2013 what did the Stockholm Peace Research Institute estimate that worldwide military spending was?
$1.75 trillion
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What was America spending in Afghanistan per month in 2012?
9 billion
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What has happened to warfare since WW2?
Blurred lines between civilian and combatant, less inter-state conflict, technology change, expansion of domains, no total wars
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What are the four trends since the 1970s in war?
Decline in inter-state war, warfare more common, decline in battle deaths, regional spread of armed conflict
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Name an organisation with an increased role in peacekeeping which has a conflicted role as civilian/combatant
EU/UN NATO etc
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What is the estimated number of child soldiers?
800,000
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What percentage of war casualties since 1945 have been civilian?
Ninety
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What id democratisation?
The process from autocracy to democracy
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When do ethnic conflicts become salient?
When they are used for electoral reasons
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What are the three models of civil-military relations?
Huntington, Janowitz, Cohen
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Who is considered the main theorist of civil-military relations?
Huntington
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What is the name of Huntington's model?
Separation model
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What did Huntington suggest?
Separation between the military and the state, civil and military are two completely separate things, autonomous military, government makes policy and army sticks to what it knows, political neutrality of the armed forces, military is subordinate
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What date was Huntington's book published??
1957
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What is the name of Huntington's work?
The Soldier and the State
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what is the issue with Huntington's model?
It can lead to personnel ignoring repercussions of decisions and blaming government, civilians hostile to dissent and assumes that the military is apolitical
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Give an example of military personnel ignoring the repercussions of their actions
Richards in Afghanistan who spread out a limited number of troops in a counter-insurgency without informing the government which meant that they were overrun
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Give an example of civilians being hostile to dissent
First intifada leading to an escalation in terror attacks
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What is the name of Janowitz's model?
The connection model
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Why has civil military relationships changed?
As technology has developed and the nature of war has changed there has been a need for role differentiation, civilians cannot do military
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What are the characteristics of an impotent military?
Weak, over-controlled, over-supervised
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What are the characteristics of a predatory military?
Prey on society, unaccountable, corruption and coup/initiate conflict
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What is militarism?
The military controlling civilians
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Who said 'you do the fighting i'll do the talking'?
Cameron
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What is a military that does not obey the government?
Not professional
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What should the military be according to Huntington?
Professional
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What does Janowitz reject of Huntington?
That there needs to be a division of labour in the civil-military relation
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According to Janowitz, what kind of relationship can the civil-military enjoy?
A close one
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What is the ideal type of soldier according to Janowitz?
Citizen soldier
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Why is a good link between the civil-military good according to Janowitz?
Can foster harmony between authority and expertise & civil-military
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What are issues with Janwotiz's theory?
Presumes level of engagement which many societies now reject, can invite military intervention into debate and erode civilian authority, politicisation of the military military becomes more like police than army
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What is constabulary?
where the military seeks viable international relations rather than victory owing to the new nature of wars
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What is the name of Cohen's model?
Dialogue model
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Whose perspective does Cohen adopt?
Clausewitz
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What is the dialogue model?
Politics is completely entrenched in the military and therefore, the civil-military is completely intertwined, there is no line dividing them, both domains overlap, hard to separate military from politics
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Why is military adaptation/innovation important?
Achievement of political goals, could shift the balance of power, aids the fulfilment of national goals, avoidance of defeat, survival, explains international events
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Give examples of where a states failure to adapt militarily led to a major international event
Russia in WW1 becoming soviet
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Give an example of tactical innovation
Nelson at Trafalgar sailing in a T formation instead of a line
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Give an example of institutional innovation
The Royal Air Force turning into its own body
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Give an example of transformation in peace
Japanese observations of British ships in Asia led to steam ships
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Give an example of domestically driven transformation
The French levee en masse after the domestic French revolution, all aristocratic naval leaders had been guillotined and thus the navy had inexperienced leaders
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What date was Rosen's work?
1988
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What type of innovation does Rosen suggest?
Top down
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According to Rosen, who leads innovation?
Mavericks
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Give an example of a Maverick
Fischer
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According to Rosen, what can be a powerful motivator for innovation?
The risk of defeat
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What year was Posen's work?
1984
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What did Posen suggest?
That militaries have too many vested interests
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According to Posen, what is required in order to facilitate innovation?
Transformative civilian leadership
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What year was Farrell's work published?
2010
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What type of innovation does Farrelll suggest?
Bottom up
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When was the first gen warfare?
18th century
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What type of warfare was 1st gen?
Lines of battle
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What is 2nd gen warfare?
Linear, mass, fire and movement
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What was third gen warfare?
Blitzkrieg
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What is fourth gen warfare?
Insurgency and asymmetry
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What is hybrid warfare?
Mix of all of the worst forms of warfare
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Give examples of revolutions of warfare
Hybrid warfare, four generations, cyber revolution etc
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What was the only form of revolution which did not prompt a reciprocal action?
Nuclear
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Name a leader who placed emphasis on technological revolutions
George Bush
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What is the latest form of RMA?
Cyber
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How many people has the IRA killed?
3,500
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What is terrorism?
A tactic
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Give examples of historical terrorism
Kamikaze pilots, assassinations, Tamal Tigers, Lockerby, black widows etc
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What are the four waves of terrorism?
Anarchist, anti-colonial, new left and religious
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What was the anarchist wave of terrorism?
Anti-aristocratic terrorism which began in Russia, tries to sway the domestic population to a certain view
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When was the beginning of the anti-colonial wave of terrorism?
Post WWs
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Give an example of an anti-colonial terrorism?
Algeria
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What wave of terrorism are we currently experiencing?
Religious
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What was the new left wave of terrorism?
Rebelling against capitalism
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By what factors does Cronin define terrorism?
Political in nature, perpetrated by non-state actors, deliberate but indiscriminate targeting of non-combatants
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What does Ilan Pape cite as a cause of terrorism?
Asymmetric resistance against foreign military coercion/occupation
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What does Abrahms cite as the cause of terrorism?
Social identity
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What is RMA?
A structurational transformation of societal, technological and military affairs
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What causes RMA?
Structurational changes to the international system, increased technology etc
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What is insurgency?
The use of violence by non-state actors in order to achieve a political goal
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What are the causes of insurgency?
Political grievance, economic grievances, the capture of economic resources by non-state groups, Religious reasons, Ethnic reasons
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What are some of the tactics used by insurgents?
Terrorism, guerrilla, organised crime, attaining foreign support, staying hidden, playing with the weaknesses of the government and use of natural resources
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What has happened to the use of PMCs in the past decade?

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It has increased

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Front

What is happening to most aspect of government in recent years?

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Preview of the front of card 3

Card 4

Front

What relations are effected by PMCs?

Back

Preview of the front of card 4

Card 5

Front

In 2007 what was the global market ($) for PMCs?

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