The Political World in 2017

-          YouGov have been asking people since April 2004 their thoughts on the EU

o   There are short term fluctuations but generally the EU has been favourable

§  Not overwhelming support

o   The sovereign debt crisis was a turning point

-          Determiners for EU support:

o   Conception of community: national identity and immigration

o   Cost/benefit analysis of EU membership

o   Cues from elite, politicians and media

-          Historical precedent stated that in the vast majority of this type there is a movement back towards the status quo

o   As seen in the Scottish referendum and the Quebec referendum in the 1990s

-          The campaign to remain concentrated heavily on the economy

o   As taken from the Scottish referendum remain campaign, it was known the economic argument had been effective then

o   The leave campaign never set out to win the economic argument they were looking to neutralise it                

§  To some extent they managed that

-          In polls, the British public believed the UK would be worse off economically if we left the EU and…