How stable and predictable are general elections?

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PREDICTABLE?

  • was it predictable in 2019 and in 2017?
  • did people predict the right - opinion polls
  • 2019 (opinion polls) - Conservative, but underestimated the majority
  • 2017 wasn't predictable. Thought Theresa May would get a large majority, but she lost her 12  seat majority (hung majority). Instead Corbyn did better.
  • 2015 predicted to be hung (no majority)
  • 2010 opinion polls were correct
  • the exit polls are very accurate
  • 2001, 2005, 2007 predicted a big…

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